Truck sales decline in November

Classes 5-8 truck orders soften in November amid trade and tariff worries

Truck sales downturn could be canary in the coal mine

There are eight classes of commercial motor vehicles in the United States, and they’re divided into three, more general categories: light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty. Commercial motor vehicles or trucks that operate on U.S. highways can be classified based on their gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR).

ACT Research said in an earlier report:

“Preliminary November data show that Classes 5-8 net order volumes were uniformly soft. Combined NA Classes 5-8 intake fell 15% m/m and 38% y/y in November on a nominal basis. Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data show the industry booked 17,500 units in November, down 20% from October, while Classes 5-7 orders fell 8% m/m, to 15,300 units.

Complete industry data for November, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-December.

Various Classes of Vehicles, Stockwinners

ACT’s State of the Industry:

Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales.

Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs.

This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package.

A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.

“Preliminary November data show that Class 8 net orders failed to sustain October’s encouraging start to the order season,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

He continued, “The freight market downturn worsened in the past month and uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers’ psyches. With rising pressure on carrier profits from the combined impact of lower rates and the recent, rather sudden jump in insurance premia, recent events have not developed in the industry’s favor.” Denoyer concluded,

“While private fleets continue to add capacity on the retail end, the market is increasingly heeding for-hire price signals and the stage is being set to right-size the fleet, bringing it closer to equilibrium with the work to be done.”

Historically, Dow Jones Transports have sold off prior to the rest of the market. The .djt has turned bearish as is shown above.

Publicly traded companies in the space include ArcBest (ARCB), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Knight-Swift (KNX), Old Dominion (ODFL), Swift Transportation (SWFT), Werner (WERN), Paccar (PCAR), Navistar (NAV)and Cummins (CMI).

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The Medicines Co. sold for $9.7B

Novartis to pay $85 per share in cash for each MDCO share

The Medicines Company (MDCO) announced that it has entered into definitive agreement in which Novartis (NVS) will acquire the company for $85 per share in an all-cash transaction, implying a fully diluted equity value of $9.7B.

Novartis to pay $85 per share in cash for each MDCO share, Stockwinners

The stock closed Friday down $1.21 to $68.55. See our previous blog post.

The purchase price represents a premium of approximately 45% to The Medicines Company’s closing share price of $58.65 on November 18, the last trading day prior to news reports of a potential transaction between The Medicines Company and Novartis.

Novartis receives positive CHMP opinion for Kymriah, Stockwinners
Novartis to pay $85 per share in cash for each MDCO share, Stockwinners , Stockwinners

The transaction was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies. Under the terms of the merger agreement, Novartis will commence a tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of The Medicines Company for $85 per share in cash.

Following the completion of the tender offer, a wholly owned subsidiary of Novartis will merge with The Medicines Company and shares of The Medicines Company that have not been tendered and purchased in the tender offer will be converted into the right to receive the same price per share.

Completion of the transaction is expected in Q1 of 2020, pending the successful completion of the tender offer and other customary closing conditions.

Until that time, The Medicines Company will continue to operate as a separate and independent company. The company expects to file regulatory submissions for inclisiran in the U.S. in Q4 of 2019 and in Europe in the first quarter of 2020.

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Medicines Co. is in play

Novartis holds talks about potential acquisition of Medicines Co

Medicines Co. (MDCO) has attracted takeover interest from companies including Novartis (NVS), which has been holding talks about a potential acquisition of the New Jersey-based company, Bloomberg’s Ed Hammond, Nabila Ahmed and Dinesh Nair report, citing people familiar with the matter.

Novartis is eyeing Medicines Co., Stockwinners

According to the people, Novartis is conducting due diligence on Medicines Co. Other potential acquirers have also expressed interest in buying Medicines Co., they add.

Novartis is looking for products to replace its out of patent products, Stockwinners

The Medicines Company focuses on developing therapeutics for the treatment of therosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The company is developing Inclisiran, an investigational RNA interference therapeutic that inhibits production of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, which controls LDL-cholesterol levels.

Novartis has historically had a strong cardiovascular drug franchise, but lost ground when Diovan, once a $6 billion-per-year seller, lost patent protection in 2012 and left the company without an immediate, innovative follow-up product.

Novartis Chief Executive Officer Vas Narasimhan has relied on deals to sharpen the company’s focus on innovative drugs for cancer and rare diseases. The Basel, Switzerland-based company has announced close to $16 billion of acquisitions since he took over as CEO in February 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He has also spun off the Alcon Inc. eye-care division and ditched a stake in a consumer-health venture.

