Tesla crashes after latest report

Model Y to become available in the U.S. in Fall 2020

Model 3 to become available in China in Fall 2020

Tesla (TSLA) shares are sharply lower in Thursday’s trading after the electric car maker posted a loss that surprised investors.

Tesla (TSLA) reported a 2nd Quarter June 2019 loss of $1.12 per share on revenue of $6.3 billion. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion. Revenue grew 58.7% on a year-over-year basis.

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Tesla shares tumble following its results, Stockwinners

The company said in it continues to expect positive GAAP earnings in the third quarter. The current consensus estimate is earnings of $0.27 per share for the quarter ending September 30, 2019. Tesla reported 95,356 vehicle deliveries in Q2 and production of 87,048 vehicles in Q2.

Tesla CEO says Model Y production ramp will be ‘significantly faster’ – Musk cites parts compatibility of the company’s existing models. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in the company’s Q2 update letter, “This quarter, we are simplifying our approach to guidance. We are most focused on expanding our manufacturing footprint in new regions, launching new products and continuing to improve the customer experience, while generating and using cash sustainably. Local production and improved utilization of existing factories is essential to be cost competitive in each region.

Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 to become available in China, Stockwinners

We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020. We are also accelerating our European Gigafactory efforts and are hoping to finalize a location choice in the coming quarters. We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year. Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding. We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus. Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5B-$2.0B, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.”

TSLA shares are down $36.90 to $228.50

Model Y to become available Fall 2020, Stockwinners

ANALYSTS’ COMMENTS

Barclays

Neither revenues nor earnings were “anywhere near a record” in Tesla’s Q2 results, which “calls into question the growth story,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Tesla’s loss in Q2 “should mark the top of the current ‘swing trade.'”

The results should temper bullish expectations for profit leverage, says Johnson, who reiterates an Underweight rating on the shares with a $150 price target.

Canaccord

Canaccord analyst Jed Dorsheimer lowered his price target on Tesla to $350 from $394 following Q2 results that were roughly inline with his expectations.

The analyst said its free cash flow suggests the company has a bit more time to grow into its profitability expectations. Dorsheimer maintained his Buy rating on Tesla shares.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy notes that Tesla posted a Q2 EPS miss. Broadly, while Tesla has maintained its narrative, the analyst expects the stock to be under pressure near-term, as expectations had risen post the Q2 deliveries release earlier this month. Levy reiterates an Underperform rating and $189 price target on the shares as the Q2 results reminded him of the challenges ahead for Tesla in gross margin, especially as it relates to Models S/X. While Tesla has maintained its delivery guidance, he believes the company will be challenged to meet it given challenges to S/X volumes and the phase-out of the U.S. EV tax credit.

Model S interior, Stockwinners

Jefferies

Tesla last night reported a “challenging set of numbers,” although its pre-restructuring loss was in line with consensus estimates and its free cash flow better with a $600M operating inflow, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois tells investors in a research note titled “Q2 Challenging but Still Encouraging.”

Tesla’s vehicle gross margin improved but remains low for sustainable profitability at this stage, adds the analyst. Further, he believes e. JB Straubel moving to an advisory position adds to fears of “executive fatigue.” Houchois keeps a Buy rating on Tesla with a $300 price target.

JMP Securities

JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha lowered his price target on Tesla to $337 after its Q2 results, saying the company’s revenue was “solid” but gross margins disappointed even in the absence of reduced regulatory credits.

The analyst adds that the output of 87K cars was below capacity, which is a positive because of “low utilization” of its Model S and X, but notes that the “fixed-cost asset under-absorption” suggests the company is struggling with reducing Model 3 costs as expected.

Morgan Stanley

Following Tesla’s analyst call, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas shares his key thoughts, including his view that JB Straubel giving up the Chief Technical Officer role “may be the biggest news of the quarter.” It is unclear what motivated the 15-year veteran of the company to give up direct operational responsibility, but, “unfortunately, nobody asked this on the call,” Jonas said.

Elon Musk said that Q4 will be “very strong, but said the first and second quarters of 2020 will be “tough,” noted Jonas, who thinks investors should be ready for more quarter-to-quarter sales volatility heading into 2020. He keeps an Equal Weight rating and $230 price target on Tesla shares.

Model X sales slow down, Stockwinners

Needham

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill kept his Underperform rating on Tesla after its “significant” loss reported in Q2 along with a “slight” increase in its margins hurt by average selling price reductions across all of its vehicle models. The analyst notes that while the company affirmed its FY19 delivery target and forecast profitability in Q4, he is cautious on that outlook as it would require a “significant snapback” in the second half of the year. Gill sees Tesla remaining challenged by “structurally low margins” and growing competition.

Nomura Instinet

Nomura Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle lowered his price target for Tesla to $270 from $300 following last night’s “mixed” Q2 results. Deliveries exceeded initial expectations meaningfully, but profitability metrics “underwhelmed,” Eberle tells investors in a post-earnings research titled “Spinning Its Wheels.”

The analyst doubts the quarter “will inspire enough confidence to get the stock working.” As such, he keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla.

Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch lowered his price target for Tesla to $356 from $437, noting that while automotive revenue and full company free cash flow beat expectations, full company revenue, gross margin and EPS results were below, driven partially by Model S/X ASP declines.

The analyst believes this dynamic will fuel bearish investors focused on limited demand for Tesla products, but believes bulls will focus on strong volumes, stable Model 3 ASP and better than expected cash flow as the company appears to be getting increasingly efficient with its spending. Rusch has an Outperform rating on the shares.

Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter reiterates an Overweight rating on Tesla following last night’s Q2 results while lowering his price target for the shares to $386 from $396.

