Auto Industry to lose $210B in revenue this year

Chip shortages will cost auto industry $210B in 2021

Global consulting firm AlixPartners released its latest forecast regarding how much the ongoing semiconductor shortage is costing the worldwide automotive industry.

The firm’s updated estimate is that the shortage will cost the industry globally $210B in lost revenues this year, up markedly from its estimate in May of $110B.

In terms of vehicles, AlixPartners is now forecasting that production of 7.7M units will be lost in 2021, up from 3.9M in its May forecast.

“Of course, everyone had hoped that the chip crisis would have abated more by now, but unfortunate events such as the COVID-19 lockdowns in Malaysia and continued problems elsewhere have exacerbated things,” said Mark Wakefield, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners.

“Also, chips are just one of a multitude of extraordinary disruptions the industry is facing-including everything from resin and steel shortages to labor shortages. There’s no room for error for automakers and suppliers right now; they need to calculate every alternative and make sure they’re undertaking only the best options.”

Dan Hearsch, a managing director in AlixPartners’ automotive and industrial practice, added, “There really are no ‘shock absorbers’ left in the industry right now when it comes to production or obtaining material. Virtually any shortage or production interruption in any part of the world affects companies around the globe, and the impacts are now amplified due to all the other shortages. That’s why it’s critical that companies be armed with good information and analysis to begin with, and that they follow through with flawless, determined execution.”

https://www.wsj.com/7b2cd07c-1ca0-4a4b-a6d0-b086323dcad9

Publicly traded companies in the space include Daimler AG (DDAIF), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Honda (HMC), Nissan (NSANY), Stellantis (STLA), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota (TM) and Volkswagen (VWAGY).

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When It rains, It pours!

Workhorse Group suspends deliveries of C-1000 vehicles, recalls 41 that it had delivered

Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS) shares plunged on Wednesday to their lowest in fifteen months after the beleaguered electric-vehicle maker said it will suspend deliveries of its vans and recall units it has already delivered.

Workhorse Group (WKHS) provided an update to its ongoing review of the Company’s business and go-forward operating and commercial plans to transition from an advanced technology start-up to an efficient manufacturing company.

The electric van, called the C-1000, would require additional testing and modifications to existing vehicles in order to certify them under federal motor vehicle safety standards, the company said in a statement.

The Company stopped delivery of its C-1000

The Company has identified a number of enhancements in the production process and design of the C-1000 to address customer feedback, primarily related to vehicle dynamics to increase the vehicles’ payload capacity.

As Workhorse has identified these enhancements and continued its review and redesign of the C-1000, the Company has decided to suspend deliveries of C-1000 vehicles and recall 41 vehicles it has already delivered.

As part of these efforts, the new leadership team has determined that additional testing and modifications to existing vehicles are required to certify the C-1000 vehicles under Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard.

The Company expects to complete testing in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Workhorse intends to provide an update on its operating and commercial plans on its upcoming third quarter 2021 earnings call.

The Company has filed a report with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regarding the need for additional testing and vehicle modifications to certify its C-1000 vehicles under FMVSS, and intends to fully coordinate with NHTSA.

The Company has not received any customer reports of safety issues related to this matter in any of the C-1000 vehicles previously delivered by Workhorse.

Additional details will be available in the Company’s filing with NHTSA.

Accordingly, the Company’s previous statements related to the C-1000’s compliance with NHTSA standards cannot be relied upon and the Company has so notified the Securities and Exchange Commission.

#Cowen analyst Jeffrey #Osborne lowered his price target on the company to $7.50 from $8.50, and also reduced his estimates for 2021 and 2022 after the announcement, saying a “turnaround appears more challenging.” The analyst also expects working capital to likely be challenged due to prepayments for batteries and other critical materials.

According to some reports, the company is being investigated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as disappointment related to losing out on a U.S. Postal Service contract that many had expected Workhorse to win.

WKHS closed at $7.41. Shares have a 52-week high of $42.96.

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Veoneer sold for $3.8B

Magna to acquire Veoneer for $31.25 per share in cash

Magna (MGA) and Veoneer (VNE) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Magna will acquire Veoneer.

The Swedish auto parts maker sold for $3.8B

Pursuant to the agreement, Magna will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Veoneer for $31.25 per share in cash, representing a total value of $3.8B, and an enterprise value of $3.3B, inclusive of Veoneer’s cash, net of debt and other debt-like items as of March 31.

