Celgene sells its Otezla to Amgen for $13.4 billion

Amgen to acquire Otezla from Celgene for $13.4B in cash

Amgen (AMGN) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Celgene (CELG) in connection with its previously announced merger with Bristol-Myers (BMY) to acquire worldwide rights to Otezla, “the only oral, non-biologic treatment for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis,” and certain related assets and liabilities, for $13.4B in cash, or approximately $11.2B, net of the present value of $2.2B in anticipated future cash tax benefits.

Bristol Meyers Comments on Celgene purchase, Stockwinners
Celgene sells Otezla to pave the way for its merger with Bristol-Meyers, Stockwinners

Otezla (apremilast) is a prescription medicine approved for the treatment of patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis for whom phototherapy or systemic therapy is appropriate. Otezla is a prescription medicine approved for the treatment of adult patients with active psoriatic arthritis. Otezla is a prescription medicine approved for the treatment of adult patients with oral ulcers associated with Behçet’s Disease.

Amgen goes shopping, Stockwinners

Amgen believes that the acquisition of Otezla offers many benefits including: A strong strategic fit with Amgen’s long-standing expertise in psoriasis and inflammation; A differentiated, oral therapy complementary to Amgen’s existing inflammation franchise of innovative biologics and biosimilar products; At least low double-digit Otezla sales growth, on average, over the next five years; Acceleration of Amgen’s near- and long-term revenue growth; Immediate non-GAAP EPS accretion; Intellectual Property exclusivity through at least 2028 in the U.S.; Worldwide rights which fit well with Amgen’s international presence and global expansion objectives; Support of increased R&D investment in 2020 to advance Amgen’s innovative pipeline of first-in-class molecules; No interruption in deployment of Amgen’s capital allocation priorities. Sales of Otezla in 2018 were $1.6B driven by strong volume growth.

Bristol-Myers treatment for colorectal cancer approved, Stockwinners
Bristol-Myers is in the process of buying Celgene, Stockwinners

The closing of the acquisition is contingent on Bristol-Myers entering into a consent decree with the Federal Trade Commission in connection with the pending Celgene merger, the closing of the pending merger with Celgene and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.

The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2019.

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Tesla crashes after latest report

Model Y to become available in the U.S. in Fall 2020

Model 3 to become available in China in Fall 2020

Tesla (TSLA) shares are sharply lower in Thursday’s trading after the electric car maker posted a loss that surprised investors.

Tesla (TSLA) reported a 2nd Quarter June 2019 loss of $1.12 per share on revenue of $6.3 billion. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion. Revenue grew 58.7% on a year-over-year basis.

https://stockwinners.com/blog/
Tesla shares tumble following its results, Stockwinners

The company said in it continues to expect positive GAAP earnings in the third quarter. The current consensus estimate is earnings of $0.27 per share for the quarter ending September 30, 2019. Tesla reported 95,356 vehicle deliveries in Q2 and production of 87,048 vehicles in Q2.

Tesla CEO says Model Y production ramp will be ‘significantly faster’ – Musk cites parts compatibility of the company’s existing models. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in the company’s Q2 update letter, “This quarter, we are simplifying our approach to guidance. We are most focused on expanding our manufacturing footprint in new regions, launching new products and continuing to improve the customer experience, while generating and using cash sustainably. Local production and improved utilization of existing factories is essential to be cost competitive in each region.

Tesla Model 3 named Popular Mechanics' Car of the Year
Tesla Model 3 to become available in China, Stockwinners

We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020. We are also accelerating our European Gigafactory efforts and are hoping to finalize a location choice in the coming quarters. We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year. Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding. We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus. Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5B-$2.0B, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.”

TSLA shares are down $36.90 to $228.50

Model Y to become available Fall 2020, Stockwinners

ANALYSTS’ COMMENTS

Barclays

Neither revenues nor earnings were “anywhere near a record” in Tesla’s Q2 results, which “calls into question the growth story,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Tesla’s loss in Q2 “should mark the top of the current ‘swing trade.'”

The results should temper bullish expectations for profit leverage, says Johnson, who reiterates an Underweight rating on the shares with a $150 price target.

Canaccord

Canaccord analyst Jed Dorsheimer lowered his price target on Tesla to $350 from $394 following Q2 results that were roughly inline with his expectations.

The analyst said its free cash flow suggests the company has a bit more time to grow into its profitability expectations. Dorsheimer maintained his Buy rating on Tesla shares.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy notes that Tesla posted a Q2 EPS miss. Broadly, while Tesla has maintained its narrative, the analyst expects the stock to be under pressure near-term, as expectations had risen post the Q2 deliveries release earlier this month. Levy reiterates an Underperform rating and $189 price target on the shares as the Q2 results reminded him of the challenges ahead for Tesla in gross margin, especially as it relates to Models S/X. While Tesla has maintained its delivery guidance, he believes the company will be challenged to meet it given challenges to S/X volumes and the phase-out of the U.S. EV tax credit.