Forward looking metrics related to revenue, such as orders and deliveries, are “all trending in the right direction – and that’s probably the most important thing,”

Potter tells investors in a research note. The post-market selloff was driven initially by mix-related concerns, and the resulting pressure on gross margin, but then Tesla’s Chief Technology Officer subsequently resigned on the earnings call, and the selling pressure intensified, explains Potter. He believes today’s pullback provides an entry point into Tesla shares.

Roth Capital

Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin lowered his price target for Tesla to $224 form $238 after the company posted weak Q2 EPS, with automotive margins marking the lowest levels since Q1 of 2018. The analyst reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives lowered his price target for Tesla to $220 from $230 to reflect a softer margin profile and pushed out profitability looking ahead. The analyst notes that the company delivered some bad news that will weigh on shares on Thursday as the company significantly missed the Street on the bottom line with “disappointing” gross margins that fundamentally call into question its ability to show sustainable profitability on the heels of lower margin Model 3 units going forward. Ives reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

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Canary in the mine, Homebuilders

Homebuilders continue tumble as Credit Suisse downgrades several in space

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Homebuilder shares tumble; Stockwinners

Many believe that housing market is the engine of the economy. If that is the case, we should expect a slow down in the economy. Housing prices have always been one of the first indicators of a slowdown or a coming out of a recession for the economy. We should brace ourselves for lower home prices!

Shares of homebuilders continued their decline after an analyst at Credit Suisse downgraded several companies in the space, saying that she expects more tempered demand and rising affordability concerns to weigh on homebuilding sentiment and broader group valuation, offsetting any near-term earnings beats.

A different analyst at the firm downgraded home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) this morning, due to his concern that their recent results and stock prices have disconnected from housing.

HOMEBUILDERS DOWNGRADED

Credit Suisse analyst Susan Maklari told investors in a research note this morning that although she believes housing and macro fundamentals remain “intact,” including high consumer confidence and sustained low unemployment, unit gains are likely to moderate.

She sees any near-term earnings beats to be offset by even more tempered demand and rising affordability concerns. She sees average order growth for 2019 of 8%, compared to 11% in 2018 and 12% in 2017, and sees “relative” outperformance from builders who are able to capture above-trend gains due to product mix, like D.R. Horton (DHI), and geographic positioning, like PulteGroup (PHM). Maklari downgraded Lennar (LEN) and Meritage Homes (MTH) to Neutral from Outperform and lowered her respective price targets for the shares to $45 from $55 and to $36 from $50.

The analyst sees more limited upside to Lennar looking ahead as its strategic initiatives, as well as geographic exposure, are reflected in its current valuation.

While Meritage has benefited from efforts to drive improvements in operations in its East region as well as the rollout of its entry level targeted homes, Maklari believes much of the initial gains have been captured and she expects limited upside to the current valuation as comparisons become more difficult.

The analyst also downgraded KB Home (KBH) to Underperform from Neutral and lowered her price target to $18 from $27, saying that over the last several months her channel checks and Realtor Survey have pointed to slowing demand in higher cost MSAs, including California, which accounted for about 50% of the company’s 2017 revenues.

HOME DEPOT, LOWE’S ALSO DOWNGRADED

Another analyst at Credit Suisse, Seth Sigman, this morning downgraded Home Depot and Lowe’s, both to Neutral from Outperform, citing his concern that their recent results and stock prices have disconnected from housing. In a research note of his own, Sigman said his key concern is that home prices will continue to moderate, at least temporarily, as higher rates weigh on affordability.

Overall, Sigman still sees EPS growing, but sees less upside over the next 12 months relative to current estimates.

The analyst continues to view Home Depot as best-in-class in retail, but struggles to find multiple upside from its current premium level as housing sentiment shifts and some uncertainty arises. While he continues to expect meaningful improvement in sales and operating profit at Lowe’s under new CEO Marvin Ellison, Sigman thinks consensus estimates are baking that in. The analyst cut his price target on Home Depot to $204 from $222 and on Lowe’s to $111 from $115.

PRICE ACTION

Shares of Lennar dropped 3%, while Meritage Homes dropped 6.6% and KB Home declined 4.4%. Other homebuilders were dragged lower, including D.R. Horton, PulteGroup and Toll Brothers (TOL), which are all down over 3%.

Additionally, Home Depot and Lowe’s both declined over 4%. Further, XHB, the homebuilding ETF, is down nearly 3% today and about 10% month-to-date.


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L Brands drops after PINK CEO departs

L Brands slides after slashing earnings forecast, PINK brand CEO departure 

L Brands drops after PINK CEO departs, Stockwinners
L Brands drops after PINK CEO departs, Stockwinners

Shares of L Brands (LB) are sliding after the parent of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works reported better than expected quarterly earnings and revenue but lowered its profit outlook.

While Jefferies analyst Randal Konik reduced his price target for L Brands and recommended investors sell the shares, his peer at Citi argued that the guidance cut was expected and reiterated a Buy rating on the stock.

QUARTERLY RESULTS

Last night, L Brands reported second quarter adjusted earnings per share of 36c and revenue of $2.98B, both above the consensus of 34c and $2.93B, respectively.

The company also lowered its FY18 earnings per share view to $2.45-$2.70 from $2.70-$3.00, with consensus at $2.77.

Additionally, L Brands said second quarter consolidated same-store sales for Stores and Direct were up 3%, while same-store sales for the quarter at Victoria’s Secret were down 1% and up 10% at at Bath & Body Works.

Alongside quarterly results, the company announced that Denise Landman, CEO of Victoria’s Secret PINK, has made the decision to retire at the end of this year.

Pink CEO departs, Shares slide

Amy Hauk, currently president for merchandising and product development of Bath & Body Works, will replace Landman as CEO of Victoria’s Secret PINK.

JEFFERIES SAYS SELL SHARES

In a research note to investors this morning, Jefferies’ Konik lowered his price target for L Brands to $20 from $23 and recommended investors sell the shares.