Magna expects to operate Veoneer’s Arriver sensor perception and drive policy software platform as an independent business unit, consistent with Veoneer’s current practice.

In addition, Magna will acquire Veoneer’s global position in restraint control systems.

Following the closing of the transaction, Veoneer will be combined with Magna’s existing ADAS business and integrated into Magna’s electronics operating unit.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Veoneer and Magna boards of directors, and Veoneer’s board of directors unanimously recommends that Veoneer stockholders approve the proposed merger and merger agreement.

In addition, Veoneer stockholders AMF, Cevian, AP4 and Alecta, which collectively represent approximately 40% of Veoneer’s outstanding shares of common stock, have either entered into support agreements with Magna or provided indications of support, pursuant to which they have agreed, among other things and subject to certain conditions, to vote their shares of Veoneer common stock in favor of the transaction.

A special meeting of Veoneer’s stockholders will be convened in connection with the transaction as soon as practicable after the mailing to Veoneer’s stockholders of the proxy statement in connection with the merger.

Magna is rumored to be making the Apple Car

The transaction is expected to close near the end of 2021, subject to the approval of Veoneer’s stockholders, certain regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. The transaction is not subject to any financing conditions.

Veoneer, Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of automotive safety electronics primarily in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers automotive radars, mono-and stereo-vision cameras, night driving assist systems, advanced driver assist systems (ADAS), electronic control units, airbag control units, crash sensors, seat belt pre-tensioner electronic controllers, and ADAS software for highly automated driving (HAD) and autonomous driving (AD). Veoneer, Inc. is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

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Could Li Auto be China’s Tesla?

 Li Auto delivers 8,000 vehicles in Third Quarter

Li Auto Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric sport utility vehicles (SUVs) in China.

It offers Li ONE, a six-seat electric SUV that equipped with a range of extension system and cutting-edge smart vehicle solutions. 

Reports Q3 revenue $369.8M, consensus $290.17M.

Vehicle sales were $363M in Q3, representing an increase of 28.4%.

Li Auto logo

Vehicle margin was 19.8% in Q3, compared with 13.7% in Q2. In October, the company delivered 3,692 Li Ones, representing an increase compared to September.

As of October 31, the company had 41 retail stores covering 36 cities.

Xiang Li, founder, chairman and CEO of Li Auto, commented, “This is our first quarterly earnings release as a public company, and we are pleased to announce robust third quarter results reflecting not only our strong growth momentum driven by the outstanding value proposition of our products, but also our relentless pursuit of operating efficiencies.

We delivered 8,660 Li ONEs in the third quarter, representing a 31.1% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new quarterly record.

Cumulative deliveries in 2020 at the end of October reached 21,852 vehicles.

This is a strong testament to the competitiveness of the Li ONE.

“For the fourth quarter of 2020, we expect our growth momentum to continue with deliveries reaching 11,000 to 12,000 vehicles.”

In September 2020, the Company entered a three-way strategic cooperation with NVIDIA Corporation, the world’s leading artificial intelligence computing company, and NVIDIA’s Chinese partner, Huizhou Desay SV Automotive.

Through this strategic cooperation, Li Auto will be the first OEM equipping its vehicles, the full-size extended-range premium smart SUV to be launched in 2022, with the powerful NVIDIA Orin system-on-a-chip (“SoC”) chipset. Through this cooperation, the Company plans to further increase its R&D investment and accelerate the development of autonomous driving.

LI last traded at $34.10, up 7.1 percent.

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Bitauto taken private at $16 a share

Bitauto enters definitive agreement for going-private transaction

Bitauto (BITA) announced that it has entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Yiche Holding and Yiche Mergersub Limited, a wholly owned Subsidiary of Parent, pursuant to which the company will be acquired by an investor consortium led by Morespark Limited, an affiliate of Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) and Hammer Capital Opportunities Fund L.P. in an all-cash transaction that values the company’s equity at approximately $1.1B.