Baird’s Comments

Baird analyst Madhu Kumar said he has utter conviction that The Medicine’s Co. inclisiran can disrupt cholesterol therapy. The analyst cited its results from the ORION-9/10/11 trial which was released and supported his thesis. He said the remaining question is whether the company can find an acquirer or partner to help launch inclisiran.

Kumar reiterated his Outperform rating and $100 price target on The Medicine’s Co. shares.

JPMorgan’s Take

JPMorgan analyst Jessica Fye noted that Bloomberg is reporting that Novartis (NVS) and other potential acquirers have expressed interest in buying The Medicines Company (MDCO), adding that her talks with investors indicate that Novartis is viewed as the most likely buyer.

She further notes that Medicines Co. shares were trading above her standalone valuation at yesterday’s close, which she attributes to some anticipation of a deal, and that today’s move puts the stock in a price range greater than 40% above her standalone target.

Outside of Novartis, Fye also believes an acquirer could be a less expected company, but if only one company is interested they could try to “wait it out” to the point where investors might begin to worry that Medicines could have to take on the substantial inclisiran launch investment independently. However, if multiple players are interested, as Bloomberg suggests, she thinks “competitive tension” could lead to a near-term acquisition.

MDCO is up $12.35 to $71.00.

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Tech Data sold for $5.4 billion

Tech Data to be acquired by Apollo Global for $130 per share in cash

Tech Data (TECD) announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management (APO).

Tech Data is taken private at $130 per share, Stockwinners

Through the agreement, the affiliate of the Apollo Funds will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Tech Data common stock for $130 per share in a transaction with an enterprise value of approximately $5.4B.

Apollo buys Tech Data for $5.4B, Stockwinners

The purchase price represents a 24.5% premium to the unaffected 30-day volume weighted average closing share price of Tech Data’s common stock ended October 15, the last trading day prior to published market speculation regarding a potential transaction involving the company.

The Tech Data Board of Directors has unanimously approved the transaction and recommends that Tech Data shareholders vote in favor of the transaction.

The transaction is not subject to a financing condition and is expected to close in the first half of calendar year 2020, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions including expiration or termination of the applicable waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, foreign regulatory approvals and approval by the holders of a majority of the outstanding Tech Data shares.

Tech Data expects to hold a Special Meeting of Shareholders to consider and vote on the transaction agreement as soon as feasible after the mailing of the proxy statement to shareholders.

Consistent with the Board’s commitment to maximizing shareholder value, the terms of the agreement provide that Tech Data will be permitted to actively solicit alternative acquisition proposals from third parties during a “go-shop” period from the date of the agreement until December 9.

There is no guarantee that this process will result in a superior proposal. Following the close of the transaction, Rich Hume will continue to lead Tech Data as CEO, and the company will continue to be headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.

Tech Data will become a privately held company, and Tech Data’s common shares will no longer be publicly listed.

Tech Data Corporation operates as an IT distribution and solutions company. The company offers endpoint portfolio solutions, including personal computer systems, mobile phones and accessories, printers, peripherals, supplies, endpoint technology software, and consumer electronics. It also provides advanced portfolio solutions, such as data center technologies comprising storage, networking, servers, advanced technology software, and converged and hyper-converged infrastructure, as well as specialized solutions. 

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Watch shares of Mirati Therapeutics

Mirati presents data from sitravatinib in combination with nivolumab trials

Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) announced the presentation of initial data from its ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial of sitravatinib in combination with nivolumab in metastatic urothelial cancer patients with documented progression on a platinum-chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitor.

Mirati is in focus on cancer data, Stockwinners

The data were presented in an oral presentation at the Society of Immunotherapy of Cancer 34th Annual Meeting.

Preliminary results from the ongoing Phase 1 study of neoadjuvant sitravatinib combined with nivolumab in patients with resectable squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, SNOW trial, were also presented in a poster session.

The preliminary data suggest that the combination of neoadjuvant sitravatinib and nivolumab is safe and active in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity who are candidates for resection.

Chart shows Sitravatinib in action, Stockwinners

Tumor reduction was observed in all eight patients who were eligible for evaluation, including one complete pathological response.

All patients received postoperative radiation therapy, and none required postoperative chemotherapy.

With a median follow-up of 31.4 weeks, all patients are alive with no disease recurrence to date.

In most patients, treatment with sitravatinib led to a decrease in myeloid-derived suppressor cells and a shift towards M1-type macrophages in the tumor microenvironment, supporting previous preclinical findings.

“Sitravatinib is a spectrum-selective kinase inhibitor that potently inhibits receptor tyrosine kinases, including TAM family receptors that has the potential to increase responsiveness in patients whose tumors are resistant to checkpoint inhibitors. The initial efficacy data from the Phase 2 clinical trial presented today in patients with checkpoint refractory mUC is promising and extends the clinical benefit data beyond what has already been demonstrated by sitravatinib combined with nivolumab in checkpoint refractory non-small cell lung cancer,” said Charles Baum, M.D., CEO of Mirati.