The analyst argued that the company’s fiscal year earnings guidance cut is still not low enough, and sees PINK on “precipice of massive declines.” Further, the analyst thinks L Brands’ free cash flow guidance is too high as its net debt continues to grow.

The dividend is at risk in the medium-term and the company needs to save cash now “before the next recession,” Konik contended.

The analyst reiterated an Underperform rating on the stock.

Meanwhile, his peer at JPMorgan also lowered his price target for L Brands to $26 from $28.

While the stock was bracing for an earnings forecast reduction, the magnitude of management’s near-term third quarter cut was greater than expected, calling for break-even earnings at the low-end, the first time in more than a decade, analyst Matthew Boss contended.

He reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares. Voicing a similar opinion, Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow lowered his price target for L Brands to $30 from $42 and kept a Market Perform rating on the shares as the core Victoria’s Secret concept continues to struggle.

Pointing out that the second quarter results “raised a number of red flags,” including “severe” margin contraction, “bloated” inventory, Bath & Body Works returning to margin contraction and issues at PINK, Nomura Instinet analyst Simeon Siegel reiterated a Neutral rating and $31 price target on L Brands’ shares.

CITI SAYS RISK/REWARD STILL ATTRACTIVE

Still bullish on the stock, Citi analyst Paul Lejuez told investors that while the turnaround path for Victoria’s Secret “remains unclear,” the market expected last night’s fiscal 2018 guidance cut.

With a 7.5% dividend yield, the stock’s risk/reward is attractive, particularly given actions by management that suggest “they have more than enough liquidity to continue funding the dividend,” Lejuez argued.

The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on the shares and said he views the dividend as safe.

While lowering her price target for L Brands to $44 from $49, B. Riley FBR analyst Susan Anderson kept a Buy rating on the stock as she believes Bath & Body Works continues to excel and Victoria’s Secret remains a work in progress.

While weaker PINK performance is “disappointing,” the analyst believes management is taking steps to correct lounge performance as well as improve performance in lingerie.

Further, Anderson highlighted that L Brands reiterated its commitment to share repurchases and dividend, and reiterated that the company has substantial liquidity to fund the dividend and other expenditures.

PRICE ACTION

In Thursday’s trading, shares of L Brands have plunged over 12% to $28.50.


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Supreme Court ruling moves retail stocks

Physical retailers rise, online retailers drop after Supreme Court tax ruling

Supreme Court ruling moves retail stocks, Stockwinners
Supreme Court ruling moves retail stocks, Stockwinners

Shares of brick-and-mortar retailers are rising, while shares of e-commerce firms are slipping, after the Supreme Court ruled that online retailers can be required to collect sales taxes in states where they have no physical presence.

SUPREME COURT RULING

On Thursday, the Supreme Court sided with the state of South Dakota in a fight it brought against Wayfair (W) to require a business that has no physical presence in the state to collect its sales tax.

Supreme Court ruling moves retail stocks, Stockwinners
Supreme Court ruling moves retail stocks, Stockwinners

The Supreme Court ruled in a 5-to-4 vote that a 1992 judgement in Quill Corporation v. North Dakota regarding the physical presence rule was “unsound and incorrect,” according to a judgement posted to the high court’s website.

Justice Anthony Kennedy, in writing for the majority opinion, said the Quill decision had distorted the economy and resulted in states losing annual tax revenues between $8B-$33B.

“Quill puts both local businesses and many interstate businesses with physical presence at a competitive disadvantage relative to remote sellers,” he wrote.

“Remote sellers can avoid the regulatory burdens of tax collection and can offer de facto lower prices caused by the widespread failure of consumers to pay the tax on their own.”

WHAT’S NOTABLE:

Following the ruling, industry trade organization National Retail Federation issued a statement saying,

“Retailers have been waiting for this day for more than two decades. The retail industry is changing, and the Supreme Court has acted correctly in recognizing that it’s time for outdated sales tax policies to change as well.

This ruling clears the way for a fair and level playing field where all retailers compete under the same sales tax rules whether they sell merchandise online, in-store or both.”

ANALYST COMMENTARY

KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma called the ruling a negative for Wayfair, arguing that it may reduce some of the price differential that has helped it gain share from traditional peers.

The ruling is also a negative, but to a lesser degree, for eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), said Yruma, who views the impact on those two as more related to compliance and implementation.

He adds that the news could be a modest positive for retailers of high-ticket and branded products, such as Best Buy (BBY), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Kirkland’s (KIRK), RH (RH) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM).

PRICE ACTION

At Thursday midday, Target (TGT) rose 1.8%, Walmart (WMT) was up 0.7%, Costco (COST) rose roughly 1.1% while Amazon (AMZN) was down 0.4%, Etsy dropped about 2.5%, eBay fell 1.4% and Wayfair (W) was down 1.2%.

In addition, Avalara (AVLR), a software company focused on automated tax compliance that recently held its initial public offering, gained 17.1%.


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Generic drug makers tumble on pricing

Generic drug makers under pressure following Aceto, Novartis news

Generic drug makers tumble on pricing, Stockwinners
Generic drug makers tumble on pricing

On Wednesday, Aceto (ACET) withdrew its guidance, citing the continued intense competitive and pricing pressures in the generic industry.

On Thursday, Novartis (NVS) reported that net sales at its generic unit Sandoz dropped 4% in the quarter.

Following both announcements, Wells Fargo analyst Davis #Maris told investors that he is not ready to call the bottom in generics pricing and sees a negative read-through for companies with large U.S. commodity generic exposure, such as Teva (TEVA) and Mylan (MYL).

Generic drug makers tumble on pricing, Stockwinners
Generic drug makers tumble on pricing, Stockwinners

GUIDANCE SUSPENSION, DIVIDEND REDUCTION

Last night, Aceto’s chairman Al Eilender said, “Given continued headwinds in the generics market, the Board has taken decisive action by bolstering the company’s senior leadership, engaging in proactive discussions with its secured lenders, and initiating a thorough evaluation of strategic alternatives.

