Oil Prices Reach Pre-Pandemic Level

Front-month WTI oil futures rallied over 2% to a 13-month high at $60.95.

A flaring up in the Yemeni civil war boosted crude prices, in addition to reflation-trade positioning, which is being aided by the ongoing tumble in world-wide positive Covid test results (now one third the January peak), alongside optimism about vaccination programs and prospects of big stimulus spending in the U.S. and EU.

Crude oil reaches $61 per barrel

Taking step back, the question is how much higher can oil prices go in a sustained manner.

Crude markets are now well into pre-pandemic ranges, yet global demand is not likely be restored for a considerable time.

OPEC lowers demand forecast

OPEC last week cut its 2021 oil demand projection by about 100 M barrels per day due to more severe than anticipated lockdowns in major economies in the first half of the year.

This forecast still assumes a global economic recovery in the latter half of the year on the back of successful vaccination programs. This puts the focus on supply, leaving aside the impact of a softening dollar, which is only a part of the story and is in any case a partial by-product of the demand for oil and other assets in the global reflation trade.

Higher oil prices justify shale production

The OPEC+ group are limiting quotas, which are being reviewed on a monthly basis.

Saudi Arabia unilaterally complemented this regime with an additional two-month output cut, which took effect this month and which has more than offset rising supply out of Libya and Iran.

Without talking numbers, this supply restraint is evidently proving effective given the oil price rise and the recent corresponding draw downs in global crude inventories.

But, U.S. shale oil production, which is viable again after the surge in oil prices, is rising and will have increasing impact — the rig count is already up 70% since the 2020 lows.

This is something the EIA forecasted in its February oil market report.

Then there is there question of continued OPEC discipline.

Saudi Arabia is unlikely to extend its unilateral supply reduction beyond March, as it won’t want to give up market share.

Discipline among the OPEC+ nations will be a factor going forward, and is more likely to weaken than strengthen.

The Saudi-Russian price war last year illustrated how quickly the dam of quota curtailment can burst, although a repetition of that episode seems highly unlikely.

Overall, market sentiment remains strongly bullish.

JPM in a recent note forecast an “epic systemic short squeeze” will unfold over the next month, and a GS note mooted $150.0 as an upside target.

Analysts are less optimistic, being skeptical of the bullish supply gap hypothesis.

The oil industrial is well positioned, in terms of known and unexploited reserves, to respond to any sustained demand increases, while demand-quelling factors, such as the new trend for working from home, and alternative electrical powered transport is increasingly available.

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Rig Counts Rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 8 to 392 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 8 from last week to 392 with oil rigs up 4 to 299, gas rigs up 4 to 92, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 1.

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The U.S. Rig Count is down 398 rigs from last year’s count of 790, with oil rigs down 377, gas rigs down 19 and miscellaneous rigs down 2.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Offshore Rig Count is unchanged

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 16, down 7 year-over-year. The Canada Rig Count is down 3 from last week to 171, with oil rigs down 3 to 95, gas rigs unchanged at 76.

The Canada Rig Count is down 86 rigs from last year’s count of 257, with oil rigs down 72, gas rigs down 14.

The Baker Hughes rig counts are counts of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the U.S., Canada and international markets. The Company has issued the rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of the U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. The monthly international rig count was initiated in 1975.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 73 cents to $56.95 per barrel. Brent crude is up 50 cents to $59.50 per barrel. Gasoline last traded at $1.65 per gallon.

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Rig counts rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 8 to 346 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 8 from last week to 346 with oil rigs up 5 to 263, gas rigs up 2 to 81, and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to 2.

The U.S. Rig Count is down 467 rigs from last year’s count of 813, with oil rigs down 422, gas rigs down 44 and miscellaneous rigs down 1.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is up 3 to 16, down 8 year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is down 9 from last week to 102, with oil rigs down 11 to 41, gas rigs up 2 to 61.

The Canada Rig Count is down 47 rigs from last year’s count of 149, with oil rigs down 47, gas rigs unchanged.

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Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity.  Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week. The international rig count will be released on the last working day of the first week of the month.

