Cara Therapeutics’ Rise Could Continue

Watch Cara Therapeutics into osteoarthritis pain results

Cara Therapeutics (CARA) has soared this month amid the wider biotech rally, but research firm Janney argues the stock could continue higher on a pending release of data from a study of its potential treatment for osteoarthritis pain.


Cara Therapeutics is a clinical-stage researcher focused on treating pain and pruritus, or itching, by targeting the body’s so-called “kappa” #opioid receptors.

The company’s pipeline includes #CR845 and #CR701, the former of which is in advanced studies for both oral and intravenous forms.

In its most recent earnings report on May 4, Cara said it expects top-line data from the Phase 2b trial of oral CR845 for osteoarthritis-related pain in Q2, and the company confirmed on its conference call that the trial is “now fully enrolled at 480 patients and on track for a data readout later in Q2.” Cara’s second quarter ends June 30.


Janney’s Ken #Trbovich said Wednesday he expects “significant volatility” in Cara Therapeutics as investors await the Phase 2 osteoarthritis data.

Highlighting the stock’s all-time highs on the back of the biotech rally and Friday’s announcement of “breakthrough therapy” designation, the analyst nevertheless says positive osteoarthritis data can “easily justify” a move into the $31-$36 range, though he warns that negative results could take the stock to $10-$15.

The long-term potential of oral #CR845 in chronic pain is “tantalizing” for a company whose market cap remains below $1B — with Trbovich offering Nektar’s (NKTR) 42% surge on the back of Phase 3 opioid data as an example — but the analyst cautions that the pending results are only mid-stage and that “a portion” of the potential upside has already been priced in.

Modeling the company on a discounted cash flow basis while factoring any potential dilution necessary to fund and launch oral CR845, Trbovich ends up at $31-$34 per share assuming peak sales of just over $1B.

On the other hand, he expects a retrace to $15 if data is negative, or even as low as $10-$12 if results are particularly bad and investors apply the news to Cara’s pain program for intravenous CR845.


H.C. #Wainwright analyst Corey Davis wrote June 22 that the osteoarthritis data is “expected any day.” #Davis added that Cara’s announcement that week of continuing its Phase 3 trial of I.V.

#CR845 in postoperative pain after an interim analysis — while largely unconnected from the osteoarthritis trial — is “still a slight positive indicator” given the lack of futility or safety signals.


CARA last traded at $27.72.

See our recent post on CARA.

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The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility.

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