Finisar sold for $3.2 billion

II-VI to acquire Finisar for $26 per share in cash/stock deal

Finisar sold for $3.2 billion, Stockwinners
Finisar sold for $3.2 billion, Stockwinners

II-VI (IIVI) and Finisar (FNSR) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which II-VI will acquire Finisar in a cash and stock transaction with an equity value of approximately $3.2B.

Under the terms of the merger agreement, which has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies, Finisar’s stockholders will receive, on a pro-rated basis, $15.60 per share in cash and 0.2218x shares of II-VI common stock, valued at $10.40 per share based on the closing price of II-VI’s common stock of $46.88 on November 8, 2018.

The transaction values Finisar at $26.00 per share, or approximately $3.2B in equity value and represents a premium of 37.7% to Finisar’s closing price on November 8, 2018. Finisar shareholders would own approximately 31% of the combined company.

The combination of II-VI and Finisar would unite two innovative, industry leaders with complementary capabilities and cultures to form a formidable industry leading photonics and compound semiconductor company capable of serving the broad set of fast growing markets of communications, consumer electronics, military, industrial processing lasers, automotive semiconductor equipment and life sciences.

Together, II-VI and Finisar will employ over 24,000 associates in 70 locations worldwide upon closing of the transaction. On a pro forma basis, the combined company had approximately $2.5B of annual revenue.

The combined broad base of talent, technology and manufacturing is expected to enhance the ability to better address near-to medium-term opportunities and accelerate revenue growth.

The combined company expects to realize $150M of run-rate cost synergies within 36 months of closing. Synergies are expected to be achieved from procurement savings, internal supply of materials and components, efficient research and development, consolidation of overlapping costs and sales and marketing efficiencies.

The transaction is expected to drive accretion in Non-GAAP earnings per share for the first full year post close of approximately 10% and more than double that thereafter.

II-VI intends to fund the cash consideration with a combination of cash on hand from the combined companies’ balance sheets and $2 billion in funded debt financing.

The transaction is expected to close in the middle of calendar year 2019, subject to approval by each company’s shareholders, antitrust regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.Upon closing of the transaction, Dr. Mattera will continue to serve as President and CEO of the combined company.

In addition, in connection with the closing of the transaction, three Finisar board members will be appointed to the II-VI board, which will be expanded to 11 directors.


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Datawatch sold for $176 million

Altair to acquire Datawatch for $13.10 per share

Datawatch sold for $176 million, Stockwinners
Datawatch sold for $176 million, Stockwinners

Altair (ALTR) and Datawatch (DWCH) announced the signing of a definitive merger agreement under which Altair has agreed to acquire Datawatch. Under the terms of the agreement, Altair will pay $13.10 per share in cash, representing a fully diluted equity value of approximately $176M.

The transaction was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies.

Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement, Altair will commence a tender offer within ten business days to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of Datawatch for $13.10 per share in cash.

This represents a 35% percent premium to the closing price of Datawatch’s common stock on November 2.

The tender offer is subject to customary closing conditions, including the tender of at least a majority of the outstanding shares of Datawatch common stock and the expiration or early termination of the applicable waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976.

Following the closing of the tender offer, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Altair will merge with and into Datawatch, with each share of Datawatch common stock that has not been tendered being converted into the right to receive the same $13.10 per share in cash offered in the tender offer.

The transaction is anticipated to close in Q4.

Datawatch Corporation designs, develops, markets, and distributes business computer software products to self-service data preparation and visual data discovery markets in the United States and internationally.

Altair Engineering Inc. provides enterprise-class engineering software worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Software and Client Engineering Services. Its integrated suite of multi-disciplinary computer aided engineering software optimizes design performance across various disciplines, including structures, motion, fluids, thermal management, electromagnetics, system modeling and embedded systems, as well as provides data analytics and true-to-life visualization and rendering.


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Electro Scientific sold for $1 billion

MKS Instruments to acquire Electro Scientific for $30.00 per share

Electro Scientific sold for $1 billion, Stockwinners
Electro Scientific sold for $1 billion, Stockwinners

MKS Instruments (MKSI) and Electro Scientific (ESIO) announced that they have entered into an agreement for MKS to acquire ESI for $30.00 per share.

The all-cash transaction is valued at approximately $1B.

The combined company is expected to have approximately $2.2B in pro forma annual revenue, based on the two companies’ calendar 2017 historical results.