Model S interior, Stockwinners

Jefferies

Tesla last night reported a “challenging set of numbers,” although its pre-restructuring loss was in line with consensus estimates and its free cash flow better with a $600M operating inflow, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois tells investors in a research note titled “Q2 Challenging but Still Encouraging.”

Tesla’s vehicle gross margin improved but remains low for sustainable profitability at this stage, adds the analyst. Further, he believes e. JB Straubel moving to an advisory position adds to fears of “executive fatigue.” Houchois keeps a Buy rating on Tesla with a $300 price target.

JMP Securities

JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha lowered his price target on Tesla to $337 after its Q2 results, saying the company’s revenue was “solid” but gross margins disappointed even in the absence of reduced regulatory credits.

The analyst adds that the output of 87K cars was below capacity, which is a positive because of “low utilization” of its Model S and X, but notes that the “fixed-cost asset under-absorption” suggests the company is struggling with reducing Model 3 costs as expected.

Morgan Stanley

Following Tesla’s analyst call, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas shares his key thoughts, including his view that JB Straubel giving up the Chief Technical Officer role “may be the biggest news of the quarter.” It is unclear what motivated the 15-year veteran of the company to give up direct operational responsibility, but, “unfortunately, nobody asked this on the call,” Jonas said.

Elon Musk said that Q4 will be “very strong, but said the first and second quarters of 2020 will be “tough,” noted Jonas, who thinks investors should be ready for more quarter-to-quarter sales volatility heading into 2020. He keeps an Equal Weight rating and $230 price target on Tesla shares.

Model X sales slow down, Stockwinners

Needham

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill kept his Underperform rating on Tesla after its “significant” loss reported in Q2 along with a “slight” increase in its margins hurt by average selling price reductions across all of its vehicle models. The analyst notes that while the company affirmed its FY19 delivery target and forecast profitability in Q4, he is cautious on that outlook as it would require a “significant snapback” in the second half of the year. Gill sees Tesla remaining challenged by “structurally low margins” and growing competition.

Nomura Instinet

Nomura Instinet analyst Christopher Eberle lowered his price target for Tesla to $270 from $300 following last night’s “mixed” Q2 results. Deliveries exceeded initial expectations meaningfully, but profitability metrics “underwhelmed,” Eberle tells investors in a post-earnings research titled “Spinning Its Wheels.”

The analyst doubts the quarter “will inspire enough confidence to get the stock working.” As such, he keeps a Neutral rating on Tesla.

Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch lowered his price target for Tesla to $356 from $437, noting that while automotive revenue and full company free cash flow beat expectations, full company revenue, gross margin and EPS results were below, driven partially by Model S/X ASP declines.

The analyst believes this dynamic will fuel bearish investors focused on limited demand for Tesla products, but believes bulls will focus on strong volumes, stable Model 3 ASP and better than expected cash flow as the company appears to be getting increasingly efficient with its spending. Rusch has an Outperform rating on the shares.

Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter reiterates an Overweight rating on Tesla following last night’s Q2 results while lowering his price target for the shares to $386 from $396.

Forward looking metrics related to revenue, such as orders and deliveries, are “all trending in the right direction – and that’s probably the most important thing,”

Potter tells investors in a research note. The post-market selloff was driven initially by mix-related concerns, and the resulting pressure on gross margin, but then Tesla’s Chief Technology Officer subsequently resigned on the earnings call, and the selling pressure intensified, explains Potter. He believes today’s pullback provides an entry point into Tesla shares.

Roth Capital

Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin lowered his price target for Tesla to $224 form $238 after the company posted weak Q2 EPS, with automotive margins marking the lowest levels since Q1 of 2018. The analyst reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives lowered his price target for Tesla to $220 from $230 to reflect a softer margin profile and pushed out profitability looking ahead. The analyst notes that the company delivered some bad news that will weigh on shares on Thursday as the company significantly missed the Street on the bottom line with “disappointing” gross margins that fundamentally call into question its ability to show sustainable profitability on the heels of lower margin Model 3 units going forward. Ives reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares.

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Tenet to spin off its Conifer Health

Tenet concludes Conifer strategic review, to complete spin-off by end of 2Q21

Tenet Healthcare (THC) announced its intention to pursue a tax-free spin-off of its Conifer business as a separate, independent publicly traded company.

Tenet to spinoff Conifer Health in a tax free transaction, Stockwinners

The company expects to complete the spin-off by the end of the second quarter of 2021.

This announcement is the culmination of the Conifer strategic review process announced in December 2017.

Ronald A. Rittenmeyer, Executive Chairman and CEO, said, “After an extensive review of Conifer’s strategic alternatives, in which we evaluated multiple options for the business while simultaneously driving significant and sustainable improvements in performance, we are pleased to announce plans to spin off Conifer into a separate, publicly traded company.

This decision supports our longstanding objectives to maximize the value of Conifer, build on its strong growth potential and deliver the best outcome for Conifer and for Tenet shareholders.” Rittenmeyer continued, “Conifer has unmatched experience and scale in offering revenue cycle management solutions for healthcare providers and a proven track record of delivering high-touch, high-value services to clients.