BitAuto taken private

Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, at the effective time of the Merger, each ordinary share of the company issued and outstanding immediately prior to the Effective Time will be cancelled and cease to exist in exchange for the right to receive $16 in cash without interest, and each outstanding American depositary share of the company will be cancelled in exchange for the right to receive $16 in cash without interest, except for

(a) certain Shares owned by affiliates of Tencent, an affiliate of JD.com (JD), and Bin Li, chairman of the board of directors of the company, which will be rolled over in the transaction ,

(b) Shares owned by Parent, Merger Sub, the company or any of their respective subsidiaries,

(c) Shares held by the ADS depositary and reserved for issuance, settlement and allocation upon exercise or vesting of company’s options and/or restricted share unit awards, and

(d) Shares held by shareholders who have validly exercised and not effectively withdrawn or lost their rights to dissent from the merger pursuant to Section 238 of the Companies Law of the Cayman Islands.

The Merger is currently expected to close in the second half of 2020 and is subject to customary closing conditions including the approval of the Merger Agreement by an affirmative vote of holders of Shares representing at least two-thirds of the voting power of the Shares present and voting in person or by proxy at a meeting of the company’s shareholders. those dissenting shares in accordance with Section 238 of the Companies Law of the Cayman Islands.

Bitauto Holdings Limited provides internet content and marketing services, and transaction services for the automobile industry in the People’s Republic of China. 

BITA closed at $14.33.

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In the market for a used car? You are in luck

A Hertz bankruptcy will flood the market with used vehicles

If you are in the market for a used car, you are in luck. That is, if you have a place to drive to!

According to the Detroit Press, used car prices fell 34.4 percent in April alone. The paper offers solace to it’s readers by mentioning that  used car prices could go up soon due to a shortage of new cars caused by plant closures. The paper however, failed to mention the nearly half a million cars currently sitting ideal on Hertz car lots. With practically no one traveling these days, the need for rental cars has evaporated. Hertz (HTZ) and Avis-Budget (CAR) have suffered the most. Hertz has bigger problems than COVID-19 and that is it’s balance sheet.

There are several stories suggesting a Hertz bankruptcy is around the corner.

Hertz is near bankruptcy

According to Bloomberg, Hertz’s situation is a three-way standoff between Holders of Hertz’s asset-backed securities. They could delay pressuring Hertz to sell down its fleet for a short period of time, but they will need Hertz’s banks to promise to make them whole. The banks, in turn, may not want to take on such a risk, which requires them to bet that either the rental car business or used car prices return to some normal operating level.

A 2-year price chart of Hertz (HTZ), Stockwinners

Meanwhile, controlling shareholder Carl Icahn (IEP) holds a 39% equity stake in the rental company. Bloomberg says that he could put in more money to keep Hertz afloat, but this once again is dependent on a belief that the rental car business will recover to some extent in the very near future.

Carl Icahn

In a bankruptcy, Bloomberg notes, equity holders’ claims would be behind those of creditors, which is not an incentive for Icahn to put in more money at the moment.

Used car prices have fallen sharply due to Covid-19

A Hertz bankruptcy could flood the used car market with several hundred thousand cars, whose value is likely to take a substantial hit at a time when used car lots are already quite full and demand is low.

Companies now deliver used cars to your home for test drives

Bloomberg notes that used car prices dropped 11.4% from March to April, while sales were merely a quarter of pre-outbreak levels.

Meanwhile Hertz has started discounting its cars on its used car lots and Hertz Car Sales. In fact, you can pick up a car, and they will deliver it to your house for a test drive. We have seen discounts as high as 25% on some models.  The company carries brands like Ford, Chevrolet, Toyota and Nissan, to some luxury brands like Audi, Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz.

Cars are discounted by Hertz

One more footnote to this story: auto dealerships usually set their used car prices as a function of new car prices. With most of the domestic auto plants closed, price of new cars (2021 model year) will not be known anytime soon.

Companies in the space include: Copart (CPRT), CarMax (KMX), Carvana (CVNA), CarGurus (CARG), Penske (PAG). AutoNation (AN). 

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Tesla shares lower as sales slowdown

Tesla registrations nearly halved in California in Q4

Tesla’s (TSLA) overall vehicle registrations nearly halved in California during the fourth quarter, according to a Dominion Cross-Sell report, which collates data from state motor vehicle records, Reuters reports.

https://stockwinners.com/blog/
Tesla shares lower as sales slow down, Stockwinners

The report showed registrations in California plunged 46.5% to 13,584 in the quarter ended December 2019, from 25,402 in the same period a year earlier.