The transaction is expected to be accretive to MKS’ non-GAAP net earnings and free cash flow during the first 12 months post-closing.

The combined company expects to realize $15M in annualized cost synergies within 18 to 36 months.

MKS anticipates the acquisition will further advance the MKS strategy to enhance our Surround the WorkpieceSM offerings by adding systems expertise and deep technical understanding of laser materials processing interactions.

ESI’s knowledge in printed circuit board processing systems and other capabilities will provide MKS the opportunity to accelerate the roadmaps and performance of laser, motion and photonics portfolio.

In addition, ESI brings a new platform of industrial markets enabling MKS to leverage its expertise more broadly. MKS intends to fund the transaction with a combination of available cash on hand and up to $650M in committed term loan debt financing.

On a pro forma basis, as if the transaction closed on June 30, we expect the combined company to have a strong balance sheet with combined pro forma net cash and investments of approximately $400M and total term loan debt outstanding of $1B. This would result in pro forma trailing twelve month leverage, defined as debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 1.3 times and pro forma net leverage of 0.8 times.

Actual leverage ratios will depend upon a number of factors and shall be determined at the time of the closing. The company has also obtained a commitment to upsize its asset based revolving credit facility to $100M.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the MKS and ESI boards of directors and is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals and approval by ESI’s shareholders, and is expected to close in Q1 of 2019.


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Penn Virginia sold for $1.7 billion

Denbury Resources to acquire Penn Virginia in cash, stock deal valued at $1.7B

 

Penn Virginia sold for $1.7 billion, Stockwinners
Penn Virginia sold for $1.7 billion, Stockwinners

Denbury Resources (DNR) and Penn Virginia Corporation (PVAC) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which Denbury will acquire Penn Virginia in a transaction valued at approximately $1.7B, including the assumption of debt.

The consideration to be paid to Penn Virginia shareholders will consist of 12.4 shares of Denbury common stock and $25.86 of cash for each share of Penn Virginia common stock.

Penn Virginia shareholders will be permitted to elect all cash, all stock or a mix of stock and cash, subject to proration, which will result in the aggregate issuance of approximately 191.6M Denbury shares and payment of $400M in cash.

The transaction was unanimously approved by the board of directors of each company, and Penn Virginia shareholders holding 15% of the outstanding shares signed a voting agreement to vote “for” the transaction.

Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement, shareholders of Penn Virginia will receive, subject to proration, a combination of 12.4 shares of Denbury common stock and $25.86 of cash for each share of Penn Virginia common stock, representing consideration to each Penn Virginia shareholder of $79.80 per share based on the closing price of Denbury common stock on October 26, 2018.

Penn Virginia shareholders will have the option to receive all stock or all cash, subject to proration such that the overall mix of consideration does not result in more or less than $400M in cash being paid.

The overall mix of consideration will be 68% Denbury common stock and 32% cash.

The stock portion of the consideration received by Penn Virginia’s shareholders is expected to be tax-free. Upon closing of the transaction, Denbury stockholders will own approximately 71% of the combined company, and Penn Virginia shareholders will own approximately 29%.

The transaction, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019, is subject to the approval of Penn Virginia shareholders and is subject to approval by Denbury’s stockholders of the issuance of common stock and an amendment to Denbury’s charter to increase its authorized shares.

The transaction is also conditioned on clearance under the Hart-Scott Rodino Act and other customary closing conditions.

The merger agreement contains a covenant that upon its closing, Denbury’s board will be expanded from eight directors to ten directors, to include two independent members of Penn Virginia’s board of directors who are mutually agreed upon by Denbury and Penn Virginia.


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Tesla jumps on results, upgrades

Tesla rises as analysts digest first profit in two years

Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics’ Car of the Year

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) are on the rise after the company reported third quarter results, with a net profit of $312M, the electric-vehicle maker’s largest ever.

Tesla also said deliveries of its Model 3 grew to 56,000, adding that it “was the best-selling car in the U.S. in terms of revenue and the 5th best-selling car in terms of volume.”

Following the announcement, Wolfe Research analyst Dan Galves upgraded Tesla to Outperform, while several other firms raised their targets on the stock. Nonetheless, some Wall Street analysts remain bearish on Tesla, telling investors to “not get used to [this quarter’s profitability.]”