Tenet to spin off Conifer Health, Stockwinners

Pursuing a tax-free spin-off is an important step forward in Conifer’s evolution, and we believe the business is well-positioned to capitalize on its growth opportunities as a standalone company.”

Rittenmeyer added, “We were pleased with Tenet’s performance in the second quarter, with Adjusted EBITDA comfortably within our Outlook range and consistent with consensus estimates.

Volume growth strengthened in our hospital business, with increases in both admissions and adjusted admissions. USPI also delivered favorable volume growth and Conifer had another strong quarter.

We remain excited about the future of our healthcare services offerings at our 65 hospitals and approximately 500 outpatient centers which will remain part of the Tenet enterprise.”

The separation process will include a thorough review of the necessary executive leadership changes, Board membership needs and key commercial milestones that Conifer must achieve in order to provide the optimal governance structures and business foundations for a successful public company.

Specific details about these actions and milestones will be made available in due course.

Among other things, the spin-off will be subject to finalization of the entity structure of the spun-off business, assurance that the separation will be tax-free to Tenet’s shareholders for U.S. federal income tax purposes, executing a restructured services agreement between Conifer and Tenet, finalization of Conifer’s capital structure, the effectiveness of appropriate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, final approval from the Tenet Board of Directors, and other customary conditions.

The spin-off will not require a vote by Tenet shareholders and is supported by Common Spirit which owns a minority interest in Conifer Health Solutions, LLC.

The transaction is being targeted for completion by the end of the second quarter of 2021, but there can be no assurance regarding the timeframe for completing the spin-off, the allocation of assets and liabilities between Tenet and Conifer, or that the spin-off will be completed at all.

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Netflix, a battle of bulls and bears!

Netflix lost more than $18 billion in market capitalization in 2 days

Disney loss having minimal impact on Netflix subscribers. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more
Netflix subscribers grew less than expected. Stockwinners

On Wednesday, Netflix (NFLX) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $0.60 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.56 per share on revenue of $4.9 billion. Revenue grew 26.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said in its shareholders letter it expects third quarter earnings of approximately $1.04 per share on revenue of approximately $5.25 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2019.

Bears vs Bulls, Stockwinners

The company saw its first loss in US subscribers last quarter, and a 2.7 million paid customers added globally, nearly half of what was forecast.

Competition

At the same time, the company is facing a steeper path than ever in the United States. Netflix lost subscribers this quarter for the first time in years, a combination of the price hike and a content loss. As the US market becomes oversaturated with streaming services — with WarnerMedia, Disney, and Apple all launching streaming services — the only way to ensure growth is going outside the United States. Netflix currently has 60 million paying domestic subscribers, and company believes they can get to 90 million, but the risk of market saturation is real, and raises difficult questions for the company’s content strategy.

BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon lowered his price target on Netflix (NFLX) to $440 after its reported shortfall on subscriber addition in Q2, which he expects to “fuel the debate” about the company’s pricing power and the role of new content. Given the sequential decline in its U.S. markets and the approaching launch of Disney+ (DIS), the analyst contends that this may be a “more than just the usual” earnings-miss driven debate. Longer term however, Salmon believes that the company’s revenue trend remains on track, keeping his Outperform rating on the stock and recommending Netflix, Amazon (AMZN), and Disney as a “collective investment” in the global streaming race.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Douglas Mitchelson lowered his price target for Netflix to $440 from $450 after the company posted its worst subscriber miss ever, short by 2.3M net adds, while revenue was in line and EBIT well ahead. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.

Disney to end Netflix distribution agreement in 2019. See Stockwinners.com Market Radar for details
Disney ended Netflix distribution agreement this year. See Stockwinners.com

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft views post-earnings selloff in shares of Netflix as a buying opportunity. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the streaming service.

KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst Andy Hargreaves says that despite soft Q2 results, he believes Netflix retains competitive advantages that should support excellent revenue and profit growth well into the future. The likely decline in the stock price improves the risk/reward, but increased confidence in the potential for upside to his estimates is likely needed for a more positive view of the shares, he contends. Hargreaves reiterates a Sector Weight rating on the shares.

WarnerMedia streaming service hurts Netflix, Stockwinners

JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth to $425 from $450 while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The Q2 net adds miss was meaningful, but the company’s Q2 results are often volatile and this quarter contained a number of moving pieces, Anmuth tells investors in a research note. Netflix’s back half of the year content slate is strong and the company is seeing significantly better trends quarter-to-date, adds the analyst. History suggests that Q2 is a “difficult quarter from which to extrapolate NFLX’s trajectory,” says Anmuth.

Stifel

Stifel analyst Scott Devitt said Netflix shares may be range bound until the company reports Q3 earnings following its miss in Q2 on its domestic and international paid net sub add guidance. He believes management’s explanations for the current quarter miss “appear reasonable,” though Netflix “will have to prove, as it has done many times, that its value proposition remains one of the best,” Devitt tells investors in a post-earnings research note. Following last night’s report, Devitt lowered his price target on Netflix shares to $400 from $425 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter raised his price target for Netflix to $188 from $183, while reiterating an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported quarterly results. The analyst expects content spending to trigger substantial cash burn for many years, and notwithstanding four Netflix price increases in the last five years, he notes that cash burn continues to grow. Content migration and price hikes could cause a deceleration in subscriber growth, and consistently negative free cash flow makes DCF valuation impossible, he adds.