” Strategic alternatives to be considered may include the sale of a key business segment, a merger or other business combination with another party, continuing as a standalone entity or other potential alternatives.

The company’s Board also anticipates a significant reduction of its dividend going forward and announced the appointment of Rebecca Roof as Interim CFO and the resignation of CFO Edward Borkowski, who has decided to pursue another opportunity.

Additionally, Aceto said that, in light of the persistent adverse conditions in the generics market, it is negotiating with its bank lenders a waiver of its credit agreement with respect to its total net leverage and debt service coverage financial covenants in the fiscal third quarter, and that the financial guidance issued on February 1, should no longer be relied upon.

The company also anticipates recording non-cash intangible asset impairment charges, including goodwill, in the range of $230M-$260M on certain currently marketed and pipeline generic products as a result of continued intense competitive and pricing pressures.

NOVARTIS RESULTS

This morning, Novartis reported first quarter core earnings per share of $1.28 and revenue of $12.69B, with consensus at $1.29 and $12.57B, respectively. The company also announced Sandoz net sales of $2.5B in the first quarter as 6 percentage points of price erosion, mainly in the U.S., were partly offset by volume growth of 2 percentage points. U.S. sales declined 18% mainly due to continued competitive pressure, the company added.

NEGATIVE READ-THROUGH

In a research note this morning, Wells Fargo’s Maris told investors that he thinks Aceto and Sandoz’s news show that the data continues to be negative for U.S. generic industry pricing. He sees a negative read-through for companies with large U.S. commodity generic exposure, such as Teva and Mylan.

Further, the analyst noted that he is not yet ready to call the bottom in generics pricing and believes those that have are “premature.”

WHAT’S NOTABLE

Citing a rapid degradation of the company’s asset-light business model in the wake of continued pressures for commoditized generics, Canaccord analyst Dewey Steadman downgraded Aceto two notches to Sell from Buy.

The company’s core human health business has been under significant pressure and has been unable to swiftly adapt to market conditions, he added. The analyst also lowered his price target on the shares to $2 from $10.

PRICE ACTION

In Thursday’s trading, shares of Aceto have plunged almost 62% to $2.85, while Novartis’ stock has dropped about 3% to $79.25. Also lower, shares of Teva and Mylan have slipped 2.5% and 0.25%, respectively.


STOCKWINNERS

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Goldman says sell Pepsi, buy Coca Cola

Goldman swaps sell call on Coca-Cola to PepsiCo on growth outlook

Goldman says sell Pepsi, buy Coca Cola, Stockwinners
Goldman says sell Pepsi, buy Coca Cola

In a research note to investors on the beverage space, Goldman Sachs analyst Judy #Hong upgraded Coca-Cola (KO) to Neutral and downgraded PepsiCo (PEP) to Sell.

While the analyst sees an improving organic sales growth outlook for Coca-Cola, Hong sees potential for continued softer North American Beverage volumes to weigh on PepsiCo’s organic sales growth.

BEVERAGE SPACE

Within the Staples sector, beverage valuations look most elevated, while food stocks appear oversold on consensus estimates, Goldman Sachs’ Hong told investors in a research note.

The analyst sees the beverage group’s premium valuation as mostly justified given industry characteristics that are more attractive versus secularly challenged U.S. center store food companies.

Goldman says sell Pepsi, buy Coca Cola, Stockwinners.com
Goldman says sell Pepsi, buy Coca Cola,

Beverages have more channel diversification and are less reliant on food grocers, beverage categories tend to have low level of private label penetration and a greater level of market/brand concentration also allows for higher pricing power, she contended.

Hong believes all these dynamics should drive higher top-line growth and more insulated margin structure for beverage companies compared to food companies in the U.S. over the next 12 months.

Additionally, the analyst pointed out that she sees “a few relevant trends” across the beverage theme playing out thus far in 2018, namely relative convenience store underperformance, comparative alcohol slowdown, and improvement in emerging markets benefiting multinationals, particularly in Latin America.

SWAPPING COCA-COLA, PEPSICO

Goldman Sachs’ Judy Hong upgraded Coca-Cola to Neutral from Sell, while trimming her price target on the shares to $46 from $47.

The analyst told investors that she sees an improving organic sales growth outlook, a “cleaner base” post-refranchising, and better visibility on its margin and earnings targets.

Hong believes Coca-Cola is “one of the rare” over 4% organic growth mega-cap stories, and now has increased confidence in its organic sales growth outlook.

Additionally, Hong noted that she now views fundamentals as warranting a relative premium given Coca-Cola’s positioning as a beneficiary of moderating foreign exchange impact, improving emerging markets growth, and higher margins post-refranchising.

Meanwhile, the analyst downgraded PepsiCo to Sell from Neutral and lowered her price target on the shares to $110 from $118, citing the potential for continued softer North American Beverage volumes to weigh on organic sales growth and present modest downside risk to gross margins.

While the analyst does not expect Pepsi shares to be “a material absolute underperformer,” she does see scope for it to underperform other beverage names over the next 12 months given muted fundamentals and lack of clear catalysts. Both top-line and margin gains are likely to be harder to come by for PepsiCo’s North America beverage business as multi-year tailwinds to volume are no longer driving growth while c-store underperformance is creating a drag, she contended.

OTHERS TO WATCH

Goldman’s Hong also upgraded Coca-Cola European Partners (CCE) to Buy, as she believes muted sentiment in the context of sugar tax implementation in the UK and France provides a compelling opportunity, and downgraded Molson Coors (TAP) to Neutral, predicting that weaker than expected beer volumes will drive cuts to consensus estimates. The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on Monster Beverage (MNST).

PRICE ACTION

In Tuesday’s trading, shares of Coca-Cola are fractionally up to $44.79, while PepsiCo’s stock dropped over 1% to $108.41.