Sitravatinib offers hope for cancer patients, Stockwinners

“In addition, we are evaluating sitravatinib in patients who have progressed on checkpoint therapy, including those with NSCLC and renal cell cancer, and we continue to expand development efforts of sitravatinib through our collaboration with BeiGene in multiple indications including NSCLC, renal cell cancer, hepatocellular cancer, ovarian cancer, and gastric cancer.”

MRTX closed at $104.78.

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Nektar Therapeutics is in focus

Nektar presents new clinical, preclinical data from immuno-oncology pipeline

Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) announced the presentation of five clinical and preclinical data abstracts focused on its immuno-oncology portfolio at the 2019 Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer Annual Meeting.

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Nektar Therapeutics is in focus, Stockwinners

New clinical results from the PIVOT-02 Phase 1/2 study were shared in an oral presentation titled, “Clinical activity of BEMPEG plus NIVO in previously untreated patients with metastatic melanoma: updated results from the Phase 1/2 PIVOT-02 Study” during the Combination Phase 1-2 Clinical Trials Session on Saturday, November 9th.

Additional preclinical data presented at the annual meeting highlighted NKTR-255, an IL-15 agonist discovered by Nektar.

The presentations demonstrated that NKTR-255 enhanced activity of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity against tumor cells in vitro, and that it also enhanced in vivo efficacy of ADCC-inducing antibodies in models of human solid tumors.

NKTR-255 is designed to engage the IL-15 pathway to stimulate and expand natural killer cells and promote the survival and expansion of memory CD8+ T cells without inducing suppressive regulatory T cells.

Nektar product pipeline, Stockwinners

NKTR-255 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial in patients with either relapsed or refractory Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma or multiple myeloma.

“The data presented at this year’s SITC meeting continue to showcase the potential of our I-O portfolio, most notably our key IL-2 pathway program, bempeg, and our new IL-15 pathway program, NKTR-255,” said Jonathan Zalevsky, Ph.D., Chief Research & Development Officer at Nektar.

“The 18-month follow-up data presentation for the Stage IV melanoma patients in our PIVOT-02 study reinforces the promise of BEMPEG and NIVO to work synergistically to achieve a deepening of response over time, while maintaining a favorable safety and tolerability profile. We’re pleased that at this 18 month timepoint, 85% of patients who achieved responses have ongoing responses and median PFS has not yet been reached.”

Separately, Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) announced updated results from the first-in-human Phase 1a study of NKTR-358, a novel T regulatory cell stimulator in development for the treatment of autoimmune and other chronic inflammatory conditions.

Nektar reports new data, Stockwinners

The data, which were presented at the 2019 Annual Meeting of the American College of Rheumatology in Atlanta, show that treatment with NKTR-358 led to a marked and selective dose-dependent expansion in the numbers and proliferative capacity of FoxP3+CD25bright Treg cells, and a measurable activation of Treg cells.

These data are a continuation of initial results reported at 2019 Annual European Congress of Rheumatology in June 2019.

NKTR-358 is designed to treat autoimmune and inflammatory conditions by correcting the immune system imbalance that results from reduced numbers and impaired function of immune-regulating Treg cells.

NKTR-358 works by targeting the interleukin-2 receptor complex to stimulate the proliferation and activation of Treg cells.

NKTR-358 was discovered by Nektar and is being co-developed and commercialized in partnership with Eli Lilly (LLY).

Eli Lilly announces Alimta label expanded by FDA, Stockwinners
Eli Lilly and Nektar report new data, Stockwinners

“We’re pleased to report that final results from our first-in-human Phase 1a study continue to support the positive safety and tolerability profile of NKTR-358, while reinforcing its selective and measurable impact on the numbers, expansion and activation of regulatory T cells or Tregs,” said Brian Kotzin, M.D., senior VP, Clinical Development and NKTR-358 Program Lead at Nektar.

“Autoimmune and inflammatory diseases are marked by an imbalance in the body’s self-tolerance and self-regulatory immune pathways, and the ability of NKTR-358 to expand functional Tregs could help restore normal balance.

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Watch shares of ShockWave Medical

ShockWave Medical initiates study of coronary intravascular lithotripsy in Japan

Shockwave Medical (SWAV) announced that the company has initiated the DISRUPT CAD IV study of IVL in heavily calcified coronary arteries that is intended to support regulatory device approval in Japan.