Model 3 registrations, which accounted for about three-fourth of the total, halved to 10,694.

Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 named Car of the Year, Stockwinners

The massive drop comes as tax credit for Tesla buyers ended in 2019. It had fallen to $3,750 at the start of the year and had halved to $1,875 in July.

An existing $7,500 U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles (EVs), which allows taxpayers to deduct a part of the cost of buying an electric car, phases out over 15 months once an automaker hits 200,000 cumulative EV sales, which Tesla hit in July 2018.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas downgraded Tesla to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $360, up from $250.

The analyst sees an unfavorable risk/reward at current valuation levels following the stock’s recent rally.

Tesla gets a boost from Bud. See Stockwinners.com
Tesla is expected to rollout is big rig soon, Stockwinners

Further, he believes risks to Tesla’s long-term Chinese business may not be fully appreciated by the market.

Four factors have driven Tesla’s share price up 105% over the last four months, namely stronger than expected global demand for its vehicles, China announcements that show the company’s expansion into the world’s largest electric vehicle market, supportive incentive developments and positive sentiment around its product expansion, Jonas tells investors in a research note.

The analyst, while admitting near-term momentum and sentiment around the stock is very strong, questions the “sustainability of the momentum.” Jonas increased his expectations for Tesla’s core auto business while decreasing his expectations for the mobility business, resulting in the price target raise to $360.

TSLA is down 2.75% to $504.

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Hexcel and Woodward merge to form Woodward Hexcel

Hexcel, Woodward announce merger of equals

Woodward (WWD) and Hexcel (HXL) announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger of equals “to create a premier integrated systems provider serving the aerospace and industrial sectors,” the companies said.

Woodward and Hexcel agree to merge, Stockwinners

Under the terms of the agreement approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies, Hexcel shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.625 shares of Woodward common stock for each share of Hexcel common stock, and Woodward shareholders will continue to own the same number of shares of common stock in the combined company as they do immediately prior to the closing.

Hexcel and Woodward to merge, Stockwinners

The exchange ratio is consistent with the 30-day average share prices of both companies.

Upon completion of the merger, existing Woodward shareholders will own approximately 55% and existing Hexcel shareholders will own approximately 45% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis.

In connection with the transaction, Woodward is increasing its quarterly cash dividend to 28c a share.

The merger is expected to be tax free for U.S. federal income tax purposes.

The combined company will be named Woodward Hexcel.

For each company’s respective fiscal year 2019 on a pro forma basis, the combined company is expected to generate net revenues of approximately $5.3B and EBITDA of $1.1B, or a 21% EBITDA margin.

The transaction is subject to the approval of the shareholders of both Woodward and Hexcel, as well as other customary closing conditions, including required regulatory approvals.

The parties expect the merger to close in the third calendar quarter of 2020, subject to satisfaction of these conditions.

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PolyOne buys Claiant’s color business for $1.45B

PolyOne acquires Clariant color and additive masterbatch business for $1.45B

PolyOne (POL) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Switzerland’s Clariant to purchase its global color and additive masterbatch business.

In addition, PolyOne has entered into an agreement with Clariant Chemicals India Ltd. to purchase its color and additive masterbatch business.

The combined net purchase price is $1.45B, representing an 11.1x multiple of last twelve months adjusted EBITDA, or 7.6x including anticipated synergies.

Polyone buys paint business of Clariant, Stockwinners

“This will be a truly transformational acquisition for both PolyOne and Clariant customers and employees around the world. Together, we will benefit from the combined ingenuity, passion and expertise of two global leaders in color design, additive technologies and sustainable solutions,” said Robert M. Patterson, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, PolyOne Corporation.

Clariant’s color and additive masterbatch business, which had sales of $1.15 billion for the last twelve months, includes specialty technologies and solutions for high-growth global end markets, such as consumer, packaging, and healthcare.

Polyone buys Clariant’s color biz for $1.45B, Stockwinners

The Clariant business includes 46 manufacturing operations and technology centers in 29 countries and approximately 3,600 employees, who will join PolyOne’s Color, Additives and Inks segment.

PolyOne Corporation provides specialized polymer materials, services, and solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, South America, and Asia. It operates in four segments: Color, Additives and Inks; Specialty Engineered Materials; Performance Products and Solutions; and Distribution. 