The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons.

Brent crude is up $0.69 to $52.19 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is up $0.69 to $49.05 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.40 per gallon, up one cent.

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Rig Counts Decline!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 2 to 310 rigs, breaking the nine-week string of gains

Baker Hughes reports that the U.S. rig count is down 2 from last week to 310 with oil rigs down 5 to 231, gas rigs up 3 to 76, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

Baker Hughes has been reporting weekly rig counts for more than 50 years

The U.S. Rig Count is down 493 rigs from last year’s count of 803, with oil rigs down 440, gas rigs down 53 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 12, down 10 year-over-year. The Canada Rig Count is up 12 from last week to 101, with oil rigs up 3 to 42, gas rigs up 9 to 59.

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The Canada Rig Count is down 36 rigs from last year’s count of 137, with oil rigs down 44, gas rigs up 8.

Brent crude is up $0.50 to $44.70 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is up $0.29 to $42.18 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.17 per gallon, up one cent.

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Rig Counts Rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 5 to 287 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 5 from last week to 287 with oil rigs up 6 to 211, gas rigs down 1 to 73, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

Baker Hughes has been reporting weekly rig counts for more than 50 years

The U.S. Rig Count is down 543 rigs from last year’s count of 830, with oil rigs down 485, gas rigs down 60 and miscellaneous rigs up 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 13, down 8 year-over-year.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
An international offshore rig

The Canada Rig Count is up 3 from last week to 83, with oil rigs up 2 to 42, gas rigs up 1 to 41.

The Canada Rig Count is down 64 rigs from last year’s count of 147, with oil rigs down 60, gas rigs down 4.

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Brent crude is down $0.84 to $41.62 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down $0.93 to $39.70 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.13 per gallon down three cents.

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Rig Counts Rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 13 to 282 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 13 from last week to 282 with oil rigs up 12 to 205, gas rigs up 1 to 74, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

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The U.S. Rig Count is down 569 rigs from last year’s count of 851, with oil rigs down 508, gas rigs down 63 and miscellaneous rigs up 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 14 down 8 year-over-year.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 14

The Canada Rig Count is unchanged from last week at 80, with oil rigs up 1 to 40, gas rigs down 1 to 40.

The Canada Rig Count is down 63 rigs from last year’s count of 143, with oil rigs down 58, gas rigs down 5.

Brent crude is down $0.23 to $42.94 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down $0.12 to $40.84 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.16 per gallon down two cents.

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Rig Counts Rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 3 to 269 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 3 from last week to 269.  That is down 587 units from the 856 rigs working this time a year ago.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners

The number of rigs drilling on land was up 3 week-over-week with a total of 254 units. The number of rigs drilling in inland waters was unchanged at 1 unit for the week. The number of rigs drilling offshore was unchanged at 14.

Baker Hughes publishes rig data weekly

US oil rigs increased by 4 from last week to reach 193 units compared to 712 a year ago. Rigs targeting gas decreased by one unit to reach 73 rigs, 70 fewer than were drilling for gas at this time a year ago.

Brent crude is down $0.52 to $42.82 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down $0.56 to $40.63 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.20 per gallon down three cents.

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Rig Counts Rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 5 to 266 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 5 from last week to 266 with oil rigs up 6 to 189, gas rigs down 1 to 74, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
U.S. Rig Count is down 589 rigs from last year’s count of 855

The U.S. Rig Count is down 589 rigs from last year’s count of 855, with oil rigs down 521, gas rigs down 70, and miscellaneous rigs up 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 14 down 10 year-over-year. The Canada Rig Count is up 4 from last week to 75, with oil rigs up 4 to 37, gas rigs unchanged at 38.

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The Canada Rig Count is down 69 rigs from last year’s count of 144, with oil rigs down 68, gas rigs down 1.

Brent crude is down $1.48 to $39.45 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down $1.49 to $37.25 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.12 per gallon down three cents.

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Rig counts unchanged last week!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count unchanged at 254 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is unchanged from last week at 254 with oil rigs down 3 to 180, gas rigs up 3 to 72, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

The U.S. Rig Count is down 650 rigs from last year’s count of 904, with oil rigs down 562, gas rigs down 90, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 13 and down 13 year-over-year.

