FOMC Raises Rates

Fed boosts rates 50 basis points, says ongoing raises ‘appropriate’ 

The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”

Federal Reserve to reduce Treasury, debt holdings on June 1 – The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “The Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.”

Fed says inflation remains elevated, Ukraine impacts ‘highly uncertain’ – The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.”

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Rate Hikes are Coming!

Fed Chair confirmed a 25 bp rate hike this month

Fed’s Beige Book was released a few minutes ago. The report reiterated the economy expanded at a “modest to moderate” pace. Many Districts reported that the surge in Covid cases and severe winter weather disrupted businesses. Some firms noted a “temporary” weakening in demand in the hospitality sector to Covid.

The Beige Book reports an expanding economy

“All Districts” said supply chain issues and low inventories continued to restrain growth, especially in construction.

The overall outlook for the next 6 months remained one of stable and general optimism, though with elevated uncertainty.

Powell, FOMC Chair, Stockwinners
Fed Chief Jerome Powell

For the labor market, the widespread strong demand for labor was hampered by “equally widespread reports of worker scarcity.”

Meanwhile,  Fed Chair Powell’s testified before the Congress today. He confirmed a 25 basis points rate hike is in the cards for the March 15-16 meeting.

FOMC as policymakers look to address “indisputably” high inflation pressures. He also suggested more aggressive increases could be warranted down the road. Powell said liquidity has been functional thanks to a number of measures and facilities put in place, including swap lines and the standing repo facility.

FOMC is looking to soak up liquidity

The Fed has “institutionalized liquidity provisions” — hence the geopolitical pressures have not added stresses in the funding markets.

The markets are sharply higher across all sectors.

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Economic Activities Slowed in December

U.S. flash Markit PMIs all slipped in December

U.S. flash Markit Purchasing Managers Index’s (PMI) all slipped in December as activity eased amid well known headwinds such as capacity constraints and Omicron variant spread.

Flash Manufacturing PMI is an estimate of manufacturing for a country, based on about 85% to 90% of total Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey responses each month.

Any reading of the Flash Manufacturing PMI above 50 indicates improving conditions, while readings below 50 indicate a deteriorating economic climate.

The manufacturing index fell another -0.5 ticks to 57.8 in December after dipping -0.1 ticks to 58.3 in November. It is the weakest since the 57.1 last December.

The index has been sliding from the record high of 63.4 in July, but it remains in expansion for an 18th straight month.

New orders declined to 56.3 from 56.9, while supplier delivers increased to their best reading since May.

The preliminary services index also fell -0.5 ticks to 57.5 on the month following the -0.7 point decline to 58.0. The reading is above the 54.8 from a year ago, however, and has been above 50 since July 2020.

The business expectations component improved to its highest reading since November 2020.

Input prices climbed to 77.4 versus 75.7 last month and is at an all-time peak (data goes back to 2009).

The composite reading dipped -0.3 ticks to 56.9 from November’s 57.2 and was at 55.3 last December. Input prices increased to a new record level at 78.1 from November’s 77.6.

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Railroad Traffic Points to Growing Economy

North American rail traffic rose 10.6% in week ended June 19, AAR says

The Association of American Railroads, AAR, reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending June 19.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 514,112 carloads and intermodal units, up 12.5% compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending June 19 were 232,144 carloads, up 15.1% compared with the same week in 2020, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 281,968 containers and trailers, up 10.4% compared to 2020.

For some rail traffic categories, percentage changes for the current week compared with the same week in 2020 are inflated because of the widespread shutdowns – and subsequent large reduction in rail volumes – that impacted many economic sectors last year at this time.

North American rail volume for the week ending June 19, on 12 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 329,907 carloads, up 11.3% compared with the same week last year, and 369,258 intermodal units, up 10% compared with last year.

Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 699,165 carloads and intermodal units, up 10.6%.

North American rail volume for the first 24 weeks of 2021 was 16,805,420 carloads and intermodal units, up 12.1% compared with 2020.

Publicly traded companies in the space include CSX (CSX), Canadian National (CNI), Canadian Pacific (CP), Genesee & Wyoming (GWR), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP).

Dow Jones Transport Index is up 19 points to 14,959.

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Uncertainty in economy pushes lawmakers to come up with stimulus bill!

Powell says outlook for economy is ‘extraordinarily uncertain’

In prepared remarks for the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said:

Jerome Powell say economy is on shaky ground

“Economic activity has continued to recover from its depressed second-quarter level. The reopening of the economy led to a rapid rebound in activity, and real gross domestic product, or GDP, rose at an annual rate of 33 percent in the third quarter.

In recent months, however, the pace of improvement has moderated.