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Tesla jumps on results, upgrades – See Stockwinners Market Radar

RESULTS

Last night, Tesla reported third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.90 and revenue of $6.82B, both above consensus of (19c) and $6.3B, respectively.

The company said that, “Model 3 quarterly production and deliveries should continue to increase in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.

Our target of delivering 100,000 Model S and X vehicles this year remains unchanged.

We expect gross margin for Model 3 to remain stable in the fourth quarter as manufacturing efficiencies and fixed cost absorption offset a slightly lower trim mix and the negative impact of tariffs from Chinese sourced components.

https://stockwinners.com/blog/
Stockwinners.com,Tesla jumps on results, upgrades

For all three vehicles, additional tariffs in the fourth quarter on parts sourced from China will impact our gross profit negatively by roughly $50M […] The third quarter of 2018 was a truly historic quarter for Tesla.

Model 3 was the best-selling car in the U.S. in terms of revenue and the 5th best-selling car in terms of volume.

With average weekly Model 3 production through the quarter, excluding planned shutdowns, of roughly 4,300 units per week, we achieved GAAP net income of $312M.”

WOLFE RESEARCH SAYS BUY TESLA

In a post-earnings research note, Wolfe Research’s Galves upgraded Tesla to Outperform from Peer Perform, with a $410 price target.

Saying that “Tesla became a real company,” the analyst argued that third quarter non-GAAP earnings of $2.90 and free cash flow of $881M are proof that Tesla’s earnings power is likely to outperform traditional automakers.

Management’s focus on cost and capital efficiency boosted Galves’ confidence that priorities have changed from unit growth at all cost to profitable growth and self-funding.

Further, the analyst argued that demand and margin outlook appear “very positive” and the fact that 50% of trade-ins on the Model 3 are non-luxury vehicles indicates the buyer base is likely bigger than expected.

Also bullish on the stock, Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter raised his price target for Tesla to $396 from $389 as he believes the company reported a “milestone quarter,” with margins, earnings, and cash flow easily beating expectations.

While there is a still a lot of “hair” on the company, bears will struggle to poke holes in the results, Potter contended, adding that Tesla appears increasingly likely to achieve financial self-sufficiency.

The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating on Tesla shares. Oppenheimer, JMP Securities, and RBC Capital also raised their price targets on the stock.

‘DON’T GET USED TO IT’

Still bearish on Tesla shares, UBS analyst Colin Langan reiterated a Sell rating on the stock in a research note titled “Profitability at last, just don’t get used to it.”

The analyst continues to expect Model 3 average selling prices to decline into fourth quarter and 2019 as Tesla begins delivering the new $46,000 mid-range model.

Voicing a similar opinion, Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill told investors that while Tesla posted its first quarterly profit and positive free cash flow in over two years thanks to higher-margin Model 3 sales, he remains concerned over margin in the first half of 2019 given an “unfavorable mix shift of Model 3s, decline in ZEV sales, service margins stay in -35%-40% and pricing pressure on Model S/X.” Gill also questions the speed and profitability of Tesla’s production of a $45K car, “not to mention the $35K version”, in order to match its backlog of orders.

The analyst reiterated an Underperform rating on the shares.

PRICE ACTION

In Thursday’s trading, shares of Tesla have gained about 5% to $302.46.


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L3 Technologies and Harris to merge

Harris, L3 Technologies to combine in merger of equals

L3 Technologies and Harris to merge, Stockwinners
L3 Technologies and Harris to merge, Stockwinners
L3 Technologies and Harris to merge, Stockwinners
L3 Technologies and Harris to merge, Stockwinners

Harris Corporation (HRS) and L3 Technologies (LLL) have agreed to combine in an all stock merger of equals.

Under the terms of the merger agreement, which was unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies, L3 shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 1.30 shares of Harris common stock for each share of L3 common stock, consistent with the 60-trading day average exchange ratio of the two companies.

Upon completion of the merger, Harris shareholders will own approximately 54% and L3 shareholders will own approximately 46% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis.

The combined company, L3 Harris Technologies, will be the 6th largest defense company in the U.S. and a top 10 defense company globally, with approximately 48,000 employees and customers in over 100 countries.

For calendar year 2018, the combined company is expected to generate net revenue of approximately $16B, EBIT of $2.4B and free cash flow of $1.9B.

The combination is expected to generate approximately $500M of annual gross pre-tax cost synergies, or $300M net of savings returned to customers, in year 3.