Shockwave begins heart study in Japan, Stockwinners

The first CAD IV patient was enrolled earlier this week by the principal investigator of the study, Shigeru Saito, M.D., Director of Cardiology and Catheterization Laboratories and Vice President, Shonan Kamakura General Hospital.

DISRUPT CAD IV is a prospective, multicenter, single-arm study to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of the Shockwave Coronary IVL System with the Shockwave C2 IVL Catheter in the treatment of de novo, calcified, stenotic, coronary arteries prior to stenting.

The study is expected to enroll up to 64 patients at 8 sites in Japan. Similar to the DISRUPT CAD III Study protocol, CAD IV will assess the absence of major adverse cardiac events within 30 days of the index procedure as the primary safety endpoint.

Shock Wave system, Stockwinners

The primary effectiveness endpoint is procedural success, defined as stent delivery with a residual stenosis less than 50 percent, and without in-hospital MACE.

Study enrollment is expected to be completed by June 2020, from which enrolled patients will be followed for two years. Coronary artery calcium physically impairs stent expansion and is perhaps the single most important predictor of early stent thrombosis and restenosis after stent procedures.ii, iii, iv Coronary IVL is a therapy designed to treat calcified artery blockages with sonic pressure waves historically used to treat patients with kidney stones.

The technology seeks to minimize trauma within the artery by delivering pulsatile sonic pressure waves locally to fracture both intimal and medial calcium in the artery wall but pass through surrounding soft vascular tissue in a safe manner.

Shockwave C2 Coronary IVL catheters are commercially available for the treatment of de novo coronary artery disease in Europe and other select countries; in Japan they are limited to investigational use within the DISRUPT CAD IV Study. In the United States they are limited to investigational use within the DISRUPT CAD III Study.

SWAV closed at $34.83.

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BeiGene shares soar on Amgen stake

Amgen to buy 20.5% stake in BeiGene for $2.7B at $174.85 per ADS

BeiGene (BGNE) and Amgen (AMGN) announced a global strategic oncology collaboration for the commercialization and development in China of Amgen’s XGEVA, KYPROLIS, and BLINCYTO, and the joint global development of 20 oncology assets in Amgen’s pipeline, with BeiGene responsible for development and commercialization in China.

Amgen takes 20% stake in BeiGene, Stockwinners

In connection with the collaboration, Amgen will purchase a 20.5% stake in BeiGene for approximately $2.7B in cash at $174.85 per American Depositary Share, or ADS.

Amgen will receive one seat on BeiGene’s Board of Directors.

Under the agreement, BeiGene will commercialize XGEVA, KYPROLIS and BLINCYTO in China for five or seven years, during which time the parties will equally share profits and losses.

Amgen enters Chinese market by taking stake in BeiGene, Stockwinners

Following the commercialization period, BeiGene will have the right to retain one product and will be entitled to receive royalties on sales in China for an additional five years on the products not retained; and XGEVA was approved in China in 2019 for patients with giant cell tumor of the bone and is in development for prevention of skeletal-related events in cancer patients with bone metastases.

Blincyto is indicated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, Stockwinners

KYPROLIS is in late-stage development in China for patients with multiple myeloma, and BLINCYTO is in late-stage development in China as a treatment for adult patients with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Kyprolis is indicated for multiple myeloma , Stockwinners

BeiGene has agreed to jointly develop 20 Amgen oncology pipeline assets globally, which include targeted small-molecule agents such as AMG 510, a first-in-class investigational KRAS G12C inhibitor, as well as BiTE antibodies, for solid and hematologic malignancies; Amgen and BeiGene will co-fund global development costs, with BeiGene contributing up to $1.25B worth of development services and cash over the term of the collaboration.

BeiGene is entitled to receive royalties from global sales of each product outside of China, with the exception of AMG 510; For each pipeline asset that is approved in China, BeiGene will receive commercial rights for seven years from approval, during which time the parties will share equally in profits and losses.

BeiGene is also entitled to receive royalties from sales in China for five years after the seven-year commercial term; and BeiGene will also have the right to retain approximately one of every three approved pipeline assets, up to a total of six, other than AMG 510, for commercialization in China, during which time the parties will share in profits and losses.

The transactions have been approved by the boards of directors of both companies and are expected to close in the first quarter of 2020, subject to approval by a majority vote of BeiGene’s shareholders pursuant to the listing rules of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the expiration or termination of applicable waiting periods under applicable antitrust laws, and satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.

BeiGene has already received commitments from shareholders holding approximately 40% of its outstanding shares to vote in favor of the transactions.

BGNE closed at $138.34, last traded at $174.58.