Household spending on goods, especially durable goods, has been strong and has moved above its pre-pandemic level.

In contrast, spending on services remains low largely because of ongoing weakness in sectors that typically require people to gather closely, including travel and hospitality.

The overall rebound in household spending is due, in part, to federal stimulus payments and expanded unemployment benefits, which provided essential support to many families and individuals…

As we have emphasized throughout the pandemic, the outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend, in large part, on the success of efforts to keep the virus in check…

Covid-19 has caused a global slowdown

The rise in new COVID-19 cases, both here and abroad, is concerning and could prove challenging for the next few months.

A full economic recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities.

Recent news on the vaccine front is very positive for the medium term. For now, significant challenges and uncertainties remain, including timing, production and distribution, and efficacy across different groups.”

Meanwhile lawmakers in Washington have come up with a new stimulus plan.  

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers announced a $908B COVID-19 aid package aimed to breaking a monthslong deadlock between Democrats and Republicans over new emergency relief for small businesses, unemployed people, airlines, and other industries during the coronavirus crisis, Reuters’ Richard Cowan and Doina Chiacu report.

The bill has not yet been written into legislation, nor has it been embraced by the Republican White House, Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, or leaders in the Senate or House of Representatives, the authors note.

The package, however, does come with the support of a group of conservatives and moderates who believe it will appeal to a broad swath of Congress, the authors note.

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U.S. sues Teva Pharmaceuticals for kickbacks

Justice Department files False Claims Act against Teva Pharmaceuticals

The U.S. Attorney’s Office has filed a complaint under the False Claims Act against Teva Pharmaceuticals USA. and Teva Neuroscience (TEVA), the maker of Copaxone, a drug for multiple sclerosis.

The government alleges that Teva conspired with a specialty pharmacy, Advanced Care Scripts, and two purportedly independent foundations, Chronic Disease Fund and The Assistance Fund, to violate the Anti-Kickback Statute and False Claims Act by using the foundations as conduits to subsidize Medicare co-pays for Copaxone, all while steadily raising Copaxone’s price, the Justice Department said in a statement.

Teva Pharma. is accused of offering kickbacks

The government alleges that, from 2006 through at least 2015, Teva paid the two foundations well over $300M with the intent and understanding that the foundations would use Teva’s money to cover the Medicare co-pays of patients taking Copaxone. During the same period, Teva raised the price of Copaxone from approximately $17,000 per year to over $73,000 per year, according to the DOJ.

Copaxone is used to treat multiple sclerosis

Copaxone is a brand-name prescription drug. It’s approved to treat certain forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) in adults.

Chronic Disease Fund is accused of being part of the scheme

With MS, the immune system mistakenly attacks the nerves. The damaged nerves then have trouble communicating with brain. This condition can cause a wide variety of symptoms, such as muscle weakness and fatigue (lack of energy).

The Assistance Fund is accused of being part of the price kickback

Copaxone contains the active drug glatiramer acetate. It’s a disease-modifying therapy for MS. Copaxone helps to stop the immune system from attacking the nerves. The drug can reduce the number of MS relapses and also slow worsening of the disease.

Copaxone comes as a solution that’s given by subcutaneous injection (an injection under your skin).

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited is an Israeli pharmaceutical company. The firm develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes generic medicines, specialty medicines, and biopharmaceutical products in North America, Europe, and internationally. It is one of the largest generic drugmakers in the world.

Shares of Teva are down 9% to $10.52 in morning trading. 

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New York sues to dissolve NRA

New York Attorney General James files lawsuit to dissolve NRA

New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit seeking to dissolve the National Rifle Association.

According to a statement, “Attorney General James charges the organization with illegal conduct because of their diversion of millions of dollars away from the charitable mission of the organization for personal use by senior leadership, awarding contracts to the financial gain of close associates and family, and appearing to dole out lucrative no-show contracts to former employees in order to buy their silence and continued loyalty.

The suit specifically charges the NRA as a whole, as well as Executive Vice-President Wayne LaPierre, former Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer Wilson “Woody” Phillips, former Chief of Staff and the Executive Director of General Operations Joshua Powell, and Corporate Secretary and General Counsel John Frazer with failing to manage the NRA’s funds and failing to follow numerous state and federal laws, contributing to the loss of more than $64M in just three years for the NRA.

NY Attorney General Letitia James

In the complaint, Attorney General James lays out dozens of examples where the four individual defendants failed to fulfill their fiduciary duty to the NRA and used millions upon millions from NRA reserves for personal use, including trips for them and their families to the Bahamas, private jets, expensive meals, and other private travel.