The savings will come from reducing direct and indirect spend, rationalizing footprint, consolidating corporate and segment headquarters, establishing a common shared services platform for IT and finance and reducing other overhead costs.

The company is expected to invest approximately $450M cash to achieve the synergies over the next 3 years.

The combined company will target $3B in free cash flow by year 3, driven by organic growth, cost synergies, working capital improvements and capital expenditure efficiencies. L3 Harris Technologies will be well capitalized with a strong balance sheet and a leverage ratio of 2.2 times net debt to trailing twelve months EBITDA.

The combined company will remain committed to maintaining an investment grade credit rating and a dividend payout consistent with each company’s current practice and deploying excess cash toward share repurchases, including up to $2B in share repurchases in the 12 months post-closing.

L3 Harris Technologies will be headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.

The combined company’s Board of Directors will have 12 members, consisting of six directors from each company. William Brown will serve as chairman and CEO, and Christopher Kubasik will serve as vice chairman, president and COO for the first two years following the closing of the transaction. For the third year, Brown will transition to executive chairman and Kubasik to CEO, after which Kubasik will become chairman and CEO.

The merger is expected to close in mid-calendar year 2019, subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including receipt of regulatory approvals and approval by the shareholders of each company.


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Musk’s tweet sends Tesla shares lower

Tesla slides after Elon Musk mocks SEC on Twitter

https://stockwinners.com/blog/
Musk’s tweet sends Tesla shares lower

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) dropped in Friday’s trading after Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, mocked the Securities and Exchange Commission in a tweet, calling the agency the “Shortseller Enrichment Commission.”

Last weekend Musk reached an agreement with the SEC to settle fraud charges, and that charge is currently pending approval from a federal judge.

MUSK MOCKS SEC

On Thursday, Musk tweeted, in apparent reference to the SEC, “Just want to [sic] that the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work. And the name change is so on point!”

Musk’s tweet came just hours after Musk and the SEC were told by U.S. District Court Judge Alison Nathan, who must approve the deal, to explain why the settlement is “fair and reasonable” by October 11, Bloomberg reported.

Separately, Musk took aim at BlackRock (BLK) and other large fund managers for fueling short sellers.

Musk alleged in a tweet that BlackRock and other firms pocket “excessive profit from short lending while pretending to charge low rates for ‘passive’ index tracking.”

SEC SETTLEMENT

This past weekend, the SEC announced that Musk agreed to settle the securities fraud charge brought against him last week.

The settlement requires that Musk will step down as Tesla’s chairman and will be ineligible to be re-elected chairman for three years.

Additionally, Tesla will appoint two new independent directors to its board and both the CEO and company will each pay $20M penalties to settle allegations that Musk misled investors in August by tweeting that he was considering taking Tesla private and had secured funding for the effort.

According to the SEC’s complaint, Musk’s misleading tweets caused Tesla’s stock price to jump by over 6% on August 7, and led to “significant market disruption.”

Additionally, the SEC is requiring that Musk get approval from the company’s lawyer before tweeting anymore company news, which reports had said could clamp down on Musk’s “headline-grabbing, unpredictable approach to promoting Tesla’s brand.”

Recode’s Teddy Schleifer reported via Twitter after the “Shortseller Enrichment Commission” tweet that the SEC agreement on Musk’s tweets “does not take effect for 90 days from the settlement date, per source. So he still has ~80 days to tweet whatever he wants.”

The SEC declined to comment on Musk’s tweet, Schleifer said.

Additionally, Fox Business Network’s Charlie Gasparino also tweeted, saying that the “@SEC_Enforcement continues to investigate @Tesla over possible misstatements on production/profitability targets-sources focus is on stated targets for Model 3/co profitability.

SEC sources say case is tougher case than @elonmusk ‘funding secured’ tweet.”

PRICE ACTION

In Friday morning trading, shares of Tesla are down 4.2% to $270.17.


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Engility Holdings sold for $2.5 billion

SAIC to acquire Engility in all-stock deal valued at $2.5B

Engility Holdings sold for $2.5 billion, Stockwinners
Engility Holdings sold for $2.5 billion, Stockwinners

SAIC (SAIC) and Engility Holdings (EGL) announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which SAIC will acquire Engility in an all-stock transaction valued at $2.5B, $2.25B net of the present value of tax assets, creating the second largest independent technology integrator in government services with $6.5B of pro-forma last 12 months’ revenue.

