Netflix, a battle of bulls and bears!

Netflix lost more than $18 billion in market capitalization in 2 days

Disney loss having minimal impact on Netflix subscribers. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more
Netflix subscribers grew less than expected. Stockwinners

On Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $0.60 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.56 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. Revenue grew 26.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said in its shareholders letter it expects third quarter earnings of approximately $1.04 per share on revenue of approximately $5.25 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2019.

Bears vs Bulls, Stockwinners

The company saw its first loss in US subscribers last quarter, and a 2.7 million paid customers added globally, nearly half of what was forecast.

Competition

At the same time, the company is facing a steeper path than ever in the United States. Netflix lost subscribers this quarter for the first time in years, a combination of the price hike and a content loss. As the US market becomes oversaturated with streaming services — with WarnerMedia, Disney, and Apple all launching streaming services — the only way to ensure growth is going outside the United States. Netflix currently has 60 million paying domestic subscribers, and company believes they can get to 90 million, but the risk of market saturation is real, and raises difficult questions for the company’s content strategy.

BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon lowered his price target on Netflix (NFLX) to $440 after its reported shortfall on subscriber addition in Q2, which he expects to “fuel the debate” about the company’s pricing power and the role of new content. Given the sequential decline in its U.S. markets and the approaching launch of Disney+ (DIS), the analyst contends that this may be a “more than just the usual” earnings-miss driven debate. Longer term however, Salmon believes that the company’s revenue trend remains on track, keeping his Outperform rating on the stock and recommending Netflix, Amazon (AMZN), and Disney as a “collective investment” in the global streaming race.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson lowered his price target for Netflix to $440 from $450 after the company posted its worst subscriber miss ever, short by 2.3M net adds, while revenue was in line and EBIT well ahead. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.

Disney to end Netflix distribution agreement in 2019. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar for details
Disney ended Netflix distribution agreement this year. See Stockwinners.com

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft views post-earnings selloff in shares of Netflix as a buying opportunity. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the streaming service.

KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst Andy Hargreaves says that despite soft Q2 results, he believes Netflix retains competitive advantages that should support excellent revenue and profit growth well into the future. The likely decline in the stock price improves the risk/reward, but increased confidence in the potential for upside to his estimates is likely needed for a more positive view of the shares, he contends. Hargreaves reiterates a Sector Weight rating on the shares.

WarnerMedia streaming service hurts Netflix, Stockwinners

JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth to $425 from $450 while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The Q2 net adds miss was meaningful, but the company’s Q2 results are often volatile and this quarter contained a number of moving pieces, Anmuth tells investors in a research note. Netflix’s back half of the year content slate is strong and the company is seeing significantly better trends quarter-to-date, adds the analyst. History suggests that Q2 is a “difficult quarter from which to extrapolate NFLX’s trajectory,” says Anmuth.

Stifel

Stifel analyst Scott Devitt said Netflix shares may be range bound until the company reports Q3 earnings following its miss in Q2 on its domestic and international paid net sub add guidance. He believes management’s explanations for the current quarter miss “appear reasonable,” though Netflix “will have to prove, as it has done many times, that its value proposition remains one of the best,” Devitt tells investors in a post-earnings research note. Following last night’s report, Devitt lowered his price target on Netflix shares to $400 from $425 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter raised his price target for Netflix to $188 from $183, while reiterating an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported quarterly results. The analyst expects content spending to trigger substantial cash burn for many years, and notwithstanding four Netflix price increases in the last five years, he notes that cash burn continues to grow. Content migration and price hikes could cause a deceleration in subscriber growth, and consistently negative free cash flow makes DCF valuation impossible, he adds.

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Sinclair scores a homerun!

Sinclair Broadcast to acquire 21 Regional Sports Networks from Disney at valuation of $10.6B


Sinclair Broadcast buys Fox College Sports from Disney, Stockwinners

Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) and The Walt Disney Company (DIS) announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Sinclair will acquire the equity interests in 21 Regional Sports Networks and Fox College Sports, which were acquired by Disney in its acquisition of Twenty-First Century Fox.

Sinclair scores a home run by this purchase, Stockwinners

The transaction ascribes a total enterprise value to the RSNs equal to $10.6B, reflecting a purchase price of $9.6B, after adjusting for minority equity interests.

That’s far cheaper than the $15 billion to $25 billion range most analysts had predicted Disney could get.

Disney assets do not fetch the price that was expected for the assets, Stockwinners

Completion of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the approval of the U.S. Department of Justice.

The RSN portfolio, which excludes the YES Network, is the largest collection of RSNs in the marketplace today, with an extensive footprint that includes exclusive local rights to 42 professional teams consisting of 14 Major League Baseball teams, 16 National Basketball Association teams, and 12 National Hockey League teams.

In calendar year 2018, the RSN portfolio delivered a combined $3.8B in revenue across 74M subscribers.

The RSNs will be acquired via a newly formed indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Sinclair, Diamond Sports Group.

Byron Allen has agreed to become an equity and content partner in a newly formed indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Sinclair and an indirect parent of Diamond.

Allen, who bought The Weather Channel in 2018, is the Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Entertainment Studios, a global media, content and technology company.

Byron Allen who bought the Weather Channel in 2018 invests in the transaction, Stockwinners

Sinclair expects to capitalize Diamond with $1.4B in cash equity, comprised of a combination of approximately $0.7B of cash on hand and a contribution of $0.7B in the form of new fully committed debt at Sinclair Television Group.