In addition to shuttering the NRA’s doors, Attorney General James seeks to recoup millions in lost assets and to stop the four individual defendants from serving on the board of any not-for-profit charitable organization in the state of New York again.”

It further states that, “the NRA is alleged to have fostered a culture of noncompliance and disregard for internal controls that led to the waste and loss of millions in assets and contributed to the NRA reaching its current deteriorated financial state.

Vista Outdoor (VSTO), Stockwinners

The NRA’s internal policies were repeatedly not followed and were even blatantly ignored by senior leaders. Furthermore, the NRA board’s audit committee was negligent in its duty to ensure appropriate, competent, and judicious stewardship of assets by NRA leadership.

Specifically, the committee failed to assure standard fiscal controls, failed to respond adequately to whistleblowers, affirmatively took steps to conceal the nature and scope of whistleblower concerns from external auditors, and failed to review potential conflicts of interest for employees.

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI), Stockwinners

The lawsuit alleges that the four men instituted a culture of self-dealing, mismanagement, and negligent oversight at the NRA that was illegal, oppressive, and fraudulent.

They overrode and evaded internal controls to allow themselves, their families, favored board members, employees, and vendors to benefit through reimbursed expenses, related party transactions, excess compensation, side deals, and waste of charitable assets without regard to the NRA’s best interests.

Sturm, Ruger (RGR), Stockwinners

The complaint lays out numerous other instances in which LaPierre, Phillips, Powell, Frazer, and other executives and board members at the NRA abused their power and illegally diverted or facilitated the diversion of tens of millions of dollars from the NRA.

These funds were in addition to millions of dollars the four individual defendants were already receiving in grossly excessive salaries and bonuses that were not in line with the best practices and prudent standards for evaluating and determining compensation.”

Stocks to Watch

Companies in the firearm space include Sturm, Ruger (RGR), Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI), and Vista Outdoor (VSTO).

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NanoViricides shares jump on it’s potential Covid-19 drug

NanoViricides announces safety results from drug candidates against SARS-CoV-2

NanoViricides (NNVC) announced that safety and tolerability of the drug candidates it is developing against SARS-CoV-2 to treat COVID-19 spectrum of diseases was observed in an animal model.

The company said the nanoviricides drug candidates tested in this safety/tolerability study have previously shown strong effectiveness against lung infection by a SARS-CoV-2 like coronavirus, namely, hCoV-NL63, in an animal study as previously reported by the company.

Three different drug candidates at three different dosage levels and vehicle control were administered to separate groups of mice intravenously in the Safety-Tolerability study.

Clinical observations and gross post-mortem studies have been completed.

The tested drug candidates were safe and well tolerated, thereby clearing the path for further development towards a treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection that has caused the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Nanoviricides are designed to act by a novel mechanism of action, trapping the virus particle.

Antibodies, in contrast, only label the virus for other components of the immune system to take care of. It is well known that the immune system is not functioning properly at least in severe COVID-19 patients.

Additionally, it is well known that viruses escape antibody-drugs via mutations.

The company’s “nanoviricide” drug candidates, in contrast, are designed to be broad-spectrum, and therefore virus escape by mutations is expected to be unlikely.

In this Safety/Tolerability Study, there were no clinical signs of immune or allergic reactions such as itching, biting, twitching, rough coat, etc.

Further, there were no observable changes in any organs including large intestine or colon on post mortem in gross histology. The only reportable changes observed were, in the high dosage groups of two of the three drug candidates tested, associated with the non-absorption of water, in the colon.

This is consistent with the clinical observation of very loosened stools in the same groups. In clinical usage, the drug candidates are not anticipated to be administered in such high levels. The objective of this study was to discover the dosage level at which such an effect may occur.

Sixteen mice in each group were administered one of the three drug candidates at one of the three dose levels, and additionally, one group was administered vehicle control, for seven days by daily tail-vein intravenous infusion in this blinded study with additional evaluations on eighth day.

This non-GLP safety/tolerability study was conducted under GLP-like conditions.

The company believes that loose or very loose stools at very high dosages in such a study is an expected and acceptable side effect of the polyethylene glycol, or PEG, moiety, which forms the backbone of the nanoviricides drug candidates.

PEG is used prior to colonoscopy in humans to promote loose stools and internal cleaning of the intestines, by causing non-absorption of water.

The company has previously reported that these drug candidates have shown strong effectiveness in a lethal lung infection model in rats using a coronavirus that uses the same ACE2 receptor as SARS-CoV-2 which causes COVID-19, namely hCoV-NL63.

The company has found that hCoV-NL63, which causes a milder disease than SARS-CoV-2, causes substantially similar clinical pathology in this efficacy animal model as has been reported for SARS-CoV-2 associated lung infections in humans. In this previously reported lethal direct-lung-infection model efficacy study, animals in all groups developed lung disease which later led to multi-organ failures, a clinical pathology resembling that of the SARS-CoV-2.