The combination of these two complementary businesses will accelerate SAIC’s growth strategy into key markets, enhance its competitive position and provide significant financial benefits.

The transaction will create market sub-segment scale in strategic business areas of national interest, such as defense, federal civilian agencies, intelligence, and space.

In addition, it expands the capabilities of both companies, bringing additional systems engineering, mission, and IT capabilities to a broader base of customers.

Under the terms of the merger agreement, Engility stockholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.450 shares of SAIC common stock for each share of Engility stock in an all-stock transaction.

Based on an SAIC per share closing price of $89.86 on September 7, 2018, the transaction is valued at $40.44 per share of Engility common stock or $2.5B in the aggregate, including the repayment of $900M in Engility’s debt.

SAIC has obtained a financing commitment letter from Citigroup Global Markets Inc. for a new seven-year senior secured $1.05B term loan facility under our existing credit agreement.

The proceeds will be used to repay Engility’s existing debt and associated fees. SAIC expects no immediate change to its quarterly cash dividend as a result of this transaction.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of the fiscal fourth quarter ending February 1, 2019, following customary closing conditions, including regulatory and SAIC and Engility shareholder approvals.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by both boards.

The businesses will continue to operate separately until the transaction closes. The combined company will retain the SAIC name and continue to be headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

Following closing, Tony Moraco will continue as CEO and as an SAIC board member. SAIC will expand its board to include two additional members from Engility’s board.


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Ocean Rig sold for $2.7B

Transocean to acquire Ocean Rig for $2.7B including debt

 

Ocean Rig sold for $2.7B, Stockwinners
Ocean Rig sold for $2.7B, Stockwinners

Transocean (RIG) and Ocean Rig UDW Inc. (ORIG) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Transocean will acquire Ocean Rig in a cash and stock transaction valued at approximately $2.7B, inclusive of Ocean Rig’s net debt..

The transaction consideration is comprised of 1.6128 newly issued shares of Transocean plus $12.75 in cash for each share of Ocean Rig’s common stock, for a total implied value of $32.28 per Ocean Rig share, based on the closing price on August 31, 2018.

This represents a 20.4% premium to Ocean Rig’s ten-day volume weighted average share price.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the board of directors of each company.

Transocean intends to fund the cash portion of the transaction consideration through a combination of cash on hand and fully committed financing provided by Citi.

The merger is not subject to any financing condition. Upon completion of the merger, Transocean’s and Ocean Rig’s shareholders will own approximately 79% and approximately 21%, respectively, of the combined company.

No changes to Transocean’s board of directors, executive management team, or corporate structure are anticipated as a result of the acquisition.

The Company will remain headquartered in Steinhausen, Switzerland, with significant operating presence in Houston, Texas, Aberdeen, Scotland and Stavanger, Norway.

The transaction, which is expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2019, is subject to the approval of both Transocean and Ocean Rig shareholders and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including applicable regulatory approvals.

The merger is not subject to any financing condition.

Also, consistent with the Company’s strategy of recycling less competitive rigs, Transocean will retire two of its floaters, the ultra-deepwater drillship C.R. Luigs and the midwater floater Songa Delta.

The rigs will be classified as held for sale and will be recycled in an environmentally responsible manner. Both floaters are currently stacked.

Transocean anticipates re-ranking the combined fleet, which may result in additional rigs being recycled.


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KMG Chemicals sold for $1.6B

Cabot Microelectronics to acquire KMG Chemicals for $1.6B

KMG Chemicals sold for $1.6B, Stockwinners
KMG Chemicals sold for $1.6B, Stockwinners

Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP) and KMG Chemicals (KMG), a global provider of specialty chemicals and performance materials, have entered into a definitive agreement under which Cabot Microelectronics will acquire KMG in a cash and stock transaction with a total enterprise value of approximately $1.6B.

Under the terms of the agreement, KMG shareholders will be entitled to receive, per KMG share, $55.65 in cash and 0.2000 of a share of Cabot Microelectronics common stock, which represents an implied per share value of $79.50 based on the volume weighted average closing price of Cabot Microelectronics common stock over the 20-day trading period ended on August 13.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the board of both companies and is expected to close near the end of calendar year 2018.