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LVMH offers to buy Tiffany for $120 per share or $14.5B

Tiffany is expected to reject the offer

According to several sources including Bloomberg, Financial Times and Reuters, Louis Vuitton owner LVMH has approached Tiffany & Co (TIF) with a $14.5 billion acquisition offer, people familiar with the matter said, at a time when the U.S. luxury jeweler grapples with the impact of tariffs on its exports to China.

LVMH, which has for years been looking for ways to expand in the U.S. market, submitted a preliminary, non-binding offer to Tiffany earlier this month, one of the sources said.

LVMH is looking to boost U.S. sales, Stockwinners

LVMH’s offer valued Tiffany at about $120 per share, another of the sources added. Tiffany shares ended trading on Friday at $98.55.

Tiffany is expected to reject the $14.5B offer, Stockwinners

Financial Times reports that Tiffany is expected to rebuff the takeover approach from French luxury group LVMH, with the US jeweller believing the offer undervalues the company, according to people familiar with the matter. Tiffany’s advisers were on Sunday still assessing the surprise indicative offer from LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group by sales, with the board set to consider the next move. 

LVMH, which is behind brands such as Fendi, Christian Dior and Givenchy, as well as Veuve Cliquot champagne, has stood out for several years as one of the top performers in the upscale retail sector in China.

Tiffany, on the other hand, has not been as resilient. Beyond the tariffs that have been triggered by the trade war between the United States and China, a lower Chinese domestic sales tax has also contributed to double-digit decreases in its sales to Chinese tourists in the United States and in other destinations.

High-end brands have also long relied on Hong Kong as a major shopping hub drawing visitors from mainland China in particular, and four months of pro-democracy demonstrations are starting to take their toll.

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Watch Shares of Adverum Biotechnologies!

Adverum Biotechnologies reports additional data from Phase 1 trial of ADVM-022

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) announced additional clinical data for the first cohort of patients in the ongoing OPTIC phase 1 clinical trial of ADVM-022, the company’s intravitreal injection gene therapy, in treatment-experienced patients with wet age-related macular degeneration.

Adverum Biotechnologies reports additional data from Phase 1 trial of ADVM-022 in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration, Stockwinners

Adverum also announced enrollment plans for the third and fourth cohorts in the ongoing OPTIC trial.

The third cohort has been initiated and patients will be treated with ADVM-022 at a dose of 2 x 10^11 vg/eye, the same dose used in the second cohort.

Subsequently, patients in the fourth cohort will be treated with ADVM-022 at a dose of 6×10^11 vg/eye, the same dose used in the first cohort.

Since inflammation has generally been mild and responsive to steroid eye drops, patients in the third and fourth cohorts will receive prophylactic steroid eye drops instead of prophylactic oral steroids.

Previously, on September 12, 2019, Adverum presented data from the first cohort in the ongoing OPTIC trial at a pre-specified 24-week time point.

Wet and Dry Macular Degeneration, Stockwinners

The additional data for this cohort includes key outcomes with a median follow-up of 34 weeks.

In treatment-experienced patients previously requiring frequent anti-VEGF injections to maintain vision, the data continue to demonstrate that the single ADVM-022 injection in this cohort was sufficient to maintain vision, with zero rescue injections required for any of the six patients.

Aaron Osborne, MBBS, chief medical officer of Adverum, added, “The clinical profile of ADVM-022 demonstrates this gene therapy’s potential to be a significant advance for patients with wet AMD. It is very encouraging that there continues to be zero rescue injections in this cohort of treatment-experienced patients with more than 6 months follow-up on all patients. We are expanding the development of ADVM-022 and are excited to share that enrollment is now open for the third cohort in OPTIC.

We look forward to being able to deliver this novel intravitreal gene therapy candidate as soon as possible to patients with wet AMD and diabetic retinopathy, our second indication for ADVM-022. We are grateful for all of the investigators, patients, and caregivers who continue to participate in the OPTIC trial.”

Adverum plans to begin dosing patients in the third cohort of the OPTIC trial in the fourth quarter of 2019 and plans to begin enrollment in the fourth cohort in the first quarter of 2020.

Adverum plans to present 52-week data from the first cohort of patients in the OPTIC trial as well as 24-week data from the second cohort of patients in the first half of 2020.

Adverum plans to submit an investigational new drug application for the treatment of ADVM-022 in diabetic retinopathy in the first half of 2020.

Piper Jaffray

Commenting on Adverum Biotechnologies update at AAO, Piper Jaffray analyst Tyler Van Buren notes that zero rescue injections have been required and disease activity by OCT and visual acuity has been maintained with 6 ADVM-022 patients now out to a median of 34 weeks.

Importantly, despite the intense criticism over inflammation and visual acuity fluctuations during the initial data disclosure last month, numerous KOLs at the conference were unconcerned and believe that ADVM-022 looks like a potential treatment option so far, he contends.