POL is up 0.89 to $36.86.

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Truck sales decline in November

Classes 5-8 truck orders soften in November amid trade and tariff worries

Truck sales downturn could be canary in the coal mine

There are eight classes of commercial motor vehicles in the United States, and they’re divided into three, more general categories: light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty. Commercial motor vehicles or trucks that operate on U.S. highways can be classified based on their gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR).

ACT Research said in an earlier report:

“Preliminary November data show that Classes 5-8 net order volumes were uniformly soft. Combined NA Classes 5-8 intake fell 15% m/m and 38% y/y in November on a nominal basis. Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data show the industry booked 17,500 units in November, down 20% from October, while Classes 5-7 orders fell 8% m/m, to 15,300 units.

Complete industry data for November, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-December.

Various Classes of Vehicles, Stockwinners

ACT’s State of the Industry:

Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales.

Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs.

This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package.

A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.

“Preliminary November data show that Class 8 net orders failed to sustain October’s encouraging start to the order season,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

He continued, “The freight market downturn worsened in the past month and uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers’ psyches. With rising pressure on carrier profits from the combined impact of lower rates and the recent, rather sudden jump in insurance premia, recent events have not developed in the industry’s favor.” Denoyer concluded,

“While private fleets continue to add capacity on the retail end, the market is increasingly heeding for-hire price signals and the stage is being set to right-size the fleet, bringing it closer to equilibrium with the work to be done.”

Historically, Dow Jones Transports have sold off prior to the rest of the market. The .djt has turned bearish as is shown above.

Publicly traded companies in the space include ArcBest (ARCB), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Knight-Swift (KNX), Old Dominion (ODFL), Swift Transportation (SWFT), Werner (WERN), Paccar (PCAR), Navistar (NAV)and Cummins (CMI).

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Aptiv, Hyundai Motor to form autonomous driving joint venture

Aptiv, Hyundai Motor to form autonomous driving JV

Aptiv (APTV) and Hyundai Motor Group (HYMTF) announced that they will be forming an autonomous driving joint venture.

This partnership brings together one of the industry’s most innovative vehicle technology providers and one of the world’s largest vehicle manufacturers.

Aptiva scores a victory by forming JV with Hyundai, Stockwinners

The joint venture will advance the design, development and commercialization of SAE Level 4 and 5 autonomous technologies, furthering the partners’ leadership position in the global autonomous driving ecosystem.

The joint venture will begin testing fully driverless systems in 2020 and have a production-ready autonomous driving platform available for robotaxi providers, fleet operators, and automotive manufacturers in 2022.

As part of the agreement, Hyundai Motor Group and Aptiv will each have a 50 percent ownership stake in the joint venture, valued at a total of $4B.

Hyundai forms autonomous driving joint venture, Stockwinners

Aptiv will contribute its autonomous driving technology, intellectual property, and approximately 700 employees focused on the development of scalable autonomous driving solutions.

Hyundai Motor Group affiliates – Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors and Hyundai Mobis – will collectively contribute $1.6B in cash at closing and $0.4B in vehicle engineering services, R&D resources, and access to intellectual property.

The partnership reinforces the companies’ shared vision of making mobility more safe, green, connected, and accessible by advancing the development and commercialization of the highest-performing and safest autonomous vehicles.

Shares of Aptiva are up 1.6% to $88.50.

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Tesla crashes after latest report

Model Y to become available in the U.S. in Fall 2020

Model 3 to become available in China in Fall 2020

Tesla (TSLA) shares are sharply lower in Thursday’s trading after the electric car maker posted a loss that surprised investors.

Tesla (TSLA) reported a 2nd Quarter June 2019 loss of $1.12 per share on revenue of $6.3 billion. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion. Revenue grew 58.7% on a year-over-year basis.

https://stockwinners.com/blog/
Tesla shares tumble following its results, Stockwinners

The company said in it continues to expect positive GAAP earnings in the third quarter. The current consensus estimate is earnings of $0.27 per share for the quarter ending September 30, 2019. Tesla reported 95,356 vehicle deliveries in Q2 and production of 87,048 vehicles in Q2.