The combined company is expected to have annual revenues of approximately $1B and approximately $320M in EBITDA, including synergies, extending and strengthening Cabot Microelectronics’ position.

The transaction is subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including HSR clearance and approval by KMG shareholders.

Cabot Microelectronics expects to finance the cash portion of the transaction consideration through a combination of existing cash and additional debt supported by commitments from its key lenders.


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Tesla’s going private is questioned by analysts

Tesla consolidates as analysts debate if Musk should take carmaker private

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) jumped yesterday after CEO Elon Musk said he would like to see the company go private, but have since stepped into negative territory as analysts debate the idea.

 

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Tesla’s going private is questioned by analysts, Stockwinners
While Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois believes going private “feels like the right thing to do,” his peer at Morgan Stanley questions the feasibility of Musk actually being able to achieve that goal.

TAKING TESLA PRIVATE

Yesterday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that he is considering taking the electric carmaker private.

 

In an email to the company’s employees, the executive explained: “Earlier today, I announced that I’m considering taking Tesla private at a price of $420/share. […] As a public company, we are subject to wild swings in our stock price that can be a major distraction for everyone working at Tesla, all of whom are shareholders. Being public also subjects us to the quarterly earnings cycle that puts enormous pressure on Tesla to make decisions that may be right for a given quarter, but not necessarily right for the long-term. Finally, as the most shorted stock in the history of the stock market, being public means that there are large numbers of people who have the incentive to attack the company.”
Tesla gets a boost from Bud. See Stockwinners.com
Tesla’s going private is questioned by analysts

Meanwhile, members of Tesla’s board said on Wednesday that they have “met several times over the last week” and are “taking the appropriate next steps to evaluate” Musk’s desire to take the company private. Their talks with Musk, which started last week, included “discussions as to how being private could better serve Tesla’s long-term interests, and also addressed the funding for this to occur,” the board members stated in a press release.

‘RIGHT THING TO DO’:

Commenting on the news, Jefferies’ Houchois told investors in a research note that the move “feels right” even if Musk is downplaying how supportive public markets have been. With Tesla unable to take on more debt, the analyst wonders who may fund the potential deal and end up as a new large shareholder. While the second quarter de-stressed the near-term outlook, Houchois pointed out that Tesla did not reassure about sustained demand for Model 3 at high prices and that profitability can support organic funding of investments in future products and manufacturing capacity.

He continues to think Tesla will need additional capital to fund these or risk being caught with a narrow and ageing product range within 2 years. Noting that his discounted cash flow fair value points to $300 per share, the analyst raised his price target on the stock to $360 from $250, “bridging the gap” to the $420 potential going private bid. The analyst reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla.

BUT WILL IT BE FEASIBLE?:

While Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sympathizes with Elon Musk’s argument that Tesla could be better off as a private company, he questions the feasibility of the CEO actually being able to achieve that goal.
Taking the company private would assume either that the company is on the verge of generating self-sustaining cash flows or that it can tap into a range of strategic sources of capital not previously at its disposal, said Jonas, who sees strategic value at Tesla, but thinks the “LBO math required to support [a price of] $420 is extremely aggressive.”
Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics’ Car of the Year
The benefits of being private are outweighed by the risks of added financial leverage, which could be even more strategically limiting, added Jonas, who reiterated an Equal Weight rating and a $291 price target on Tesla shares.
Meanwhile, his peer at JPMorgan raised his price target for Tesla to $308 from $195 to reflect the possibility of the company going private. However, analyst Ryan Brinkman told investors that he still believes that Tesla’s valuation based on fundamentals alone “is worth no more than $195” per share.
The analyst added that he is not as certain as CEO Elon Musk on Tesla going private, and assigns only a 50% probability to such a scenario, while reiterating an Underweight rating on the shares.

PRICE ACTION:

In Wednesday afternoon trading, shares of Tesla have dropped 1.6% to $373.63.


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The Philly Fed rises to 25.7 in July

The Philly Fed bounce to 25.7

 

The Philly Fed rises to 25.7 in July , Stockwinners
The Philly Fed rises to 25.7 in July , Stockwinners

The Philly Fed bounce to 25.7 from a 19-month low of 19.9 in June and a 1-year high of 34.4 in May was accompanied by an ISM-adjusted Philly Fed rise to 59.7 from 59.4 in June and a 45-year high of 62.5 in May, versus the same 59.7 in April.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in July. All the broad indicators remained positive, with the general activity and new orders indexes improving this month. The survey’s price indexes suggest widespread increases for purchased inputs, and more firms reported price increases for their own manufactured goods. Expectations for the next six months continued to moderate but remain positive overall.