Overall, the analyst argues that safety continues to be clean in these initial patients and looks forward to the 52-week update in first half of 2020.

Van Buren reiterates an Overweight rating and $14 price target on the shares as ADVM-022 continues to look like a viable gene therapy candidate for wet AMD, which has $1B-plus potential.

ADVM closed at $5.29.

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Sarepta reports positive results for muscular dystrophy Type 2E treatment

Sarepta announces results from gene therapy trial for beta sarcoglycanopathy

Sarepta Therapeutics (SPRT) announced the nine-month functional results from three Limb-girdle muscular dystrophy Type 2E ,LGMD2E, clinical trial participants who received SRP-9003. SRP-9003 is an investigational gene therapy intended to transduce skeletal and cardiac muscle with a gene that codes for the full-length, native beta-sarcoglycan protein, the lack of which is the sole cause of LGMD2E.

Sarepta drops after U.K. trial halt,
Sarepta rises on muscular dystrophy data, Stockwinners

In Cohort 1 of the SRP-9003 study, three participants ages 4-13 were treated with an infusion of SRP-9003 at a dose of 5x1013vg/kg.

Improvements in functional outcomes were observed at day 270 for all three participants.

“We have now observed consistent functional improvements, in addition to high levels of expression of the missing protein of interest and strong results in related biomarkers, in both of our first cohorts for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and LGMD2E. We intend to test one higher dose of SRP-9003 in LGMD2E participants, select our clinical dose and then advance our SRP-9003 program, along with our other five LGMD programs, as rapidly as possible,” said Doug Ingram, Sarepta’s president and chief executive officer.

“With the results of our first LGMD2E cohort, Sarepta continues to build its gene therapy engine, an enduring model created to design, develop and bring to the medical and patient community transformative therapies for those living with, and too often dying from, rare genetic disease.”

No new safety signals were observed and the safety profile seen to date supports the ability to dose escalate in the next cohort of the study. As previously disclosed, two participants in the study had elevated liver enzymes, one of which was designated a serious adverse event (SAE), as the participant had associated transient increase in bilirubin. Both events occurred when the participants were tapered off oral steroids and, in both instances, elevated liver enzymes returned to baseline and symptoms resolved following supplemental steroid treatment.

SPRT is up $5.52 to $86.86.

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FDA panel approves Aimmune Therapeutics’ peanut allergy treatment

FDA Panel approves peanut allergy treatment, Stockwinners

A Food and Drug Administration panel voted 8-1 in favor of the benefits of Aimmune Therapeutics’ (AIMT) peanut allergy treatment outweigh the risks. The panel also voted 8-1 in favor of the drug’s safety. The body of independent advisers voted 7-2 in favor of effectiveness.

If approved, Palforzia could come with a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy, or REMS. A REMS includes special steps a physician must take when prescribing a medication to limit serious side effects.

Side effects are key when it comes to Palforzia. In a key study, 11.6% of patients who received the peanut allergy treatment dropped out due to side effects vs. 2.4% of patients who took a placebo. Further, Palforzia patients needed emergency allergy shots more frequently.

Peanut allergy is expected to be a $3.9B market by 2027, Stockwinners

The advisory committee vote is not binding, but is a recommendation to the full FDA.

Peanut allergies are the leading cause of death from food-induced allergic reactions in the United States but a lack of approved preventive treatments has left patients and caregivers desperate for options.

Palforzia, previously known as AR101, is an oral immunotherapy consisting of fixed doses of powdered peanut that is sprinkled over food daily.

While it does not aim to cure peanut allergy, the treatment’s clinical trials have shown that patients consuming small doses of the substance to which they are allergic become desensitized over time, reducing the likelihood or severity of a reaction to it.

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If approved, Palforzia is expected to have a black box warning, the FDA’s harshest, and strict restrictions requiring the therapy to be administered in a certified facility.

Aimmune expects to win approval for use of Palforzia in patients aged 4 to 17 and said it is considering a list price range of between $3,000 and $20,000 a year.

Analyst Comments

Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond kept an Overweight rating and $60 price target on Aimmune after an FDA’s Allergenic Products Advisory Committee, or APAC, voted in favor of the company’s AR101 peanut allergy drug on both efficacy and safety.

The analyst said, after the vote, he “increasingly likes the chances for Palforzia approval by late January 2020 (if not sooner).” Raymond noted that the stock is likely to open sharply higher on Monday as there is a 30% short interest in Aimmune, and said he is a buyer on the open as he sees “a lot of room to go.”

AIMT last traded at $24.67.

