The U.S. trade deficit rises to a 6 year high
The U.S. trade deficit rose to a larger than expected $50.5 B, a 6-year high in November, after gaps of $48.9 (was $48.7) B in October and $44.9 B in September, versus a prior 5-year high of $48.8 B last January.
The November gap was $0.5 B wider than indicated by the “advance” trade report thanks to a larger upside import surprise than export surprise.
Exports of goods and services have returned to the cycle-high from October of 2014, while imports are now 4.1% above their level in October of 2014.
Analysts trimmed the Q4 GDP growth estimate to 2.5% from 2.6%, after a 3.2% Q3 rate, with a $38 (was $34) B net export subtraction, following a $16.2 B addition in Q3.
Analysts project a 5% growth rate in real exports in Q4 after a 2.1% rate in Q3, and a 9% growth rate for real imports in Q4 after a 0.7% Q3 contraction rate.
Analysts expect a current account deficit widening to $119.7 B in Q4 from just $100.6 B in Q3.
Analysts expect an annual current account gap of $458 B that will mark a new expansion-high in 2017, following the $452 B prior expansion-high in 2016.
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