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Rig Counts unchanged- See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more

The Canada Rig Count is down 2 rigs from last week to 54, with oil rigs down 1 to 19, gas rigs down 1 to 35, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners

The Canada Rig Count is down 96 rigs from last year’s count of 150, with oil rigs down 86, gas rigs down 10 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

Brent crude is up 17 cents to $45.77 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down 5 cents to $42.97 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.31 per gallon up three cents on the day.

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American Airlines to fire 19,000 employees

American Airlines plans to cut 19,000 jobs if federal aid lapses, cuts to take effect October 1

In a regulatory filing, American Airlines (AAL) said:

“In short, American’s team will have at least 40,000 fewer people working Oct. 1 than we had when we entered this pandemic. We have worked to mitigate as many involuntary reductions as possible through voluntary programs.

Company says it will have 40,000 less employees on October 1

Across the mainline and regional carriers, more than 12,500 of our colleagues have made the difficult decision to leave the company permanently through early out programs or retirement.

Another 11,000 team members have offered to be on a leave of absence in October.

These are important life decisions and we respect and greatly appreciate the sacrifice these team members have made, and continue to make, for American and their fellow team members.

The pandemic has hurt airline the most

Even with those sacrifices, approximately 19,000 of our team members will be involuntarily furloughed or separated from the company on Oct. 1, unless there is an extension of the PSP…

The one possibility of avoiding these involuntary reductions on Oct. 1 is a clean extension of the PSP. Led by your labor unions, with the support of the industry, we have generated enormous bipartisan support for such an extension.

The overwhelming majority of members of both the U.S. House and Senate appreciate that saving jobs in the airline industry through this crisis will mean a quicker economic recovery in the months and years ahead.

And that preserving these essential service jobs will also mean continued commercial air service to all communities, small and large. But, despite this broad bipartisan support, a PSP extension is tied up in a larger COVID-19 relief package, which our elected officials haven’t yet been able to negotiate.

So we must prepare for the possibility that our nation’s leadership will not be able to find a way to further support aviation professionals and the service we provide, especially to smaller communities.”

AAL is down $0.45 to $13.00.

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Rig counts rise!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count up 10 to 254 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is up 10 from last week at 254 with oil rigs up 11 to 183, gas rigs down 1 to 69, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

Rig counts rose for the first time

The U.S. Rig Count is down 662 rigs from last year‘s count of 916, with oil rigs down 571, gas rigs down 93, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 13 and down 15 year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is up 2 rigs from last week to 56, with oil rigs up 1 to 20, gas rigs up 1 to 36, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

The Canada Rig Count is down 83 rigs from last year’s count of 139, with oil rigs down 75, gas rigs down 8 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

Brent crude is down 77 cents to $44.13 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down 75 cents to $42.07 per barrel.

Gasoline last traded at $1.28 per gallon down a penny on the day.

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Rig counts continue to decline!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 5 to 258 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 5 rigs from last week to 258 with oil rigs down 4 to 181, gas rigs down 1 to 75, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

The U.S. Rig Count is down 700 rigs from last year’s count of 958, with oil rigs down 603, gas rigs down 97, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 12 and down 14 year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is up 8 rigs from last week to 26, with oil rigs unchanged at 6 and gas rigs up 8 to 20.

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The Canada Rig Count is down 91 rigs from last year’s count of 117, with oil rigs down 79 and gas rigs down 12.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners

WTI crude is up $1.06 to $40.67 per barrel. Brent is up 99 cents to $43.34 per barrel.

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American Airlines raises money!

American to sell more than $1.5B in shares, borrows $500M

American Airlines (AAL) announced proposed underwritten public offerings of $750,000,000 of shares of its common stock and $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its convertible senior notes due 2025.

The company intends to grant the underwriters of the offerings a 30-day option to purchase, in whole or in part, up to $112,500,000 of additional shares of Common Stock in the Common Stock Offering and a 30-day option to purchase, in whole or in part, up to $112,500,000 aggregate principal amount of additional Convertible Notes in the Convertible Notes Offering, in each case solely to cover over-allotments, if any.