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Ford launches new business model in Europe

Ford to cut 12,000 jobs in Europe by end of 2020

Ford to realign its European operations, Stockwinners

Ford (F) said in a statement that it is launching a new business model and fresh vehicle line-up as part of the most comprehensive redesign in the history of its business in Europe.

The company also is on track to significantly improve its financial results in Europe this year, paving the way to sustainable profitability and its longer-term goal of delivering a 6% EBIT margin.

The new European operating model and resulting organization are effective July 1.

Three new business groups – Commercial Vehicles, Passenger Vehicles and Imports – are being established to facilitate fast decision-making centered on customer needs, Ford said.

Ford Kuga will now be manufactured in China instead of Europe, Stockwinners

Ford is freshening and expanding its vehicle line-up in Europe, introducing at least three new nameplates in the next five years as it continues to grow its utility vehicle portfolio, including the all-new Mustang-inspired fully electric performance utility.

The new nameplates are in addition to all-new Kuga, Puma and Explorer Plug-In Hybrid coming by early 2020.

Manufacturing efficiency is being improved through the previously announced proposed or confirmed closure or sale of six assembly and component manufacturing plants by the end of next year: Proposed closure of Bridgend Engine Plant in South Wales; Closure of Ford Aquitaine Industries Transmission Plant in France; Closure of Naberezhnye Chelny Assembly, St. Petersburg Assembly and Elabuga Engine Plant in Russia; Sale of the Kechnec Transmission Plant in Slovakia to Magna.

This Ford Mustang designed for the European market, Stockwinners

As a result, Ford’s manufacturing footprint in Europe will be reduced to a proposed 18 facilities by the end of 2020, from 24 at the beginning of 2019.

In the U.K., the Ford of Britain and Ford Credit Europe headquarters in Warley also will close later this year and operations consolidated in Dunton.

In addition, Ford is implementing shift reductions at its assembly plants in Saarlouis, Germany, and Valencia, Spain, as well as a more streamlined management structure and marketing and sales operations.

In total, approximately 12,000 jobs will be impacted at Ford’s wholly owned facilities and consolidated joint ventures in Europe by the end of 2020, primarily through voluntary separation programs.

Around 2,000 of those are salaried positions, which are included among the 7,000 salaried positions Ford is reducing globally.

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Investors unhappy with Bed Bath & Beyond

Investor group outlines strategic plan for Bed Bath & Beyond

Bed Bath & Beyond tumbles on competition. Stockwinners.com

Investor group outlines strategic plan for Bed Bath & Beyond , Stockwinners

Legion Partners Holdings, Macellum Advisors GP and Ancora Advisors released a presentation outlining the Investor Group’s Strategic Plan for Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY).

The group said, “The plan outlines the path forward to modernizing Bed Bath’s retail practices and delivering a significant earnings per share improvement which could drive $5.00 per share of annual earnings – a level that Bed Bath achieved just a few short years ago.

The Investor Group’s Strategic Plan includes the following highlights: Revamp executive management – recruiting a top-flight CEO to lead Bed Bath going forward and instill a world-class winning culture.

We plan to launch a search in the near term to address this key position. Reverse sales weakness – fixing the merchandise over-assortment problem through a detailed SKU rationalization process as well as developing a merchandise architecture that will better resonate with customers.

Making the in-store experience something that drives traffic to the stores will be a major priority.

Turn around Company culture – increase focus on employee training and education to improve motivation; empower employees to better use technology and improve customer experience.

Significantly expand gross margins – improve vendor relations and drive profits by establishing a direct sourcing strategy and private label program as well as fixing mix issues created by the Company’s shift to commoditized and lower margin products.

Implement cost cutting – conducting an extensive reassessment of the increases in expenses over the last five years, including the explosion of the Company’s advertising budget, seemingly endless array of initiatives that have failed to produce meaningful results and extensive use of consultants.

Improve inventory – increasing inventory turns which would result in a substantial release of cash tied up in slow moving goods. Fix capital allocation – reviewing all non-core businesses and assessing their value as part of the business or their potential value to other parties.

Excess cash created could be applied to share or debt repurchases, both of which are significantly accretive given discounted trading levels.

Lastly, the increase in capital expenditures will be addressed. Above all, the Investor Group’s director nominees have the relevant experience and commitment to execute on these priorities and hold management accountable for delivering results.”

BBBY last traded at $16.68

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Alliance Data sells Epsilon for $4.4 billion

Publicis to acquire Epsilon for $4.40B in cash

Publicis (PUBGY) announced it has entered into an agreement with Alliance Data Systems (ADS) under which Publicis will acquire Alliance Data’s Epsilon business for a net purchase price of $3.95B after tax step-up – total cash consideration of $4.40B – and build a strategic partnership with Alliance Data remaining business.