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Stitch Fix shares could unravel at the seam

Stitch Fix drops after earnings,  analyst sees lock-up bringing pressure

Stitch Fix drops after earnings. Stockwinners.com
Stitch Fix drops after earnings

Shares of Stitch Fix (SFIX) dropped in Tuesday morning trading following the company’s quarterly earnings report.

The personal shopping and clothing provider saw revenue come in above the Wall Street consensus and posted a 31% year-over-year increase in active clients.

Following the earnings report, an analyst at JPMorgan estimated that about 31M shares will be released from lock-up on Wednesday, which could create near-term weakness.

EARNINGS AND GUIDANCE

After the market close on Monday, Stitch Fix reported second quarter adjusted earnings per share of 7c, slightly exceeding analysts’ 6c consensus, though its EPS including items was 2c. Revenue for the quarter of $295.5M beat the $291.24M consensus and Stitch Fix said it grew active clients to 2.5M, an increase of 588,000 and 31% year-over-year.

Looking ahead, Stitch Fix forecast third quarter revenue of $300M-$310M, at the high end of analysts’ $300.29M consensus, and fiscal 2018 revenue of $1.19B-$1.22B, against the Street consensus of $1.2B.

On its quarterly earnings conference call, Stitch Fix said its net revenue per active client for the 12 months ended January 27 was $437, a decrease of 3.9% vs. last year.

The company commented, “This decline was primarily driven by our continued and growing strategic expansion into Men’s and lower price point merchandise. Although our male clients on average have a lower purchase frequency, which dilutes our overall net revenue per active client, we continue to be pleased with the revenue contribution and profitable unit economics of the Men’s category.

Similarly, we’ve been encouraged by our ability to serve lower price point clients effectively and plan to further penetrate this market.”

WHAT’S NOTABLE

Stitch Fix’s quarterly earnings report was its second as a public company.

The company’s IPO in November was overshadowed by the disappointing IPO of another subscription service, Blue Apron (APRN), as well as a threat from Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Wardrobe and Nordstrom’s (JWN) Trunk Club.

Stitch Fix, which debuted at $15 per share, has seen its shares gain over 50% since November.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

In a research note to investors, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth estimated that about 31M Stitch Fix shares will be released from lock-up before the market open on Wednesday, March 14, which could create near-term weakness.

#Anmuth explained that Stitch Fix’s IPO held a price-triggered lock-up agreement where 35% of the locked-up shares become eligible for release beginning 90 days after the IPO if certain criteria are met, including shares closing 25% or more above the IPO price on 10 out of 15 consecutive trading days and if the company is not in its trading black-out period.

The analyst noted that Stitch Fix qualified for the price and reporting threshold last month, but since this occurred during its black-out period, shares do not qualify for release until one day post-earnings.

While Anmuth remains confident in Stitch Fix’s market opportunity and ability to stabilize growth, he thinks growth will become more challenging as the company has passed the period of heavy viral growth and margin compression is likely through fiscal 2019.

The analyst has a Neutral rating and $26 price target.

PRICE ACTION

Shares of Stitch Fix are down 2% to $24 in Tuesday’s trading.


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GlycoMimetics tumbles after announcing Phase 3 trial design

GlycoMimetics tumbles after announcing Phase 3 trial design for GMI-1271 in myeloid leukemia patients

 

GlycoMimetics tumbles, Stockwinners.com
GlycoMimetics announces new Phase 3 for GMI-1271

Earlier, GlycoMimetics announced its design for a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate GMI-1271 in combination with MEC or in combination with FAI in individuals with relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia.

The design is aligned with guidance received from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The single pivotal trial is planned to enroll 380 adult patients worldwide and is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2018.

The primary endpoint will be overall survival, and censoring for transplant in the primary efficacy analysis will not be required. Key secondary endpoints will include incidence of severe mucositis and remission rate, which will be assessed in a hierarchical fashion for potential inclusion in the product labeling, if GMI-1271 is approved by the FDA. In 2017, GMI-1271 received Breakthrough Therapy Designation.

“Reaching alignment with the FDA on overall survival as the primary endpoint for the trial, without statistical censoring for transplant, positions GMI-1271 well for a potential successful outcome,” said Rachel King, Chief Executive Officer of GlycoMimetics.

“Getting more patients to transplant following treatment with GMI-1271 is one of our goals for this therapy. If we accomplish this, we hope GMI-1271 will contribute to prolonged overall survival for relapsed/refractory AML patients. We believe this is a rigorously designed Phase 3 trial that has the potential to bring us one step closer to meeting the significant unmet needs of this patient population.

In addition, we believe that our trial design should streamline the path to data on overall survival, considered the ‘gold standard’ of clinical benefit, and that if this primary endpoint is achieved, it should position GMI-1271 optimally with U.S. and European regulatory agencies, as well as in the marketplace.”

“Our development strategy now sets us up for multiple, value-creating clinical data readouts, the first of which is topline data from the ongoing Phase 3 trial of rivipansel in sickle cell disease in the second half of 2018,” Ms. King added.

“In early 2019, we anticipate topline data from our proof-of-concept trial of GMI-1271 in multiple myeloma, and now, by the end of 2020, we expect to have topline data from our pivotal trial of GMI-1271 in patients with relapsed/refractory AML.”

PRICE  ACTION

GLYC closed at $22.82. In after hours trading it traded at $18.55.


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FDA rejects Celgene’s application for ozanimod

Celgene receives Refusal to File letter from FDA regarding ozanimod NDA

Celgene tumbles
FDA rejects Celgene’s application for ozanimod

Celgene Corporation (CELG) announced that it has received a Refusal to File letter from the United States Food and Drug Administration regarding its New Drug Application for ozanimod in development for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.

Ozanimod is a novel, oral, selective sphingosine 1-phosphate 1 and 5 receptor modulator. Upon its preliminary review, the FDA determined that the nonclinical and clinical pharmacology sections in the NDA were insufficient to permit a complete review.