Monday’s Empire State headline slipped to 22.6 in July from an 8-month high of 25.0 in June but a lower 20.1 in May, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell more sharply, to 54.6 from a 12-year high of 57.9 in June and 56.9 in May.

The U.S. state of New York has been known by many nicknames, most notably as the Empire State, adopted as late as the 19th century. This nickname has been incorporated into the names of several state buildings and events, and is commonly believed to refer to the state’s wealth and resources.

For later July surveys, analysts expect a Richmond Fed drop to 17.0 from 20.0, a Dallas Fed drop to 30.0 from 36.5, a Chicago PMI decline to 60.0 from 64.1 in June, an ISM drop to 59.0 from 60.2, and an ISM-NMI drop to 58.0 from 59.1

The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip back to 58 from the 59 cycle-high set in May and June, versus the same 58 readings in six of eight months through April.

Producer sentiment is enjoying a lift from fiscal stimulus, the mining and factory resurgence, and a stronger global economy that has translated to strength in trade in the face of limited capacity constraints and little near-term inflation risk.


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Arconic higher following report of private equity interest

Arconic higher following report of private equity interest

Arconic higher following report of private equity interest, Stockwinners
Arconic higher following report of private equity interest, Stockwinners

Shares of Arconic (ARNC) are rising following a report that the aluminum producer has received interest from private equity firms including Apollo Global Management (APO).

PE  INTEREST

Arconic has received takeover interest from private-equity firms, including Apollo Global, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

A deal for the aerospace parts maker, which currently has a market value of $8.3B, could be worth over $10B, but no buyout agreement is imminent, the report said.

The company, which also holds $6.4B in debt, has a tumultuous recent history, facing an activist investor campaign from Elliott Management after being separated from the aluminum business now known as Alcoa (AA) in 2016.

The campaign led to the resignation of former Arconic Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld and an overhaul of the company’s board.

In addition, the company came under scrutiny after investigators discovered its aluminum composite panels contributed to the spread of a fire last year at London’s Grenfell Tower that killed 80 people.

At the time, Arconic said it had no control over how its products were used in the building.

‘PLAUSIBLE LBO CANDIDATE’

Following the WSJ report, Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani said two things stand out to make Arconic a “plausible” leveraged buyout candidate: Its low EV/EBITDA multiple, which creates potentially favorable entry and exit points, and its cash flow profile, which has room for improvement.

The analyst stated that a more lean and efficient approach could support considerably better cash generation.

While the reported private equity interest “adds a level of intrigue,” Lalwani still believes headwinds within it rings and disks business, working capital and CapEx issues and volatility associated with aluminum prices will be the key driver of shares in the near-term.

Given the aforementioned execution concerns, Lalwani kept an Equal Weight rating and $20 price target on Arconic shares.

‘VERY VIABLE LBO CANDIDATE’

Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth said he views Arconic as a “very viable” leveraged buyout candidate given its “highly depressed” multiples, operational and financial mismanagement, and “very strong” positions in automotive and aerospace end markets.

The analyst believes the issues at Firth Rixson are “very fixable” as the company is a new entrant into the disks market and said Arconic could be worth $24-$26 per share in a buyout. Woodworth has an Outperform rating on the shares with a $28 price target.

WHAT’S NOTABLE

On Monday, Arconic announced it had signed a new long-term contract with Boeing (BA) to supply aluminum sheet and plate for all models produced by Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

The multiyear contract, which extends and adds to the companies’ 2014 contract, is the largest to date and captures growth in the build rate increases of the Boeing 737 program.

PRICE ACTION

Arconic rose about 10%, or $1.73, to $19.12 in morning.


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GE to spin off several divisions

  • GE Healthcare to become standalone company

  • GE plans to fully separate Baker Hughes

GE introduces new company AiRXOS, Stockwinners
GE to spin off several of its divisions

GE (GE) announced the results of its strategic review.

GE will focus on Aviation, Power and Renewable Energy, creating a simpler, stronger, leading high-tech Industrial company.

In addition to the pending combination of its Transportation business with Wabtec, GE plans to separate GE Healthcare into a standalone company, pursue an orderly separation from BHGE (BHGE) over the next two to three years, make its corporate structure leaner and substantially reduce debt.