Publicis to acquire Epsilon for $4.40B in cash , Stockwinners

The acquisition gives Publicis access to Epsilon’s data capabilities. The company says, for example, it has more than 250 million unique consumers identified in the U.S. The company says it can build on top of a client’s first-party data with its own assets, like behavioral and transactional data.

The Directoire, or Management Board, and the Conseil de Surveillance, or Supervisory Board, of Publicis have unanimously approved this transaction.

Alliance Data sells Epsilon for $4.4 billion, Stockwinners

Arthur Sadoun, Chairman and CEO of Publicis, said that, “Our clients are facing increasing pressure from the rise in consumer expectations, the mainstreaming of direct-to-consumer brands and new data regulations. The only response is to deliver personalized experiences at scale. They have to transform to meet this new market imperative.”

Edward Heffernan, Alliance Data Systems’ President and CEO, added that, “I’m pleased to say today’s announcement represents a trifecta win for Alliance Data, Epsilon and Publicis Groupe.

The announcement of this transaction represents the culmination of an extensive assessment of strategic options for our Epsilon business.

With this transaction, we have found what we believe to be the right home for Epsilon’s technology, data assets and associates.

Publicis Groupe will be the ideal cultural and strategic fit for Epsilon and its Conversant business, and will help drive Publicis Groupe’s own transformation in today’s data-driven digital world.

Furthermore, the unique relationships that have been cultivated between Epsilon and our other Alliance Data businesses will remain intact, and we look forward to working with Publicis Groupe to develop an even broader relationship promoting mutual and sustainable growth going forward.”

Under the terms of the agreed transaction, Publicis will acquire Epsilon for a cash consideration of $4.40B, representing a net purchase price of $3.95B after deducting the benefit of acquisition-related tax step-up.

This implies an 8.2-times multiple, based on a 2018 Adjusted EBITDA of $485M.

According to Publicis, the transaction will be double digit accretive to its headline EPS and free Cash Flow per share from year one.

Publicis also said that it “remains committed” to its 45% dividend payout ratio and will put on hold its share repurchase program in the context of this acquisition.

The transaction remains subject to customary approvals and is expected to close in Q3 2019.

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WalMart Earnings Outlook

Walmart (WMT) is scheduled to report results of its fourth quarter before the market open on Tuesday, February 19, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am EDT.

Wal-Mart reports next week. See Stockwinners.com for the report

What to watch for:

1. OUTLOOK: Walmart previously raised its fiscal 2019 EPS view to $4.90-$5.05 and narrowed its net sales view to up about 2%, but cut its EPS outlook at its investor meeting in October to $4.65-$4.80.

In its November earnings report, Walmart again raised its FY19 EPS outlook to $4.75-$4.85. The current Street forecast for FY19 EPS stands at $4.84 on revenue of $514.33B.

The company previously said it was moving to an annual guidance framework with its quarterly updates, and that while there may be fluctuations within the quarters, “we believe EPS growth will be relatively consistent across the year.”

Baird analyst Peter Benedict said he expects Walmart’s Q4 earnings to be solid, and expects guidance to remain intact, although he recognizes the uncertainty with Flipkart as the result of new regulations in India.

2. HOLIDAY SEASON:

Jet.com’s holiday weekend was “truly horrible,” with sales down 6% on Thanksgiving and Black Friday and a 39% plunge on Cyber Monday vs. last year, BuzzFeed News reported, citing data from market research firm Edison Trends.

According to the data, Target.com (TGT) sales increased 48% on Thanksgiving and Black Friday and 19% on Cyber Monday, Amazon (AMZN) increased by 25% on Black Friday and Thanksgiving and 17% on Cyber Monday, and Jet.com parent Walmart.com increased sales revenue by 23% on Thanksgiving and Black Friday and 32% on Cyber Monday.

In late December, Amazon said that it had a “record-breaking” holiday season with more items ordered worldwide than ever before. Amazon customers shopped at record levels from a wide selection of products across every department, it said.

3. COMPETITION:

Retailers like Walmart have been hurt by an increase in online shopping on sites like Amazon rather than at brick-and-mortar stores. Walmart is seeking to create a big ad business to rival that of Amazon, Bloomberg reported, adding that it has hired executives from NBC (CMCSA) and CBS (CBS) to help bolster its advertising business.

Walmart has also launched a private-label furniture brand, called MoDRN, which is “a direct hit to big furniture retailers” such as Wayfair (W) and Ikea and a challenge to rival Amazon, Erica Pandey wrote for Axios.

4. FLIPKART:

Bernstein analyst Brandon Fletcher said that India has been bandying about restrictive e-commerce regulations this past year, and finally pulled the trigger despite protestations from both Walmart and Amazon.

Walmart to pay about $16B for initial stake of about 77% in India's Flipkart, Stockwinners
Walmart to pay about $16B for initial stake of about 77% in India’s Flipkart, Stockwinners

The new rules put a damper on 1P selling models, pricing discounts, supplier exclusives, and supplier shares of sales above 25%, all of which are important to both companies’ planned models.