Celgene intends to seek immediate guidance, including requesting a Type A meeting with the FDA, to ascertain what additional information will be required to resubmit the NDA.

ANALYSTS  REACTION

UBS analyst Carter Gould noted Celgene disclosed the FDA issued a Refusal to File regarding the NDA for ozanimod in multiple sclerosis.

He believes this will likely delay its approval until at least 2019 and raise another round of questions on Celgene’s execution as the last six months have brought clinical, regulatory, and commercial setbacks. Gould maintained his Buy rating, but lowered his price target to $106 from $120.

SunTrust analyst Yatin Suneja downgraded Celgene to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target to $106 from $139. Suneja cites the FDA refusal letter on ozanimod for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis after its determination that the nonclinical and clinical pharmacology sections in the NDA were “insufficient” to permit a complete review.

The analyst says ozanimod was “central to our bull thesis to re-accelerate growth in the I&I franchise”, lowering his projected peak sales estimate for the treatment to $3.5B from $5.0B following this latest setback.

Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond says Celgene’s diversification story “takes another hit” following receipt of a refusal to file letter from FDA for ozanimod’s multiple sclerosis new drug application submission.

 

Investors may now have to contemplate a multiple sclerosis launch that potentially coincides with Gilenya’s loss of exclusivity “unless a more aggressive timetable can somehow be salvaged,” Raymond tells investors in a research note. The analyst cut his estimates for ozanimod “dramatically” and prefers to remain on the sidelines with respect to Celgene shares. He keeps a Neutral rating on the name with a $95 price target.

PRICE  ACTION

CELG is  down over 6.5% to $89.50 in pre-market trading.

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Gun stocks fall as pressure mounts on NRA

Gun stocks fall as corporate pressure mounts on NRA

Gun stocks fall as pressure mounts on NRA. Stockwinners.com
Gun stocks fall as pressure mounts on NRA – AR15

The National Rifle Association, or #NRA, an American organization that advocates for gun rights, is seeing public pressure mount from corporations that it has partnered with in the wake of the Parkland, Florida school shooting, which resulted in 17 deaths.

PARTNERSHIPS DROPPED

The nation’s largest privately owned bank, First National Bank of Omaha, said on Thursday that it will not renew its contract with the NRA for a branded Visa card.

A spokesman for the bank said in a statement, “Customer feedback has caused us to review our relationship with the NRA. As a result, First National Bank of Omaha will not renew its contract with the National Rifle Association to issue the NRA Visa Card.”

Additionally on Thursday, privately held Enterprise Holdings, which owns the Enterprise, Alamo, and National car rental brands, said it will end its partnership with the NRA — which gave NRA members discounts — next month.

FORMER PARTNERS DISTANCING THEMSELVES

Hotel companies Best Western and Wyndham Hotels, which were previously targeted for boycotts following the Newton, Connecticut elementary school shooting in 2012, have posted dozens of tweets each, letting customers know they are no longer affiliated with the NRA.

Wyndham tweeted repeatedly, “Please know, Wyndham is no longer affiliated with the NRA,” while Best Western tweeted a similar message, “Best Western Hotels & Resorts does not have an affiliation with and is not a partner of the National Rifle Association.”

MORE PARTNERSHIPS DROPPED

Over the course of the day, more companies joined the growing chorus, including Hertz (HTZ), which ended its rental car discount program with the NRA, Symantec (SYMC), which stopped its discount program with the NRA, Metlife (MET), which ended its insurance discount program with the NRA, and Chubb (CB), which will stop underwriting a NRA-branded insurance policy for gun owners.

PRICE ACTION

Publicly traded gunmakers are down in Friday’s trading on a day the broader markets are rising. American Outdoor Brands Corp (AOBC), formerly known as Smith & Wesson, is down 5.5% to $9.56, while Sturm Ruger & Company (RGR) is down 3.67% to $47.20.


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Lionsgate slides on downgrade

Lionsgate slides as analyst cuts rating on competitive, cost concerns

Lionsgate falls on downgrade. Stockwinners.com
Lionsgate falls on downgrade.

Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger downgraded Lionsgate (LGF.B) to Market Perform this morning, putting some pressure on the shares.

The analyst argued that competitive investment from rival premium and Subscription Video On Demand, or SVOD, services has gotten much more intense, while also pointing to increased programming investment at Starz.

MOVING TO THE SIDELINES

In a research note this morning, Bernstein’s Juenger downgraded Lionsgate to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered his price target on Class B shares to $30 from $35.

The analyst told investors that he believes competitive investment from rival premium and SVOD services has gotten much more intense, and noted that increased programming investment at Starz is a necessary but recurring cost of doing business, which means the normalized growth rate for Starz has to be lower.

#Juenger added that while Lionsgate likes to tell investors they offer higher-than-average growth at lower-than-average risk, he sees, at best, average growth, with higher-than-average risk.

Further, M&A is always possible, but if discussions were on-going or imminent, the company would not choose to increase investment, lower guidance, and reinstate a dividend, the analyst contended.

NEAR-TERM UPSIDE MUTED

Last week, Barrington analyst James Goss lowered his price target for Lionsgate to $34 from $40, while reiterating an Outperform rating on the stock.

The analyst noted that with the company’s repositioning its film slate under new leadership, and increasing its investment in programming for Starz, Lionsgate sees more muted growth in 2019, with a significant ramp in 2020. While Goss expects near-term upside to be muted, he believes the Starz service will be a more attractive offering in the “shifting media landscape,” which should provide further opportunities for long-term growth.

INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION

According to a report by CNBC earlier this month, Comcast (CMCSA) could consider topping Disney’s (DIS) bid for 21st Century Fox (FOXA) if regulators approve AT&T’s (T) acquisition of Time Warner (TWX).