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Tenet to spin off its Conifer Health

Tenet concludes Conifer strategic review, to complete spin-off by end of 2Q21

Tenet Healthcare (THC) announced its intention to pursue a tax-free spin-off of its Conifer business as a separate, independent publicly traded company.

Tenet to spinoff Conifer Health in a tax free transaction, Stockwinners

The company expects to complete the spin-off by the end of the second quarter of 2021.

This announcement is the culmination of the Conifer strategic review process announced in December 2017.

Ronald A. Rittenmeyer, Executive Chairman and CEO, said, “After an extensive review of Conifer’s strategic alternatives, in which we evaluated multiple options for the business while simultaneously driving significant and sustainable improvements in performance, we are pleased to announce plans to spin off Conifer into a separate, publicly traded company.

This decision supports our longstanding objectives to maximize the value of Conifer, build on its strong growth potential and deliver the best outcome for Conifer and for Tenet shareholders.” Rittenmeyer continued, “Conifer has unmatched experience and scale in offering revenue cycle management solutions for healthcare providers and a proven track record of delivering high-touch, high-value services to clients.

Tenet to spin off Conifer Health, Stockwinners

Pursuing a tax-free spin-off is an important step forward in Conifer’s evolution, and we believe the business is well-positioned to capitalize on its growth opportunities as a standalone company.”

Rittenmeyer added, “We were pleased with Tenet’s performance in the second quarter, with Adjusted EBITDA comfortably within our Outlook range and consistent with consensus estimates.

Volume growth strengthened in our hospital business, with increases in both admissions and adjusted admissions. USPI also delivered favorable volume growth and Conifer had another strong quarter.

We remain excited about the future of our healthcare services offerings at our 65 hospitals and approximately 500 outpatient centers which will remain part of the Tenet enterprise.”

The separation process will include a thorough review of the necessary executive leadership changes, Board membership needs and key commercial milestones that Conifer must achieve in order to provide the optimal governance structures and business foundations for a successful public company.

Specific details about these actions and milestones will be made available in due course.

Among other things, the spin-off will be subject to finalization of the entity structure of the spun-off business, assurance that the separation will be tax-free to Tenet’s shareholders for U.S. federal income tax purposes, executing a restructured services agreement between Conifer and Tenet, finalization of Conifer’s capital structure, the effectiveness of appropriate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, final approval from the Tenet Board of Directors, and other customary conditions.

The spin-off will not require a vote by Tenet shareholders and is supported by Common Spirit which owns a minority interest in Conifer Health Solutions, LLC.

The transaction is being targeted for completion by the end of the second quarter of 2021, but there can be no assurance regarding the timeframe for completing the spin-off, the allocation of assets and liabilities between Tenet and Conifer, or that the spin-off will be completed at all.

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Netflix, a battle of bulls and bears!

Netflix lost more than $18 billion in market capitalization in 2 days

Disney loss having minimal impact on Netflix subscribers. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more
Netflix subscribers grew less than expected. Stockwinners

On Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $0.60 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.56 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. Revenue grew 26.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said in its shareholders letter it expects third quarter earnings of approximately $1.04 per share on revenue of approximately $5.25 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2019.

Bears vs Bulls, Stockwinners

The company saw its first loss in US subscribers last quarter, and a 2.7 million paid customers added globally, nearly half of what was forecast.

Competition

At the same time, the company is facing a steeper path than ever in the United States. Netflix lost subscribers this quarter for the first time in years, a combination of the price hike and a content loss. As the US market becomes oversaturated with streaming services — with WarnerMedia, Disney, and Apple all launching streaming services — the only way to ensure growth is going outside the United States. Netflix currently has 60 million paying domestic subscribers, and company believes they can get to 90 million, but the risk of market saturation is real, and raises difficult questions for the company’s content strategy.

BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon lowered his price target on Netflix (NFLX) to $440 after its reported shortfall on subscriber addition in Q2, which he expects to “fuel the debate” about the company’s pricing power and the role of new content. Given the sequential decline in its U.S. markets and the approaching launch of Disney+ (DIS), the analyst contends that this may be a “more than just the usual” earnings-miss driven debate. Longer term however, Salmon believes that the company’s revenue trend remains on track, keeping his Outperform rating on the stock and recommending Netflix, Amazon (AMZN), and Disney as a “collective investment” in the global streaming race.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson lowered his price target for Netflix to $440 from $450 after the company posted its worst subscriber miss ever, short by 2.3M net adds, while revenue was in line and EBIT well ahead. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.

Disney to end Netflix distribution agreement in 2019. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar for details
Disney ended Netflix distribution agreement this year. See Stockwinners.com

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft views post-earnings selloff in shares of Netflix as a buying opportunity. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the streaming service.

KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst Andy Hargreaves says that despite soft Q2 results, he believes Netflix retains competitive advantages that should support excellent revenue and profit growth well into the future. The likely decline in the stock price improves the risk/reward, but increased confidence in the potential for upside to his estimates is likely needed for a more positive view of the shares, he contends. Hargreaves reiterates a Sector Weight rating on the shares.

WarnerMedia streaming service hurts Netflix, Stockwinners

JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth to $425 from $450 while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The Q2 net adds miss was meaningful, but the company’s Q2 results are often volatile and this quarter contained a number of moving pieces, Anmuth tells investors in a research note. Netflix’s back half of the year content slate is strong and the company is seeing significantly better trends quarter-to-date, adds the analyst. History suggests that Q2 is a “difficult quarter from which to extrapolate NFLX’s trajectory,” says Anmuth.

Stifel

Stifel analyst Scott Devitt said Netflix shares may be range bound until the company reports Q3 earnings following its miss in Q2 on its domestic and international paid net sub add guidance. He believes management’s explanations for the current quarter miss “appear reasonable,” though Netflix “will have to prove, as it has done many times, that its value proposition remains one of the best,” Devitt tells investors in a post-earnings research note. Following last night’s report, Devitt lowered his price target on Netflix shares to $400 from $425 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter raised his price target for Netflix to $188 from $183, while reiterating an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported quarterly results. The analyst expects content spending to trigger substantial cash burn for many years, and notwithstanding four Netflix price increases in the last five years, he notes that cash burn continues to grow. Content migration and price hikes could cause a deceleration in subscriber growth, and consistently negative free cash flow makes DCF valuation impossible, he adds.

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Pancreatic cancer data sends shares of Tyme Technologies higher

Tyme Technologies presents updated data from TYME-88-Panc Phase II study

Tyme Techs. shares jump of data, Stockwinners

Tyme Technologies (TYME) announced that its multicenter open-label Phase II TYME-88-Panc study evaluating SM-88 as an oral monotherapy in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer continues to demonstrate encouraging results and a well-tolerated safety profile.

The data from the TYME-88-Panc study were presented at the European Society of Medical Oncology 21st World Congress on Gastrointestinal Cancer.

The Annual meeting is held in Barcelona this year, Stockwinners

Updated results from the ongoing multicenter open-label Phase II TYME-88-Panc study involved 49 heavily pretreated patients with radiographically progressive metastatic pancreatic cancer who had significant disease related morbidity before receiving TYME’s investigational agent SM-88.

More than 80% of patients had received at least two prior lines of therapy. Of the 49 patients, 38 patients were evaluable for efficacy, as defined in the protocol.

Pancreatic cancer, Stockwinners

TYME-88-Panc is a two-part study in which Part 1 was intended to determine optimal dosing and assess if early clinical benefit supported further development of SM-88 in pancreatic cancer.

This study is being performed under a TYME IND with input from the FDA prior to study initiation. In this study, based on information available as of April 25, 2019, the median overall survival of evaluable patients was 6.4 months.

Certain efficacy indicators correlate A RECIST clinical benefit rate of stable disease or better was achieved by 44% of patients with available imaging. Notably, patients achieving stable disease or better demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in survival with a 92% reduction in risk of death.

The CBR was durable with majority of these patients remaining in stable disease or better at more than 7 months after receiving treatment with SM-88.

The measurement of CTCs is emerging as an important prognostic indicator in patients with pancreatic cancer. This is now the second TYME study in cancer patients showing that SM-88 reduces CTCs.

In a previous study of patients with prostate cancer, SM-88 treatment was also associated with a reduction in CTC count. In the TYME-88-Panc study, a median reduction of 63% in CTC burden was observed in evaluable patients. Importantly, patients with available results reaching an 80% reduction or greater in CTCs demonstrated a 60% decrease in risk of death.

In addition to these findings from the TYME-88-Panc study, data were also presented on subgroup analyses. TYME identified several screening criteria that were associated with rapidly declining prognostic factors defined as greater than 2 lines of prior therapy; age greater than 75 years old; albumin less than 3.5 g/dl. Patients with no indicators of poor prognosis had a better trend in survival.

TYME identified key sub-groups of patients who performed better. Patients with 1 or 2 prior lines of therapy had a better trend in survival. Female patients had a statistically significant trend toward better survival. These encouraging findings warrant further clinical evaluation of these subgroups. As of April 25, 2019, the study reported that SM-88 was well tolerated with only 4.0% of patients who experienced serious adverse events deemed at least possibly related to SM-88. One patient with reported SAEs continued on treatment.

The TYME-88-Panc research results are from an investigational study. SM-88 is not approved for the treatment of patients with any disease condition.

TYME is up 30 cents to $1.52.

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