Letters from Members - 2005

Wed, March 23, 2005 6:15 pm

A 25 basis point increase on 100 basis points is 25% right. So a 25 basis point on 200 basis points is 12.5% right. And So forth. So what did the Fed in the 1920's do it raised rates for over 2 years off and on until they reached 5% approx. in August of 1929 only to raise the rate a full 100 basis points on 500 basis points or 20%. The rest is history in a serious of miscalculations.

Fast forward today. Oil some think is artificially high due to lack of production or manipulation by foreign countries. When Oil prices go up John Doe in America has to find the money from other areas so he cuts back whether it's dining out, playing golf, buying sports tickets or whatever. Oil acts as a tax moreso in the economy today than in the 70's. So when looking at inflation look at it without energy in the equation for analysis sakes. We've got a 1% or so inflation rate and who really knows, as it could be a negative rate without the energy manipulation going on. So the comparison to the 1920's comes into play. We are still under a year in Fed rate increases where as they went over 2 years if not mistaken. It would be interesting to know what percentage increase they did from their starting point of increases to that fateful August meeting that started the cards falling?

Tue, March 8, 2005 3:49 pm

Instead of focusing on the Tech bubble and the same speculators moving into real estate the last several years maybe they need to go back and research what happened to the second and third tier Savings & Loan Executives. My instincts tell me they have scattered and are now in the real estate sector (particularly housing) in all areas and the public markets as well as other financial institutions.

Sat, February 19, 2005 3:24 pm

Do you really know what inflation historically is like in the 1970's and early 80's?

Do you really know that 2% inflation is not really historically considered inflation?

If not for the deflation theories would it have been feasible or possibly well timed for The Fed and others to implement policies to ensure growth and no double dip recession after 9/11?

If you take away the housing market out of the economy, how good is the rest of the economy performing now and over the last few years?

If there is inflation why is'nt the Fed jacking interest rates up very fast?

Do you remember the interest rates in the 70's and 80's?

What do you think will happen to the housing market once interest rates start to really climb?

Why do you think the dollar has been allowed to fall?

Why do you think energy prices have remained high?

Can there be inflation in a high tech economy with globalization?

Can there be inflation after political instability?

Do consumers still have choice in the sense of who they fly with, who their telephone company is, cable or satellite, coffee or not, dine out or not, etc...?

If there is inflation why is'nt Gold up about $800 to $1,000 per ounce?

Why have'nt companies been able to pass on their price increases and stick?

Have you looked for a job in the last 10 to 15 years and compared it to earlier job markets and wage growth?

If we take Iraq out of the equation how is the economy faring in terms of the numbers?

Has there been a historical case for inflation with aging populations?

Why was'nt there headlines that deflation is alive when the PPI was negative which it has been periodically?

Do you know the financial history of Andrew Jackson era? (hint....there were surpluses and they paid down the debt, got a whiff of inflation then a depression came soon thereafter)

Mon, February 14, 2005 3:00 pm

If it is possible, in the active traders page where you have the chart of the Dow, is it possible to include the STOF and the MACD, both if possible. It would give us a point of reference.

Thu, February 10, 2005 11:38 am

Dear Sirs,

I am a current member. I would like to change my next billing period from quartly to annual.

Fri, February 4, 2005 11:23 am

I have today filed an investigative complaint with the SEC against Oracle Corp. for deliberate non-payment of 600 shares of PeopleSoft appropriately held for many years in two brokerage accounts and marked for cash settlement upon merger. We are out the $16,000.00 owed since January 10th 2005. Company is refusing all efforts to achieve settlement of these shares now not tradeable.-- We are contemplating class action suit if we can find others in the same predicament - surely, it's not just us!

Tue, February 1, 2005 7:11 pm

* Maybe some group will do a study to see if TASER Gun is reducing crime

* Maybe Private Social Security Accounts can end run and finance our deficits...Personally I would take a 30 year Bond rate or even the 10 year rate over Social Insecurity

* Is real estate finally doing what they have historically done, overbuild?

* Will the FED start to see they are going against what is really going on in the economy. A 3% GDP in the new economy is like 2% in the old economy. A 4% GDP is like a 2.75% GDP in the old economy, etc....

Mon, January 10, 2005 3:42 pm

After talking about Benthos all last week, today it's awarded a $1 million dollar contract and makes a big move and you guys don't even talk about it. You're starting to slip guys.

Wed, January 5, 2005 4:26 pm

Those of us who use the daily price and volume action for technical analysis would appreciate getting the trading volume of the NYSE and Nasdaq as compared to yesterday's volume. At least, at the close of trading, and possibly a time or two during the trading session.