While not significant to Walmart’s total revenues, the analyst believes it does put a damper on its long-term growth potential in the market through Flipkart and raises the question of where Walmart will make up that growth.

Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman said Flipkart’s losses will likely rise due to new e-commerce regulations in India and Walmart investors “can’t ignore Flipkart” as it once again becomes a bigger part of the retailer’s investment narrative.

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Tesaro sold for $75 per share

Tesaro to be acquired by GSK for approx. $5.1B

 

Tesaro could be sold soon, Stockwinners
Tesaro sold for $75 per share, Stockwinners

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and TESARO (TSRO) announced that the companies have entered into a definitive agreement pursuant to which GSK will acquire TESARO, an oncology-focused company based in Waltham, Massachusetts, for an aggregate cash consideration of approximately $5.1B.

The proposed transaction significantly strengthens GSK’s pharmaceutical business, accelerating the build of GSK’s pipeline and commercial capability in oncology. The acquisition price of $75 per share in cash represents a 110% premium to TESARO’s 30 day Volume Weighted Average Price of $35.67 and an aggregate consideration of approximately $5.1B including the assumption of TESARO’s net debt.

Zejula’s revenues in its current approved indication as second-line maintenance treatment for ovarian cancer were $166 million for the 9 months ended 30 September 2018.

GSK expects the acquisition of TESARO and associated R&D and commercial investments will impact Adjusted EPS for the first two years by mid to high single digit percentages, reducing thereafter with the acquisition expected to start to be accretive to Adjusted EPS by 2022. GSK’s guidance for full-year 2018 Adjusted EPS growth remains unchanged at 8 to 10% at CER.

GSK continues to expect to deliver on its previously published Group Outlooks to 2020, but following the acquisition of TESARO now expects Adjusted EPS growth at CER for the period 2016-2020 to be at the bottom end of the mid to high single digit percentage CAGR range.

GSK confirms no change to its current dividend policy and continues to expect to pay 80p in dividends for 2018. GSK expects to fund the acquisition from cash resources and drawing under a new acquisition facility.

Please click here and read our blog when we predicted this transaction.


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Altria to buy stake in Juul Labs

Altria, under pressure from FDA, said in talks to buy stake in Juul Labs

 

Altria to buy stake in Juul Labs, Stockwinners
Altria to buy stake in Juul Labs, Stockwinners

Following a report that Altria Group (MO) is in talks to take a “significant” stake in Juul Labs, an analyst said that an agreement could make strategic sense for the tobacco giant to gain exposure to a fast-growing product that poses a threat to its cigarette business.

The Wall Street Journal said Altria is in talks to take a “significant” minority interest in Juul Labs, a controversial e-cigarette startup.

According to people familiar with the matter, any deal is likely several weeks away. Juul was last valued at $16B in a private fundraising round this summer.

Altria has an agreement with Philip Morris (PM) to market IQOS, subject to regulatory approval. Philip Morris is already selling it in 43 countries and has said it could get approved for the U.S. by the end of the year.

Juul has drawn criticism over its products’ popularity with teens.

Juul, whose products are sold online and in convenience stores, gas stations and vape shops, accounted for about three-quarters of the U.S. e-cigarette market in the four-week period ended November 17, according to the Wells Fargo analysis of Nielsen data.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced plans to place restrictions on sales of flavored e-cigarettes.

Juul also said it would restrict sales of nearly all its flavored pods to the internet, and stop most social media promotion to combat youth vaping.

“More than 99% of all social media content related to JUUL Labs is generated through third-party users and accounts with no affiliation to our company. Nevertheless, we understand that many young people get their information from social media. To remove ourselves entirely from participation in the social conversation, we have decided to shut down our U.S.-based social media accounts on Facebook (FB) and Instagram. We have never used Snapchat (SNAP),” the company stated.

WHAT’S NOTABLE

Following the FDA statement on the agency’s proposed steps against underage smoking, Altria General Counsel Murray Garnick said it “welcomed” the FDA’s efforts to address the underage use of e-vapor products and said it believes Congress should raise the legal age of purchase for all tobacco products to 21.

Last month, Altria said it would pull its pod-based e-vapor products from the market until approved by FDA.

The company said Nu Mark will remove MarkTen Elite and Apex by MarkTen pod-based products from the market “until these products receive a market order from the FDA or the youth issue is otherwise addressed,” and that for the remaining MarkTen and Green Smoke cig-a-like products, Nu Mark will sell only tobacco, menthol and mint varieties.

Nu Mark will discontinue the sale of all other flavor variants of our cig-a-like products until these products receive a market order from the FDA.

The FDA is also pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes, which could remove nearly a third of the roughly 250B cigarettes sold annually in the U.S., The Wall Street Journal said.

A rule could take a year or more to finalize, the FDA said. The FDA concluded in 2013 that menthols are harder to quit and likely pose a greater health risk than regular cigarettes.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman said she has no knowledge of a potential deal between Altria and Juul but that taking such a stake could make strategic sense for Altria to gain exposure to a fast growing product that poses a threat to its cigarette business.

