Government forecasts steady energy prices in 2020 and 21

EIA says U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3M b/d in 2020

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices will average $65 per barrel in 2020 and $68/b in 2021, compared with an average of $64/b in 2019.

Domestic productions to rise in 2020, Stockwinners

EIA expects West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude oil prices will average about $5.50/b lower than Brent prices through 2020 and 2021, compared with an average WTI discount of about $7.35/b in 2019.

Global liquid fuels inventories were mostly unchanged in 2019, and EIA expects they will grow by 0.3 million b/d in 2020 and then decline by 0.2 million b/d in 2021.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Production in all regions to rise in 2020, Stockwinners

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.2 million b/d in 2019, up 1.3 million b/d from 2018.

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million b/d in 2020 and 13.7 million b/d in 2021.

  • On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) enacted Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Convention), which lowers the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used in ocean-going vessels from 3.5% of weight to 0.5%.
  • EIA expects this regulation will encourage global refiners to increase refinery runs and maximize upgrading of high-sulfur heavy fuel oil into low-sulfur distillate fuel to create compliant bunker fuels.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. refinery runs will rise by 3% from 2019 to a record level of 17.5 million b/d in 2020, resulting in refinery utilization rates that average 93% in 2020.
  • EIA expects one of the most significant effects of the regulation will be on diesel wholesale margins, which will rise from an average of 43 cents per gallon (gal) in 2019 to a forecast peak of 53 cents/gal in March 2020 and an annual average of 50 cents/gal in 2020. EIA expects diesel margins to decline to 49 cents/gal in 2021.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.60/gal in 2019, and EIA forecasts that they will average $2.63/gal in both 2020 and 2021.
Oil Rigs, See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read the latest on oil and rig count
Production to continue at record high, Stockwinners

Most of the production growth in the forecast occurs in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

Publicly traded companies in the space include BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and Total (TOT). 

Ocean Rig sold for $2.7B, Stockwinners
Consolidations should continue in the industry, Stockwinners


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Rig counts decline

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 15 to 781 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 15 rigs from last week to 781, with oil rigs down 11 to 659, gas rigs down 4 to 119, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

 The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 21, Stockwinners
The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 21, Stockwinners

The U.S. Rig Count is down 294 rigs from last year’s count of 1,075, with oil rigs down 214, gas rigs down 83, and miscellaneous rigs up 3 to 3.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 21 unchanged year-over-year.

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Rig Counts Decline- See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more

The Canada Rig Count is up 118 rigs from last week to 203, with oil rigs up 93 to 120 and gas rigs up 25 to 83.

The Canada Rig Count is up 19 rigs from last year’s count of 184, with oil rigs up 17 and gas rigs up 2.

Crude oil is down 30 cents to $59.25 per barrel. Brent is down 15 cents to $65.22.

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Tallgrass Energy sold for $3 billion

Blackstone affiliates to buy Tallgrass Class A shares for $22.45 per share

Tallgrass Energy (TGE) announced earlier that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which affiliates of Blackstone Infrastructure (BX) together with affiliates of Enagas, GIC, NPS and USS. will acquire all of the publicly-held outstanding Class A Shares of TGE for $22.45 in cash per Class A share.

The transaction is expected to close in Q2 of 2020, subject to the satisfaction of customary conditions, including approval of the merger by holders of a majority of the outstanding Class A and Class B Shares of TGE, voting together as a single class, inclusive of the approximately 44% of the total Class A and Class B shares held by the sponsors.

Tallgrass Energy sold for $3B, Stockwinners

Upon closing of the transaction, the Class A Shares will cease to be publicly traded. Pursuant to the merger agreement, TGE has agreed not to pay distributions during the pendency of the transactions contemplated by the merger agreement.

Tallgrass Energy, LP provides crude oil transportation services to customers in Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, and the surrounding regions of the United States. The company operates through three segments: Natural Gas Transportation; Crude Oil Transportation; and Gathering, Processing & Terminalling. 

The conflicts committee of the board of directors of Tallgrass Energy GP, TGE’s general partner, after consultation with its independent legal and financial advisors, unanimously approved the transaction and determined it to be in the best interests of TGE and its public shareholders.

Stocks to Watch, Stocks to Trade, Stockwinners
Blackstone buys Tallgrass Energy for $3B, Stockwinners

The sponsors expect to fund the purchase of the Class A Shares with approximately $3B of equity, with the remainder of the funding necessary to consummate the transaction provided by debt.

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Felix Energy sold for $2.5 billion

WPX Energy acquires Felix Energy for $2.5B

WPX Energy (WPX) “is taking another significant step in its commitment to delivering shareholder value” with the $2.5B purchase of Felix Energy, “one of the highest quality Delaware Basin operators.”

Felix has approximately 1,500 gross undeveloped locations in the eastern portion of the basin, with expected production of approximately 60 MBoe/d (70% oil) at the time of anticipated closing. WPX plans to implement a dividend post-closing, targeting approximately $0.10 per share on an annualized basis at initiation.