In addition, the purchase price will be funded with $1B of fully committed privately-placed preferred equity of a newly-formed indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Sinclair and direct parent of RSN Holding Company.

The remainder of the purchase price is being funded by $8.2B of fully committed secured and unsecured debt incurred by Diamond.

The transaction will be treated as an asset sale for tax purposes, with Sinclair receiving a full step-up in basis.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of both Sinclair and Disney.

In March, Sinclair, Blackstone and Amazon backed the New York Yankees’ $3 billion re-purchase of the 80% of YES Network the team had sold to Fox in 2014. YES Network was the 22nd channel in the former Fox portfolio, and was seen as the crown jewel.

And back in February, Sinclair partnered with the Chicago Cubs to create a new RSN in Chicago, to be called Marquee Sports Network, that will air all local Cubs games beginning in 2020.

Sinclair also own the Tennis Channel, Stockwinners

Sinclair is the largest owner of local television stations (it owns 200) in the country. SBG also owns the Tennis Channel. (It is also a partner in the joint venture sports streaming platform Stadium.) By 2020, it will operate 22 regional sports networks, plus a minority ownership stake in YES.

SBGI closed at $44.95. DIS closed at $134.33.

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21st Century Fox boosts it’s offer for Sky

21st Century Fox boosts offer for Sky to GBP 14 or $32.5B 

21st Century Fox boosts it's offer for Sky , Stockwinners
21st Century Fox boosts it’s offer for Sky , Stockwinners

21st Century Fox (FOXA) and the Independent Committee of Sky PLC (SKYAY) announced that they have reached agreement on an increased recommended pre-conditional cash offer for the fully diluted share capital of Sky which Fox and its affiliates do not already own at a price of GBP 14.00 for each Sky share.

The price of GBP 14.00 per Sky share represents an increase of approximately 12% to the Comcast (CMCSA) offer price of GBP 12.50 per Sky share announced on April 25, Fox says in a statement.

Under the terms of the increased offer, Sky shareholders will be entitled to receive for each Sky share GBP 14.00 in cash.

The increased price includes an amount in lieu of a final dividend in respect of the financial year ended June 30, 2018.

It is intended that the acquisition will be implemented by means of a scheme of arrangement under applicable U.K. law.

The Sky Independent Committee announced that it intends to unanimously recommend that the Sky shareholders unaffiliated with 21st Century Fox vote in favor of the scheme and take no action in relation to the Comcast offer.

Fox currently anticipates that the acquisition will complete in Q3 of 2018.

Fox added that the Sky acquisition is not a condition to completion of the Disney (DIS) transaction.

Completion of the Sky acquisition will not affect the amount or form of consideration that stockholders of 21st Century Fox receive in the Disney deal, it said.

“We strongly believe that a combined 21CF and Sky will be a powerful driver for the continued growth and vibrancy of the UK and broader global creative industries.

The enhanced scale and capabilities of the combination will enrich Sky’s ability to continue on its mission for years to come, especially at a time of dynamic change in our industry.

This transformative transaction will position Sky so that it can continue to compete within an environment that now includes some of the largest companies in the world, but none of whom have demonstrated the same local depth of investment and commitment to the UK and to Europe,” added Fox.


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Disney raises its offer for 21st Century Fox to $38 per share

Disney boosts offer for 21st Century Fox assets to $38 per share

Disney raises its offer for 21st Century Fox to $38 per share

Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) announced that it has entered into an amended and restated merger agreement with Walt Disney (DIS) pursuant to which Disney has agreed to acquire for a price of $38 per 21CF share the same businesses Disney agreed to acquire under the previously announced merger agreement between 21CF and Disney.

This price represents a “significant increase” over the purchase price of approximately $28 per share included in the Disney merger agreement when it was announced in December 2017.

The amended and restated Disney merger agreement offers a package of consideration, flexibility and deal certainty enhancements that is superior to the proposal made by the Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) on June 13, Fox stated.

Under the amended and restated Disney merger agreement, Disney would acquire those businesses on substantially the same terms, except that, among other things, Disney’s offer allows 21CF stockholders to elect to receive their consideration, on a value equalized basis, in the form of cash or stock, subject to 50/50 proration.

The collar on the stock consideration will ensure that 21st Century Fox shareholders will receive a number of Disney shares equal to $38 in value if the average Disney stock price at closing is between $93.53 and $114.32.

In light of the revised terms contained in the amended and restated Disney Merger Agreement, 21CF’s board, after consultation with its outside legal counsel and financial advisors, has not concluded that the unsolicited proposal it received on June 13, 2018 from Comcast could reasonably be expected to result in a “Company Superior Proposal” under the Disney merger agreement.

However, the amended and restated Disney merger agreement contains no changes to the provisions relating to the company’s directors’ ability to evaluate a competing proposal.

As announced on May 30, 2018, 21CF has established a record date of May 29, 2018 and a meeting date of July 10, 2018, for a special meeting of its stockholders to, among other things, consider and vote on a proposal to adopt the Disney merger agreement.

21CF has determined to postpone its special meeting of stockholders to a future date in order to provide stockholders the opportunity to evaluate the terms of Disney’s revised proposal and other developments to date.

Once 21CF determines the new date for 21CF’s special meeting of stockholders, the date will be communicated to 21CF stockholders.


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