Government forecasts steady energy prices in 2020 and 21

EIA says U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3M b/d in 2020

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices will average $65 per barrel in 2020 and $68/b in 2021, compared with an average of $64/b in 2019.

Domestic productions to rise in 2020, Stockwinners

EIA expects West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude oil prices will average about $5.50/b lower than Brent prices through 2020 and 2021, compared with an average WTI discount of about $7.35/b in 2019.

Global liquid fuels inventories were mostly unchanged in 2019, and EIA expects they will grow by 0.3 million b/d in 2020 and then decline by 0.2 million b/d in 2021.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Production in all regions to rise in 2020, Stockwinners

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.2 million b/d in 2019, up 1.3 million b/d from 2018.

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million b/d in 2020 and 13.7 million b/d in 2021.

  • On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) enacted Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Convention), which lowers the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used in ocean-going vessels from 3.5% of weight to 0.5%.
  • EIA expects this regulation will encourage global refiners to increase refinery runs and maximize upgrading of high-sulfur heavy fuel oil into low-sulfur distillate fuel to create compliant bunker fuels.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. refinery runs will rise by 3% from 2019 to a record level of 17.5 million b/d in 2020, resulting in refinery utilization rates that average 93% in 2020.
  • EIA expects one of the most significant effects of the regulation will be on diesel wholesale margins, which will rise from an average of 43 cents per gallon (gal) in 2019 to a forecast peak of 53 cents/gal in March 2020 and an annual average of 50 cents/gal in 2020. EIA expects diesel margins to decline to 49 cents/gal in 2021.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.60/gal in 2019, and EIA forecasts that they will average $2.63/gal in both 2020 and 2021.
Oil Rigs, See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read the latest on oil and rig count
Production to continue at record high, Stockwinners

Most of the production growth in the forecast occurs in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

Publicly traded companies in the space include BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and Total (TOT). 

Ocean Rig sold for $2.7B, Stockwinners
Consolidations should continue in the industry, Stockwinners


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Anadarko Petroleum sold for $50 billion

Chevron to acquire Anadarko for $65 per share or $33B


Anadarko sold for $50 billion, Stockwinners

Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Anadarko Petroleum (APC) to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Anadarko in a stock and cash transaction valued at $33B, or $65 per share.

Based on Chevron’s closing price on April 11, and under the terms of the agreement, Anadarko shareholders will receive 0.3869 shares of Chevron and $16.25 in cash for each Anadarko share.

Chevron sees synergies of $2 billion, Stockwinners

The total enterprise value of the transaction is $50B.

“The acquisition of Anadarko will significantly enhance Chevron’s already advantaged Upstream portfolio and further strengthen its leading positions in large, attractive shale, deepwater and natural gas resource basins.

Furthermore, Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES) is a successful midstream company whose assets are well aligned with the combined companies’ upstream positions, which should further enhance their economics and execution capabilities.”

Chevron’s Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth said, “This transaction builds strength on strength for Chevron. The combination of Anadarko’s premier, high-quality assets with our advantaged portfolio strengthens our leading position in the Permian, builds on our deepwater Gulf of Mexico capabilities and will grow our LNG business.

It creates attractive growth opportunities in areas that play to Chevron’s operational strengths and underscores our commitment to short-cycle, higher-return investments.

This transaction will unlock significant value for shareholders, generating anticipated annual run-rate synergies of approximately $2 billion, and will be accretive to free cash flow and earnings one year after close,” Wirth concluded.

“The strategic combination of Chevron and Anadarko will form a stronger and better company with world-class assets, people and opportunities,” said Anadarko Chairman and CEO Al Walker.

“I have tremendous respect for Mike and his leadership team and believe Chevron’s strategy, scale and operational capabilities will further accelerate the value of Anadarko’s assets.”

The acquisition consideration is structured as 75% stock and 25% cash, providing an overall value of $65 per share based on the closing price of Chevron (CVX) stock on April 11.

In aggregate, upon closing of the transaction, Chevron will issue approximately 200M shares of stock and pay approximately $8B in cash. Chevron will also assume estimated net debt of $15B.

Total enterprise value of $50B includes the assumption of net debt and book value of non-controlling interest.

The transaction has been approved by the boards of both companies and is expected to close in the second half of the year. The acquisition is subject to Anadarko (APC) shareholder approval. It is also subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.

Upon closing, the company will continue be led by Michael Wirth as chairman and CEO. Chevron will remain headquartered in San Ramon, California.

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