WPX buys Felix Energy for $2.5B, Stockwinners

WPX Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploitation and development of unconventional properties in the United States. The company operates 657 wells and owns interests in 808 wells covering an area of approximately 130,000 net acres located in Delaware Basin, Texas and New Mexico; and operates 323 wells and owns interests in 87 wells that covers an area of approximately 85,087 net acres situated in the Williston Basin, North Dakota. 

Felix Energy sold for $2.5B, Stockwinners

The acquisition and dividend program follow other steps WPX took in 2019 to enhance its value proposition, including reducing net debt, executing attractive midstream monetizations, launching a share buyback program and generating free cash flow.

The purchase price consists of $900M cash, subject to closing adjustments, and $1.6B in WPX stock issued to the seller.

WPX plans to fund the cash portion through issuance of $900M of senior notes on an opportunistic basis.

WPX also has obtained committed financing from Barclays in connection with the transaction and has full access to a $1.5B revolving credit facility.

The stock consideration comprises approximately 153M WPX shares, which is based on the 10-day volume-weighted average price as of Dec. 13.

The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and approval by WPX shareholders. The parties anticipate closing the transaction early in the second quarter of 2020.

WPX’s board unanimously approved the transaction.

The acquisition is consistent with all of the tenets in WPX’s five-year vision for shareholders that the company introduced in November during its third-quarter report.

On a pro forma basis, WPX expects to generate significant free cash flow in 2020 at $50 oil.

Following the acquisition, cash flow per share, EPS, free cash flow per share, return on capital employed, and cash margins are all expected to increase.

WPX also expects to continue its opportunistic share buybacks, to implement the previously mentioned dividend program, and to reduce its leverage to 1.0x by year-end 2021.

WPX based all of its transaction economics on $50 oil, with no assumptions for improvements in development costs or operating efficiencies. However, WPX believes significant upside exists by capturing synergies associated with scale.

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Toronto’s WSP Global buys Ecology & Environment

Ecology & Environment to be acquired by WSP Global for $65.1M

Ecology and Environment announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement with WSP Global, pursuant to which WSP will acquire E & E for cash.

EEI sold for $65.1M, Stockwinners

E & E has approximately 775 employees, predominantly in offices across the United States, with an additional presence in Latin America. With its US operations representing approximately 80% of its 2018 $US 73.5 million in net revenues, E & E’s portfolio includes work on the New York State Offshore Wind Master Plan, Climate Change Adaptation Planning in San Mateo County, California, and work on large federal programs with agencies including the US Environmental Protection Agency, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and the US Navy.

Under the terms of the agreement, E & E’s shareholders will receive $15.00 in cash, and a special dividend of up to 50c, for each share of Class A and Class B common stock they own. The special dividend is conditioned on and will be paid following the completion of the transaction and is subject to downward adjustment in certain circumstances.

WSP buys EEI for $65.1 M.

Under the terms of the Agreement, the merger consideration is approximately $US65.1 million in the aggregate, including a special dividend of approximately $US 2.2 million.

The merger agreement and the transaction have been unanimously approved by E & E’s Board of Directors.

In addition, E & E’s founders Frank Silvestro, Ronald Frank and Gerald Strobel, a trust affiliated with E & E’s late founder Gerhard Neumaier, each member of E & E’s Board of Directors and affiliates of Mill Road Capital have all signed voting agreements in support of the transaction.

The merger consideration, together with the special dividend of up to 50c, represents a premium of approximately 52.9% over E & E’s closing share price of $10.14 on August 27, 2019.

The merger agreement provides for a “go-shop” period of 30 days, during which E & E – with the assistance of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated – will contact and potentially enter into negotiations with, and provide due diligence access to, third parties that offer potentially superior proposals to the proposed transaction with WSP.

E & E will have the right to terminate the merger agreement to enter into a superior proposal subject to the conditions and procedures specified in the merger agreement.

There can be no assurance this process will result in a superior proposal. E & E does not intend to disclose developments about this process unless and until the Board has made a decision with respect to any potential superior proposal.

The closing of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the approval of E & E’s shareholders and applicable regulatory approvals.

The parties are targeting a closing in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2019, subject to receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.

Alexandre L’Heureux, President and Chief Executive Officer of WSP, said, “We are pleased by the opportunity to have E & E join WSP, as we share a similar culture and strategy, centered around employees and clients. This Acquisition, which is in line with our 2019-2021 Global Strategic Plan, will enable us to increase both our Strategic Advisory Services offering and our presence in the United States, most particularly the US governmental sector. E & E, which is recognized for its expertise in environment, has built experience in sectors and services that WSP had targeted for growth, including environmental impact assessment, emergency planning and management, as well as site restoration.”

EEI is up $5.05 to $15.05.

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Feds Cut Rates on All Instruments!

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds target rate by 25 basis points

The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.