Altria does not have a robust reduced risk product portfolio and Juul’s e-cigs could significantly enhance its competitive position, stated Kaufman, who also believes Altria would likely be buying in at a lower valuation than the previously reported $15B given the FDA recently prohibited flavored pods sales in convenience stores.

 OTHERS TO WATCH

Publicly traded companies in the tobacco products space also include Philip Morris and British American Tobacco (BTI).


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Pareteum to acquire iPass

Pareteum to acquire iPass in all-stock transaction

Pareteum to acquire iPass, Stockwinners.com
Pareteum to acquire iPass, Stockwinners.com

Pareteum (TEUM) and iPass (IPAS) announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Pareteum will acquire iPass in an all-stock transaction whereby iPass shareholders will receive 1.17 shares of Pareteum common stock in an exchange offer.

With this accretive acquisition, Pareteum expects to gain a strategic position with new marquee brands and new markets including the enterprise, airline, hospitality, retail and internet of things sectors.

Pareteum expects to strengthen its established intellectual property portfolio with the addition of over 40 U.S. and international patents.

With more than 500 expected new customers and a global network of over 68M Wi-Fi hot spots, coupled with proven connection management technology, location services and Wi-Fi performance data, Pareteum is now poised to take its global communications software solutions to every market vertical.

The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to Pareteum’s non-GAAP EPS and free cash ow after anticipated synergies.

Pareteum anticipates achieving more than $15 million in annual cost synergies with greater than $12 million of those expected to be realized in the rst full quarter of combined operations. Pareteum currently estimates approximately $2.0 million of GAAP earnings accretion and $5.5 million of non-GAAP earnings accretion in the rst full year after closing the transaction.

In addition, the acquisition will add new offices and talent in Silicon Valley, California and Bangalore, India, expanding Pareteum’s presence globally.

Under the terms of the acquisition agreement, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pareteum will commence an exchange offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of iPass common stock, offering 1.17 shares of Pareteum common stock in exchange for each share of iPass common stock tendered.

Upon satisfaction of the conditions to the exchange offer, and after the shares tendered in the exchange oer are accepted for payment, the agreement provides for the parties to effect, as promptly as practicable, a merger, which would not require a vote by iPass stockholders, and which would result in each share of iPass common stock not tendered in the exchange offer being converted into the right to receive 1.17 shares of Pareteum common stock.

The exchange offer is subject to customary conditions, including the tender of at least a majority of the outstanding shares of iPass common stock and certain regulatory approvals, and is expected to close in the rst quarter of calendar year 2019.

No approval of the stockholders of Pareteum is required in connection with the proposed transaction.

Terms of the agreement were approved by the board of directors for both Pareteum and iPass.


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Athenahealth sold for $5.7 billion

Athenahealth to be acquired by Veritas Capital for $135 per share in cash

Athenahealth sold for $5.7 billion, Stockwinners
Athenahealth sold for $5.7 billion, Stockwinners

Athenahealth (ATHN), Veritas Capital and Evergreen Coast Capital, announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which an affiliate of Veritas and Evergreen will acquire athenahealth for approximately $5.7B in cash.

Under the terms of the agreement, athenahealth shareholders will receive $135 in cash per share.

The per share purchase price represents a premium of approximately 12% over the company’s closing stock price on November 9, 2018, the last trading day prior to today’s announcement, and a premium of approximately 27 percent over the company’s closing stock price on May 17, 2017, the day prior to Elliott Management Corporation’s announcement that it had acquired an approximate 9% interest in the company.

Following the closing, Veritas and Evergreen expect to combine athenahealth with Virence Health, the GE Healthcare Value-based Care assets that Veritas acquired earlier this year.

The combined business is expected to be a leading, privately-held healthcare information technology company with an extensive national provider network of customers and world-class products and solutions to help them thrive in an increasingly complex environment.

Following the close of that transaction, the combined company is expected to operate under the athenahealth brand and be headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.

The company will be led by Virence Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bob Segert and an executive leadership team comprised of executives from both companies.

Following the completion of the transaction, Virence’s Workforce Management business will become a separate Veritas portfolio company under the API Healthcare brand.

Athenahealth investor Elliott Management has expressed support for the transaction.

Elliott Partner Jesse Cohn said, “We are pleased to support this transformative transaction combining athenahealth and Virence, which we believe represents an outstanding, value-maximizing outcome for athenahealth shareholders.”

Upon completion of the transaction, Elliott’s private equity subsidiary, Evergreen Coast Capital, will retain a minority investment stake in the combined company.

The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019, subject to the approval of the holders of a majority of athenahealth’s outstanding shares and the satisfaction of customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

The athenahealth Board of Directors has unanimously approved the merger agreement and intends to recommend that athenahealth shareholders vote in favor of it at a Special Meeting of Stockholders, to be scheduled as soon as practicable.

The transaction is not subject to a financing condition. In light of today’s announcement and the pending transaction, athenahealth will no longer be hosting its previously announced Q3 2018 earnings call.

ATHN closed at $120.35.