While no decision has been made by Comcast, Disney is already considering responses in case Comcast makes a run at Fox, the report added.

On December 14, Disney and 21st Century Fox announced they had entered into a definitive pact under which Disney will acquire 21st Century Fox, including the company’s Film and Television studios, along with cable and international TV businesses, for approximately $52.4B in stock.

As part of the deal, Fox will spin off Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News, Fox Business, FS1, FS2, and Big Ten Network to its shareholders.

PRICE ACTION

In Wednesday’s trading, Class B shares of Lionsgate had dropped over 1% to $26.90.


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Sarepta drops after U.K. trial halt

Sarepta drops after U.K. trial halt, but analysts unconcerned

Sarepta drops after U.K. trial halt,
Sarepta drops after U.K. trial halt,

Shares of Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) dropped in morning trading following a report that said that the company had halted treatment at sites in the United Kingdom testing its Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug golodirsen due to “one serious adverse event” that could be related to the drug.

TRIAL HALT

According to news analysis service EP Vantage, Sarepta has temporarily halted treatment at U.K. sites in a clinical trial of golodirsen, an investigational therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy in boys with the gene that is amenable for skipping Exon 53, following “one serious adverse event that could possibly be related to the investigational drug product.”

EP Vantage said it learned of the halt after seeing posts on Facebook from a parent of a child enrolled in the trial.

According to the parent, the trial was halted due to an occurrence of rhabdomyolysis, a condition in which damaged skeletal muscle tissue breaks down rapidly.

Sarepta confirmed that the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, or MHRA, ordered dosing to be halted at its four centers in the U.K. because of “U.K.-specific stopping rules,” and added that safety data from all patients in the ESSENCE study have been reviewed by an independent monitoring committee, which deemed that dosing could continue for all subjects.

PATIENT RESTARTED WITH NO FURTHER ISSUES

STAT’s Adam Feuerstein tweeted this morning that “Only thing I’d add, based on my calls, is that the patient re-started golodirsen in the study w/ no further problems.”

He added that “Folks calling out $SRPT CEO Doug Ingram for lack of transparency after he ripped $SLDB for same. Valid criticism.”

According to reports, Solid Biosciences (SLDB) failed to disclose some negative issues related to its work on its own DMD treatment.

In its IPO filing, Solid said testing of SGT-001 had been partially suspended since November. While the partial clinical hold has kept Solid from administering a high dose of the gene therapy, it is permitted to continue testing a lower dose.

WHAT’S NOTABLE

In September, Sarepta said that in a Phase 1/2 trial in Europe that enrolled 25 boys with DMD, there was a 100% response rate with golodirsen “demonstrating proof of mechanism.”

ANALYSTS DOWNPLAY ISSUE

JPMorgan analyst Anupam Rama kept an Overweight rating on Sarepta and said downside in shares this morning is overdone as he does not view the update on the company’s ESSENCE trial as a major setback, noting the safety board has suggested the study can continue recruitment.

Piper Jaffray analyst Edward Tenthoff reiterated an Overweight rating and $60 price target on Sarepta, and said he is awaiting further clarity on the trial halt before making adjustments.

He sees Exondys51 sales of $152M in 2017, at the high end of the $150M-$155M guidance.

PRICE ACTION

In Friday’s trading, shares of Sarepta Therapeutics are down over 8% to $52.50.


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Lululemon CEO resigns over misconduct accusations

lululemon CEO Potdevin resigns over misconduct accusations 

Lululemon CEO resigns over misconduct accusations. Stockwinners.com
Lululemon CEO resigns over misconduct accusations

Shares of lululemon athletica (LULU) are in focus after the company announced the resignation of chief executive officer Laurent Potdevin for “conduct” issues.

CEO RESIGNATION

lululemon announced yesterday that Laurent Potdevin has resigned as CEO and member of the board of directors, effective immediately. Potdevin had served as CEO since January 2014.

lululemon expects all employees to exemplify the highest levels of integrity and respect for one another, and Potdevin “fell short of these standards of conduct,” the company said, adding that the board has begun a search for a new CEO.

“While this was a difficult and considered decision, the Board thanks Laurent for his work in strengthening the company and positioning it for the future,” said Glenn Murphy, executive chairman.

“Culture is at the core of lululemon, and it is the responsibility of leaders to set the right tone in our organization. Protecting the organization’s culture is one of the Board’s most important duties.”

Lululemon has promoted three members of its management team — Celeste Burgoyne, Stuart Haselden and Sun Choe — to oversee more day-to-day operations, marketing, e-commerce growth, product innovation and supply chain enhancements.

According to a Bloomberg report, Potdevin’s resignation was over misconduct that spanned a range of incidents involving multiple individuals. The misconduct was not related to finances or operations, the report noted.

GUIDANCE REAFFIRMED

In the wake of Potdevin’s resignation, lululemon looked to reassure investors by backing its fourth quarter guidance of earnings per share between $1.25-$1.27 and revenue of $905M-$915M, which compares to analysts’ estimates of $1.27 and $911.67M, respectively.

In addition, the company’s growth strategies remain on track to achieve $4B in revenue in 2020.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

Following the announcement, Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said the level of management turnover at lululemon during “this critical juncture in the company’s growth trajectory gives us some pause.”

The analyst sees better opportunities elsewhere given lululemon’s “high” valuation and “less plentiful” margin opportunity. He maintained a Hold rating on lululemon with a $72 price target.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell said that while he finds the circumstances of Potdevin’s resignation unfortunate, he has confidence in the remainder of lululemon’s management team, particularly Glenn Murphy.

The analyst recommended using any pullback in the shares as a buying opportunity and reiterated a Buy rating with a $95 price target. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez said he views the resignation as more of a positive for lululemon.

It presents the company with an opportunity to bring in a seasoned executive to take lululemon “to the next level,” the analyst said.

Lejeuz kept a Neutral rating on the shares with an $88 price target.