GE’s Board of Directors unanimously approved the plans announced today.

GE is making fundamental changes to how it will run the company.

The new GE Operating System will result in a smaller corporate headquarters focused primarily on strategy, capital allocation, talent and governance.

It will result in better execution, increased speed and is expected to generate at least $500 million in corporate savings by the end of 2020.

Under the new GE Operating System, most resources and services traditionally held at the headquarters level will be realigned to the businesses. GE is targeting an Industrial net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 2.5 times and a long-term A credit rating.

GE also plans to reduce Industrial net debt by approximately $25 billion by 2020 and maintain more than $15 billion of cash on the balance sheet.

GE expects to maintain its current quarterly dividend, subject to Board approval, until GE Healthcare is established as an independent entity.

At that time, the new GE Healthcare Board of Directors will determine GE Healthcare’s dividend policy, which GE expects to reflect healthcare industry practices.

Also at that time, the GE Board expects to adjust the GE dividend with a target dividend policy in line with industrial peers. Kieran Murphy, president and CEO of GE Healthcare, will continue to lead GE Healthcare as a standalone company, maintaining the GE brand.

GE expects to generate cash from the disposition of approximately 20% of its interest in the Healthcare business and to distribute the remaining 80% to GE shareholders through a tax-free distribution.

The structure, sequence and timing of these transactions will be determined and announced at a later date, but are expected to be completed over the next 12 to 18 months.

GE Healthcare will conduct business as usual throughout this process, continuing to serve its partners and customers.

GE plans to fully separate its 62.5% interest in BHGE in an orderly manner over the next two to three years. BHGE’s full stream offering brings together equipment, services and digital solutions to help its customers be more productive-a unique and powerful value proposition in a changing market.

The separation will provide BHGE with enhanced agility and the ability to focus on leading in the oil and gas industry.

Shares of the former DJIA component closed at $12.75.


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Tariffs kill jobs

European Union raises tariffs on Harley-Davidson to 31% from 6%

Harley-Davidson to move productions overseas to avoid tariffs

Harley-Davidson moves some productions out of U.S., Stockwinners
Harley-Davidson moves some productions out of U.S., Stockwinners

The European Union has enacted tariffs on various U.S.-manufactured products, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles (HOG).

These tariffs, which became effective June 22, 2018, were imposed in response to the tariffs the U.S. imposed on steel and aluminum exported from the EU to the U.S. Consequently, EU tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles exported from the U.S. have increased from 6% to 31%.

Harley-Davidson expects these tariffs will result in an incremental cost of approximately $2,200 per average motorcycle exported from the U.S. to the EU.

Harley-Davidson believes the tremendous cost increase, if passed onto its dealers and retail customers, would have an immediate and lasting detrimental impact to its business in the region, reducing customer access to Harley-Davidson products and negatively impacting the sustainability of its dealers’ businesses.

Therefore, Harley-Davidson will not raise its manufacturer’s suggested retail prices or wholesale prices to its dealers to cover the costs of the retaliatory tariffs. In the near-term, the company will bear the significant impact resulting from these tariffs, and the company estimates the incremental cost for the remainder of 2018 to be approximately $30M-$45M.

On a full-year basis, the company estimates the aggregate annual impact due to the EU tariffs to be approximately $90M-$100M.

To address the substantial cost of this tariff burden long-term, Harley-Davidson will be implementing a plan to shift production of motorcycles for EU destinations from the U.S. to its international facilities to avoid the tariff burden. Harley-Davidson expects ramping-up production in international plants will require incremental investment and could take at least 9 to 18 months to be fully complete.

Harley-Davidson maintains a strong commitment to U.S.-based manufacturing which is valued by riders globally.

Increasing international production to alleviate the EU tariff burden is not the company’s preference, but represents the only sustainable option to make its motorcycles accessible to customers in the EU and maintain a viable business in Europe. Europe is a critical market for Harley-Davidson.

In 2017, nearly 40,000 riders bought new Harley-Davidson motorcycles in Europe, and the revenue generated from the EU countries is second only to the U.S.

Harley didn’t specify which international plants will boost output for EU markets. The company operates manufacturing facilities in Brazil, India and Australia, and is beginning production in Thailand this year.

HOG closed at $44.21, it last traded at $42.50.


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