Tesla CEO says Model Y production ramp will be ‘significantly faster’ – Musk cites parts compatibility of the company’s existing models. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in the company’s Q2 update letter, “This quarter, we are simplifying our approach to guidance. We are most focused on expanding our manufacturing footprint in new regions, launching new products and continuing to improve the customer experience, while generating and using cash sustainably. Local production and improved utilization of existing factories is essential to be cost competitive in each region.

Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 to become available in China, Stockwinners

We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020. We are also accelerating our European Gigafactory efforts and are hoping to finalize a location choice in the coming quarters. We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year. Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding. We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus. Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5B-$2.0B, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.”

TSLA shares are down $36.90 to $228.50

Model Y to become available Fall 2020, Stockwinners

ANALYSTS’ COMMENTS

Barclays

Neither revenues nor earnings were “anywhere near a record” in Tesla’s Q2 results, which “calls into question the growth story,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Tesla’s loss in Q2 “should mark the top of the current ‘swing trade.'”

The results should temper bullish expectations for profit leverage, says Johnson, who reiterates an Underweight rating on the shares with a $150 price target.

Canaccord

Canaccord analyst Jed Dorsheimer lowered his price target on Tesla to $350 from $394 following Q2 results that were roughly inline with his expectations.

The analyst said its free cash flow suggests the company has a bit more time to grow into its profitability expectations. Dorsheimer maintained his Buy rating on Tesla shares.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy notes that Tesla posted a Q2 EPS miss. Broadly, while Tesla has maintained its narrative, the analyst expects the stock to be under pressure near-term, as expectations had risen post the Q2 deliveries release earlier this month. Levy reiterates an Underperform rating and $189 price target on the shares as the Q2 results reminded him of the challenges ahead for Tesla in gross margin, especially as it relates to Models S/X. While Tesla has maintained its delivery guidance, he believes the company will be challenged to meet it given challenges to S/X volumes and the phase-out of the U.S. EV tax credit.

Model S interior, Stockwinners

Jefferies

Tesla last night reported a “challenging set of numbers,” although its pre-restructuring loss was in line with consensus estimates and its free cash flow better with a $600M operating inflow, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois tells investors in a research note titled “Q2 Challenging but Still Encouraging.”

Tesla’s vehicle gross margin improved but remains low for sustainable profitability at this stage, adds the analyst. Further, he believes e. JB Straubel moving to an advisory position adds to fears of “executive fatigue.” Houchois keeps a Buy rating on Tesla with a $300 price target.

JMP Securities

JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha lowered his price target on Tesla to $337 after its Q2 results, saying the company’s revenue was “solid” but gross margins disappointed even in the absence of reduced regulatory credits.

The analyst adds that the output of 87K cars was below capacity, which is a positive because of “low utilization” of its Model S and X, but notes that the “fixed-cost asset under-absorption” suggests the company is struggling with reducing Model 3 costs as expected.

Morgan Stanley

Following Tesla’s analyst call, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas shares his key thoughts, including his view that JB Straubel giving up the Chief Technical Officer role “may be the biggest news of the quarter.” It is unclear what motivated the 15-year veteran of the company to give up direct operational responsibility, but, “unfortunately, nobody asked this on the call,” Jonas said.

Elon Musk said that Q4 will be “very strong, but said the first and second quarters of 2020 will be “tough,” noted Jonas, who thinks investors should be ready for more quarter-to-quarter sales volatility heading into 2020. He keeps an Equal Weight rating and $230 price target on Tesla shares.

Model X sales slow down, Stockwinners

Needham

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill kept his Underperform rating on Tesla after its “significant” loss reported in Q2 along with a “slight” increase in its margins hurt by average selling price reductions across all of its vehicle models. The analyst notes that while the company affirmed its FY19 delivery target and forecast profitability in Q4, he is cautious on that outlook as it would require a “significant snapback” in the second half of the year. Gill sees Tesla remaining challenged by “structurally low margins” and growing competition.

Nomura Instinet

Nomura Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle lowered his price target for Tesla to $270 from $300 following last night’s “mixed” Q2 results. Deliveries exceeded initial expectations meaningfully, but profitability metrics “underwhelmed,” Eberle tells investors in a post-earnings research titled “Spinning Its Wheels.”

The analyst doubts the quarter “will inspire enough confidence to get the stock working.” As such, he keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla.

Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch lowered his price target for Tesla to $356 from $437, noting that while automotive revenue and full company free cash flow beat expectations, full company revenue, gross margin and EPS results were below, driven partially by Model S/X ASP declines.

The analyst believes this dynamic will fuel bearish investors focused on limited demand for Tesla products, but believes bulls will focus on strong volumes, stable Model 3 ASP and better than expected cash flow as the company appears to be getting increasingly efficient with its spending. Rusch has an Outperform rating on the shares.

Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter reiterates an Overweight rating on Tesla following last night’s Q2 results while lowering his price target for the shares to $386 from $396.

Forward looking metrics related to revenue, such as orders and deliveries, are “all trending in the right direction – and that’s probably the most important thing,”

Potter tells investors in a research note. The post-market selloff was driven initially by mix-related concerns, and the resulting pressure on gross margin, but then Tesla’s Chief Technology Officer subsequently resigned on the earnings call, and the selling pressure intensified, explains Potter. He believes today’s pullback provides an entry point into Tesla shares.

Roth Capital

Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin lowered his price target for Tesla to $224 form $238 after the company posted weak Q2 EPS, with automotive margins marking the lowest levels since Q1 of 2018. The analyst reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives lowered his price target for Tesla to $220 from $230 to reflect a softer margin profile and pushed out profitability looking ahead. The analyst notes that the company delivered some bad news that will weigh on shares on Thursday as the company significantly missed the Street on the bottom line with “disappointing” gross margins that fundamentally call into question its ability to show sustainable profitability on the heels of lower margin Model 3 units going forward. Ives reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

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Milacron sold for $2 billion

Hillenbrand to acquire Milacron in cash, stock deal valued around $2B

Milacron sold for $2 billion, Stockwinners

Hillenbrand (HI) and Milacron (MCRN) announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Hillenbrand will acquire Milacron in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $2B, including net debt of approximately $686M as of March 31.

Under the terms of the agreement, which has been unanimously approved by the boards of both companies, Milacron stockholders will receive $11.80 in cash and a fixed exchange ratio of 0.1612 shares of Hillenbrand common stock for each share of Milacron common stock they own.

Based on Hillenbrand’s closing stock price on July 11, the last trading day prior to the announcement, the implied cash and stock consideration to be received by Milacron stockholders is $18.07 per share, representing a premium of approximately 34% to Milacron’s closing stock price on July 11, and a premium of approximately 38% to Milacron’s 30-day volume-weighted average price as of the close on July 11.

Hillenbrand pays $2 billion to buy one of its suppliers, Stockwinners

Upon closing, Hillenbrand shareholders will own approximately 84% of the combined company, and Milacron stockholders will own approximately 16%.

Milacron will benefit from the Hillenbrand Operating Model, or HOM, and Hillenbrand expects to leverage Milacron’s global shared services center to drive operational efficiency.

The transaction is expected to generate annualized, run-rate cost synergies of approximately $50M within three years following close, primarily through reducing public company costs, realizing operating efficiencies, and capturing direct and indirect spend opportunities.

The transaction is also expected to generate revenue synergies, driven by opportunities to cross-sell extruder and material handling equipment, and to leverage the combined service footprint to further penetrate the product aftermarket.

These efficiencies will be driven across the combined organization through utilizing the HOM, while maintaining a commitment to serving customers with excellence and innovation.

The transaction, which is expected to close in Q1 of 2020, is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including the approval of stockholders of Milacron.

About the Companies

Hillenbrand, Inc. operates as a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Process Equipment Group and Batesville. The Process Equipment Group segment designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and services process and material handling equipment and systems for various industries, including plastics, food and pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fertilizers, minerals and mining, energy, wastewater treatment, forest products, and other general industrials.

Milacron Holdings Corp. manufactures, distributes, and services engineered and customized systems within the plastic technology and processing industry in the United States and internationally. 

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Ford launches new business model in Europe

Ford to cut 12,000 jobs in Europe by end of 2020

Ford to realign its European operations, Stockwinners

Ford (F) said in a statement that it is launching a new business model and fresh vehicle line-up as part of the most comprehensive redesign in the history of its business in Europe.

The company also is on track to significantly improve its financial results in Europe this year, paving the way to sustainable profitability and its longer-term goal of delivering a 6% EBIT margin.

The new European operating model and resulting organization are effective July 1.