Additionally, KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma said he views the departure negatively, and notes it comes after creative director Lee Holman’s departed in November.

The analyst believes Potdevin has been an integral part of the company’s stabilized performance in recent quarters.

Canaccord analyst Camilo Lyon said he does not see the departure as a major setback, but notes there is a level of uncertainty until the position is filled. Lyon reiterated his Hold rating and $75 price target.

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger said it is likely that investors will speculate the top two contenders for the job are Murphy, executive chairman and ex-CEO of The Gap (GPS), and Stefan Larsson, the ex-CEO Ralph Lauren (RL). If lululemon picks either, Greenberger would expect the stock to react positively.

The analyst kept an Equal Weight rating and $73 price target on lululemon.

PRICE ACTION

lululemon is down 0.75% to $76.85.


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Chipotle drops on downgrade

Analyst says sell Chipotle amid ‘depressed’ brand perceptions, more competition

Chipotle Mexican Grill spokesman Chris Arnold says the company is aware of a "small number" of illnesses linked to a store in Sterling, Virginia
Chipotle drops on downgrade

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) dropped in Thursday’s trading after a UBS analyst said to sell the stock, telling investors that brand perceptions “remain depressed” while competition is unlikely to ease this year.

SELL CHIPOTLE

UBS analyst Dennis #Geiger downgraded Chipotle to Sell from Neutral, saying he is “concerned” about deteriorating online customer review trends and possible implications for the trajectory of sales.

The analyst, who cut his price target to $290 from $345, noted that online review trends have continued to trend downward and have dropped below pre-food safety crisis lows.

He contended that “Despite aggressive efforts to improve brand perceptions through a new national advertising campaign and the launch of new products including queso recently, customer review scores have not shown any signs of improvement.”

Additionally, Geiger told clients that in addition to “depressed” brand perceptions, competition is unlikely to ease in 2018 and said Chipotle’s unit development expectations could be “ambitious.”

His analysis of more than 230,000 Chipotle reviews found that food safety, combined with rising competition, has likely weighed on Chipotle’s efforts to regain customers.

“The increasing penetration of fast casual brands and traditional quick service restaurants has likely weighed on Chipotle’s efforts to regain lost customers. In the aftermath of the Chipotle food safety incidents, our survey analysis indicated ‘like other QSR better’ as the second most cited reason for eating less at Chipotle,” Geiger said.

WHAT’S NOTABLE

Chipotle has faced several foodborne illness outbreaks since 2015. As recently as December 2017, public health officials in Los Angeles investigated a possible foodborne illness outbreak at a local Chipotle restaurant.

Chipotle confirmed that it was aware of the reports tied to its Pico Boulevard location, but said it had not heard from any customers directly. “As a precautionary measure, we have implemented heightened sanitization measures at this restaurant, which we do as a matter of policy if ever we receive reports of illness — even if they are not substantiated,” Chipotle spokesman Chris Arnold said at the time.

The company’s executive ranks have also been in turmoil, with the company searching for a new chief executive officer.

When a new CEO is appointed, current CEO and founder Steve Ells said he will focus primarily on innovation. In December, an analyst at Bernstein called Chipotle a “reasonably” attractive takeover target.

PRICE ACTION

In Thursday morning trading, shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill are down 4.3% to $310.92.


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Bed Bath & Beyond tumbles on competition

Bed Bath & Beyond sinks after analyst says sell with competition rising

Bed Bath & Beyond tumbles on competition. Stockwinners.com
Bed Bath & Beyond tumbles on competition

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) dropped in Friday morning trading after an analyst downgraded the stock to his firm’s equivalent of a Sell rating, citing concerns over the growth and margin outlook relative to peers.

ANALYST TURNS BEARISH

JPMorgan analyst Christopher #Horvers downgraded Bed Bath & Beyond to Underweight, his firm’s equivalent of a Sell rating, and cut his price target for the shares to $18 from $21.

In a note to clients titled “If you can’t comp positively now…”, Horvers noted that the stock has run up 16% since the House passed the tax bill in November, and recent estimate revisions suggest the Street is assuming 50% flow through of tax savings.

He believes this could prove “aggressive” considering the increased competition in the home furnishings space and Bed Bath & Beyond’s need to invest in advertising, price and infrastructure.

Horvers doesn’t see a turn “in sight” for the company’s comps given that the retailer was unable to post positive same-store sales during the critical holiday season despite a “robust” consumer backdrop.

Bed Bath & Beyond posted a 0.3% decline in SSS last quarter despite including November, “which was arguably the best month of the year for retailers.”

Additionally, the analyst noted that his work indicates that trends have slowed sequentially quarter-to-date, in contrast to a string of positive pre-announcements from retailers. He sees margin pressure getting worse before getting better and believes that sales may take longer to rebound.

COMPETITORS

Bed Bath & Beyond competes with offerings from Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT), as well as companies including Kohl’s (KSS), Overstock (OSTK) and Wayfair (W).

Earlier this month, Loop Capital said Amazon has become “more aggressive” in its pricing strategy, and that in a study across a basket of 50 items for both companies, Bed Bath & Beyond prices were on average 19.8% more expensive than Amazon.

Target recently said that its comparable sales in the combined November/December period grew 3.4%, which was better than the company previously said that it expected, and Target raised its FY17 earnings view.

Kohl’s, meanwhile, said that its total and comparable sales for the November and December combined period were up 6.9% over last year.

Kohl’s Chief Executive Officer Kevin Mansell noted that “All lines of business and all regions reported positive comp sales” for the critical holiday period.

In December, Bed Bath & Beyond beat analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom line and backed its FY17 adjusted EPS view.

The company forecast FY17 revenue flat to slightly positive and SSS down in the low single-digit percentage range.

PRICE ACTION

Bed Bath & Beyond is down about 6% in morning trading to $21.70.


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