Powell, FOMC Chair, Stockwinners
Fed Chief Powell. Stockwinners.com

Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft.

On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.

In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.

As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Long Term Rates

The Federal Reserve also said in today’s statement, “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.

This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.”

Bernanke came up with “Quantitative Easing” in 2008, Stockwinners

If you have no idea what the above paragraph means, this may help. Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke, then the Fed Chair, came up with a clever idea! Since the rates at the time where near zero. He needed a way to lower the rates, he started buying long term government bonds. The added demand for bonds caused bond prices to rise thus pushing the rates lower. In the past few quarters, the Feds have been selling these bonds, pushing prices lower, thus higher long term rates. Today’s announcement basically says Feds are ending the bond sales two months earlier, long term rates (mortgage prices) will now go lower.

Powell Comments

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the easing was to ensure against downside risks, as he begins his press conference.

He acknowledged the shift in the policy stance since December’s pivot. Fed has seen both positive and negative developments since the June meeting, including a stronger job market, but weaker manufacturing and disappointing foreign growth, while contacts continue to cite ongoing trade uncertainties are giving companies pause.

The Committee has gradually lowered the assessments of growth and that led to the easing today. On whether a 25 bp cut will prop up inflation, he noted one has to look at the Committee’s actions over the year as it’s moved to a more accommodative stance.

The Committee is thinking of today’s action as a mid-cycle adjustment to policy, designed to provide support for the economy, ensure against downside risks, and support inflation. Chair Powell continued to appeal to downside risks and below target inflation as the main threats to the favorable outlook.

He added, the Fed will monitor the evolution of trade uncertainty, which do seem to be having significant effect on the economy. He thinks trade is a new factor that the FOMC will have to assess “in a new way.”

The chair again said it’s not appropriate to just look at the quarter point easing, but rather the evolution of the Fed’s stance from tightening to easing, with the economy picking up since the end of 2018, which suggests monetary policy is working (though he declined to take full credit for the economy’s gains).

10-year yields fall, Stockwinners
Ten year yields approach 2.00 percent, Stockwinners

Market Action

The Fed repeated it will “monitor” incoming information and will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” not really suggesting the path ahead. The long end of the Treasury market is leading the way with the benchmark 10-year 4.4 bps lower to test 2.00, versus 2.023% just ahead of the announcement. The 2-year is down 1.4 bps to 1.83% versus 1.81% earlier. Hence, the curve has flattened to 17 bps from around 20 bps previously.

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Carrizo Oil & Gas sold for $3.2 billion

Callon Petroleum to acquire Carrizo Oil & Gas in all-stock deal valued at $3.2B

Carrizo sold for $3.2 billion, Stockwinners

Callon Petroleum (CPE) and Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) announced that their Boards of Directors have unanimously approved a definitive agreement under which Callon will acquire Carrizo in an all-stock transaction valued at $3.2B.

This highly complementary combination will create a leading oil and gas company with scaled development operations across a portfolio of core oil-weighted assets in both the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale.

Callon Petroleum buys Carrizo for $3.2B, Stockwinners

Under the terms of the agreement, Carrizo shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 2.05 Callon shares for each share of Carrizo common stock they own.

This represents $13.12 per Carrizo share based on Callon’s closing common stock price on July 12 and a premium of 18% to Carrizo’s trailing 60-day volume weighted average price.

Following the close of the transaction, Callon shareholders will own approximately 54% of the combined company, and Carrizo shareholders will own approximately 46%, on a fully diluted basis.

The all-stock transaction is intended to be tax-free to Carrizo shareholders.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors at both Callon and Carrizo.

In addition, each of the Carrizo directors has committed to vote his or her shares in favor of the transaction.

Upon closing, the Board of Directors of the combined company will consist of 11 members, including Callon’s eight current Board members and three to be appointed from the Board of Carrizo.

The combined company will be led by Callon’s executive management team and will remain headquartered in Houston, Texas.

The transaction, which is expected to close during the fourth quarter, is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including the approval of shareholders of both companies.

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Rig Counts Declined Last Week!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 4 to 983 rigs

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Rig Counts Declined in the U.S. and Canada, Stockwinners

Baker Hughes (BHGE) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 4 rigs from last week to 983, with oil rigs down 5 to 797, gas rigs up 1 to 186, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

The U.S. Rig Count is down 76 rigs from last year’s count of 1,059, with oil rigs down 62, gas rigs down 12, and miscellaneous rigs down 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 22 and up 3 rigs year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is up 15 rigs from last week to 78, with oil rigs up 16 to 38 and gas rigs down 1 to 40.

The Canada Rig Count is down 3 rigs from last year’s count of 81, with oil rigs up 3 and gas rigs down 6.

The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.

Crude oil is up 40 cents to $58.30 per barrel. Brent crude is up 57 cents to $68.33 per barrel.

Note that crude oil is rebounding from its 100-day moving average. The Commodity topped around $66 per barrel in the Spring.

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