Three new business groups – Commercial Vehicles, Passenger Vehicles and Imports – are being established to facilitate fast decision-making centered on customer needs, Ford said.

Ford Kuga will now be manufactured in China instead of Europe, Stockwinners

Ford is freshening and expanding its vehicle line-up in Europe, introducing at least three new nameplates in the next five years as it continues to grow its utility vehicle portfolio, including the all-new Mustang-inspired fully electric performance utility.

The new nameplates are in addition to all-new Kuga, Puma and Explorer Plug-In Hybrid coming by early 2020.

Manufacturing efficiency is being improved through the previously announced proposed or confirmed closure or sale of six assembly and component manufacturing plants by the end of next year: Proposed closure of Bridgend Engine Plant in South Wales; Closure of Ford Aquitaine Industries Transmission Plant in France; Closure of Naberezhnye Chelny Assembly, St. Petersburg Assembly and Elabuga Engine Plant in Russia; Sale of the Kechnec Transmission Plant in Slovakia to Magna.

This Ford Mustang designed for the European market, Stockwinners

As a result, Ford’s manufacturing footprint in Europe will be reduced to a proposed 18 facilities by the end of 2020, from 24 at the beginning of 2019.

In the U.K., the Ford of Britain and Ford Credit Europe headquarters in Warley also will close later this year and operations consolidated in Dunton.

In addition, Ford is implementing shift reductions at its assembly plants in Saarlouis, Germany, and Valencia, Spain, as well as a more streamlined management structure and marketing and sales operations.

In total, approximately 12,000 jobs will be impacted at Ford’s wholly owned facilities and consolidated joint ventures in Europe by the end of 2020, primarily through voluntary separation programs.

Around 2,000 of those are salaried positions, which are included among the 7,000 salaried positions Ford is reducing globally.

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Fiat Chrysler propose to merge with Renault

Fiat Chrysler proposes to 50/50 merger agreement with Renault

Chinese automakers weigh bids for FCA. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar for details
Fiat Chrysler propose to merge with Renault, Stockwinners

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (FCAU) announced that it has delivered a non-binding letter to the board of Renault (RNLSY) proposing a combination of their respective businesses as a 50/50 merger.

The FCA proposal follows initial operational discussions between the two companies to identify products and geographies where they could collaborate.

Fiat Chrysler propose to merge with Renault, Stockwinners

Fiat said, “These discussions made clear that broader collaboration through a combination would substantially improve capital efficiency and the speed of product development. The case for combination is also strengthened by the need to take bold decisions to capture at scale the opportunities created by the transformation of the auto industry in areas like connectivity, electrification and autonomous driving…The combined business would sell approximately 8.7 million vehicles annually, would be a world leader in EV technologies, premium brands, SUVs, pickup trucks and light commercial vehicles and would have a broader and more balanced global presence than either company on a standalone basis.”

Under the terms of the proposal, shareholders in each company would receive an equivalent equity stake in the combined company.

The combination would be carried out as a merger transaction under a Dutch parent company.

The board of the combined entity would initially be composed of 11 members, with the majority being independent and with equal representation of four members each for both FCA and Groupe Renault, as well as one nominee from Nissan.

Further, there would be no carryover of existing double voting rights.

However, all shareholders would have the opportunity to earn loyalty voting rights from the completion of the transaction under a loyalty voting program.

The parent company would be listed on the Borsa Italiana, Euronext and the New York Stock Exchange. Before the transaction is closed, to mitigate the disparity in equity market values, Fiat said its shareholders would also receive a dividend of EUR $2.5B.

In addition, prior to closing, there would be a distribution of Comau’s shares to Fiat’s shareholders or an incremental EUR $250M dividend if the Comau spin-off does not occur.

The combination is expected to deliver in excess of EUR $5B of annual run rate synergies, incremental to existing Alliance synergies.

Renault’s Response

Renault announced that its board met today to examine the proposal received from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) regarding a potential 50/50 merger between Renault S.A. and Fiat.

Renault said, “After careful review of the terms of FCA’s friendly proposal, the Board of Directors decided to study with interest the opportunity of such a business combination, comforting Groupe Renault’s manufacturing footprint and creating additional value for the Alliance.

A further communication will be issued in due course to inform the market of the results of these discussions, in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.”

FCAU closed at $12.85. RNLSY closed at $11.18.

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