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Investment Technology Group sold for $1 billion

ITG to be acquired by Virtu Financial for $30.30 per share in cash

Investment Technology Group sold for $1 billion, Stockwinners
Investment Technology Group sold for $1 billion, Stockwinners

Investment Technology Group (ITG) announced that it has reached a definitive agreement for Virtu Financial (VIRT) to acquire all outstanding shares of ITG’s Common Stock for $30.30 per share in cash.

Investment Technology Group, Inc. operates as a financial technology company in the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

Virtu Financial, Inc.  provides market making and liquidity services through its proprietary, multi-asset, and multi-currency technology platform to the financial markets worldwide.

The price represents a premium of more than 40% over ITG’s average closing share price of $21.55 in the 30 days prior to news reports of a potential sale on October 4, 2018.

Minder Cheng, Chairman of the Board of Directors, said, “ITG has made tremendous progress in executing on its Strategic Operating Plan over the past two years, and the agreement with Virtu is a result of the dedicated efforts of our management team and employees.

After careful consideration, ITG’s Board of Directors determined that the proposal from Virtu, which provides an immediate and significant cash premium, offers the most value for ITG stockholders. The combination of Virtu and ITG will create an industry-leading financial technology franchise with true global capabilities and scale.” J.P. Morgan is serving as the financial advisor and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz is providing legal counsel to ITG.


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Datawatch sold for $176 million

Altair to acquire Datawatch for $13.10 per share

Datawatch sold for $176 million, Stockwinners
Datawatch sold for $176 million, Stockwinners

Altair (ALTR) and Datawatch (DWCH) announced the signing of a definitive merger agreement under which Altair has agreed to acquire Datawatch. Under the terms of the agreement, Altair will pay $13.10 per share in cash, representing a fully diluted equity value of approximately $176M.

The transaction was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies.

Under the terms of the definitive merger agreement, Altair will commence a tender offer within ten business days to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of Datawatch for $13.10 per share in cash.

This represents a 35% percent premium to the closing price of Datawatch’s common stock on November 2.

The tender offer is subject to customary closing conditions, including the tender of at least a majority of the outstanding shares of Datawatch common stock and the expiration or early termination of the applicable waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976.

Following the closing of the tender offer, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Altair will merge with and into Datawatch, with each share of Datawatch common stock that has not been tendered being converted into the right to receive the same $13.10 per share in cash offered in the tender offer.

The transaction is anticipated to close in Q4.

Datawatch Corporation designs, develops, markets, and distributes business computer software products to self-service data preparation and visual data discovery markets in the United States and internationally.

Altair Engineering Inc. provides enterprise-class engineering software worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Software and Client Engineering Services. Its integrated suite of multi-disciplinary computer aided engineering software optimizes design performance across various disciplines, including structures, motion, fluids, thermal management, electromagnetics, system modeling and embedded systems, as well as provides data analytics and true-to-life visualization and rendering.


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LSC Communications sold for $1.4 billion

Quad/Graphics to acquire LSC Communications in all-stock deal valued at $1.4B

LSC Communications sold for $1.4 billion, Stockwinners
LSC Communications sold for $1.4 billion, Stockwinners

Quad/Graphics (QUAD) and LSC Communications (LKSD) announced that their boards of directors have approved a definitive agreement whereby Quad will acquire LSC Communications in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $1.4B, including the refinancing of LSC Communications’ debt.

As of September 30, 2018, the combined company would have had annual revenue of approximately $8B.

The deal is expected to close in mid-2019, and be accretive to earnings, excluding non-recurring integration costs.

Net synergies are expected to be approximately $135M, and will be achieved in less than two years and result in substantial additional Free Cash Flow generation.

Under the terms of the agreement, LSC Communications shareholders will receive 0.625 shares of Quad Class A common stock for each LSC Communications share they own, representing approximately 29 percent total economic ownership of the combined company and approximately 11 percent of the vote of the combined company.

Based on the closing share prices of both companies on October 30, 2018, the merger consideration represents a premium of 34 percent to LSC Communications shareholders.

Quad shareholders will continue to own Class A and Class B shares, representing approximately 71 percent total economic ownership of the combined company and approximately 89 percent total voting power of the combined company.

The transaction supports Quad’s long-term strategic vision by preserving the Quadracci Family leadership and voting control in the company. Quad expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings, excluding non-recurring integration costs.

Net synergies are expected to be approximately $135 million, and will be achieved in less than two years, through the elimination of duplicative functions, capacity rationalization, greater operational efficiencies and greater efficiencies in supply chain management that will also benefit our clients.

Joel Quadracci will be Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of the combined company.

Quad will expand its board of directors to include two members from LSC Communications’ existing board.

The transaction is expected to close in mid-2019, subject to approval by Quad and LSC Communications shareholders, regulatory approval and other customary closing conditions.

The Quadracci Family Voting Trust, holder of approximately 64 percent of the voting power of Quad’s outstanding common stock, has entered into a voting agreement with LSC Communications pursuant to which it will vote in favor of the issuance of shares in connection with the transaction.


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