The company expects to use the net proceeds from the Common Stock Offering and the Convertible Notes Offering for general corporate purposes and to enhance the company’s liquidity position.

The company also announced it intends to enter into a new $500M Term Loan B Facility due 2024 concurrently with the closing of the offering of the Notes.

12-Month chart of American Airlines stock

The company expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes and borrowings under the Term Loan to refinance its delayed draw term loan facility which the company and the Guarantor entered into on March 18, 2020 and is scheduled to mature on March 17, 2021, with the remainder for general corporate purposes and to enhance the company’s liquidity position.

AAL closed at $16.00.

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Boeing 737-Max Recertification Flight is set for later this month

Boeing 737-Max Recertification Flight is scheduled for later this month

Boeing (BA) is targeting late June for a recertification flight on the grounded 737 Max, Bloomberg’s Alan Levin and Julie Johnsson report.

Boeing 737-Max recertification flight set for late June

The company separately is notifying airlines of an important fix to the grounded jetliner’s wiring, said two people familiar with the planning who asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters.

A draft of revised pilot training for the plane, which has been parked around the world since March 2019 as a result of two fatal crashes that killed 346 people, is also being shared with airlines, the people said.

Grounded 737-Max planes

The moves were strong indications that Boeing is finally nearing the end of the jet’s 15-month grounding and controversy that has engulfed the company after the two fatal crashes.

The flight by Federal Aviation Administration pilots to certify that the plane meets safety regulations is one of the critical remaining milestones. However, the people cautioned that the date hasn’t been finalized and has shifted repeatedly as Boeing completed its final work for regulators.

Boeing’s goal has been to return the 737 Max, a critical source of revenue, to commercial service in the third quarter. The company restarted manufacturing the single-aisle jet late last month, ending a five-month halt to work in its 737 factory in the Seattle suburb of Renton, Washington.

The company is revising a software system implicated in the two crashes that repeatedly drove down the noses of the jets due to a malfunction. Reviews of the plane’s safety following its March 13, 2019, grounding also discovered additional flaws that needed upgrading, including its flight-control computer, how electrical wires were bundled and software issues.

The FAA on Wednesday said it won’t approve the plane for passenger service until it is satisfied that all safety-related issues have been addressed.

BA is down 5% to $206.00

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American Airlines reports improved bookings, Shares fly!

American Airlines to fly 55% of July 2019 domestic capacity in July 2020

American Airlines (AAL) announced that, “in response to improving demand for air travel,” American is planning to fly 55% of its domestic schedule and nearly 20% of its international schedule in July 2020 compared to the same period last year.

The airline’s July systemwide capacity amounts to approximately 40% of July 2019 flying.

The company added: “American saw an increase in demand in May. By the last week of May, the airline carried a daily average of about 110,000 customers per day – an increase of 71% over the approximately 32,000 average daily customers the airline served in April.

Compared to the spring, American is increasing frequency of flying from hubs, including Dallas Fort Worth International Airport and Charlotte Douglas International Airport to destinations customers are searching and booking most, with increased flying to major cities in Florida, Gulf Coast cities as well as mountain destinations.

AAL shares jump 35% on improved bookings

The airline also increased frequency of flying to Asheville, North Carolina, Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina for business and leisure travelers.”

The firm  said: “While international demand continued to be diminished, today marked the return of service to eight international destinations.

These include service from Dallas-Fort Worth to Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt, as well as service from Miami to Antigua in the Caribbean and Guayaquil and Quito in South America. American also restored additional service to London from Chicago and New York. 

The airline said: “American Airlines will begin reopening Admirals Club lounges in phases, beginning June 22, after making improvements to adapt the clubs and product offerings to reinforce the well-being of customers and everyone who works in the clubs…

American will continue to adhere to CDC guidelines, use enhanced cleaning measures and provide limited food and beverage offerings to help ensure the well-being of customers and team members.”

AAL is up 35% to $16.05.

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