Reduction in loss of body weight at day seven was used as the primary indicator of drug effectiveness. Rats were infected directly into lungs with lethal amounts of hCoV-NL63 virus particles and then different groups were treated separately with five different nanoviricides drug candidates, remdesivir as a positive control, and the vehicle as a negative control.

The treatment was intravenous by tail-vein injection once daily for five days, except in the case of remdesivir wherein it was by tail-vein injection twice daily. In this efficacy study, animals treated with the five different nanoviricides showed significantly reduced body weight loss.

The body weight loss in female animals ranged from only 3.9% to 11.2% in the different nanoviricide-treated groups, as compared to 20% in vehicle-treated control group, and 15.2% in a remdesivir-treated group. The body weight loss in male animals ranged from 8% to 10.9% in the different nanoviricides-treated groups, as compared to 25% in the vehicle-treated control group, and 18.6% in remdesivir-treated group.

Smaller numbers mean less loss in body weight compared to starting body weight in the group, and indicate greater drug effectiveness.

The effectiveness of nanoviricide drug candidates in the lung-infection model is consistent with the effectiveness observed in cell culture studies against infection of both hCoV-NL63, which was used in the efficacy study, and hCoV-229E, another circulating coronavirus that uses a distinctly different receptor, namely APN. Prior to filing for human clinical trials,

NanoViricides plans on requesting a pre-IND Meeting with the FDA for regulatory guidance.

NNVC is up $2.04 to $8.97.

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IMF warns of global slowdown

International Monetary Fund cuts global growth forecast

IMF cuts global growth forecast and warns that the rebound in global financial markets “appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects”.

The fund now expects global GDP to shrink -4.9% this year, from -3.0% expected in April.

For next year, the IMF sees a rebound of 5.4%, also lower than the 5.8% projected two months ago with downward revisions reflecting the deep scars from a larger than expected supply shock during lockdowns as well as a continued hit to demand from social distancing and other virus measures.

Orange color designates economic downgrades

The IMF warned that for nations struggling to control the spread of the virus a longer lockdown will also take a toll on growth.

“With the relentless spread of the pandemic, prospects of long lasting negative consequences for livelihoods, job security and inequality have grown more daunting”, according to the fund’s update to the World Economic Outlook.

Advanced economies are expected to lead the downdraft with a -8.0% rate, versus -6.1% in the prior forecast.

The outlook on the U.S. was downgraded to -8.0% from -5.9%.

The projection on the Euro Area was knocked down to -10.2% from -7.5%. The UK is also seen posting a -10.2% contraction versus -6.5% previously. Japan was revised to -5.8% from -5.2%.

Emerging market and developing economies are seen falling -3.0% versus -1.0% in the April forecast. China is expected to expand 1.0%, though down from the prior 1.2%.

The largest revision was seen with India where the prior 1.9% growth rate was revised to a -4.5% contraction. World trade volume is projected tumbling at a -11.9% pace this year, a downgrade from -11.0% previously, though is expected to bounce back to an 8.0% growth rate in 2021.

Consumer prices in Advanced economies is seen slowing to 0.3% versus the prior estimate of 0.5%, and is down from a 1.4% pace in 2019.

Several central bank officials have also tried to reign in optimism about the recovery as markets seem to run away with the recovery story.

India’s economy is expected to hit hard with Covid-19

Massive monetary and fiscal support may help to kick-start a rebound, but as ECB chief economist Lane warned today, it will take a long time to reach pre-crisis levels.

The Bank o Japan’s summary of opinion warned that a prolonged negative impact of virus developments on the economic outlook looks unavoidable. And China’s Beige Book expects a contraction for China’s economy this year. 

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, along with Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey and Governor Ned Lamont of Connecticut, announced a joint travel advisory.

All individuals traveling from states with significant community spread of COVID-19 into any of the three states must quarantine for 14 days, the governors announced.

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Fed pumps more money into economy

Fed says SMCCF will begin buying portfolio of corporate bonds

The Federal Reserve Board announced updates to the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, or SMCCF, which will begin buying “a broad and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds to support market liquidity and the availability of credit for large employers.”

The Fed added that “the SMCCF will purchase corporate bonds to create a corporate bond portfolio that is based on a broad, diversified market index of U.S. corporate bonds.

This index is made up of all the bonds in the secondary market that have been issued by U.S. companies that satisfy the facility’s minimum rating, maximum maturity, and other criteria.

Feds crank up their printing presses

This indexing approach will complement the facility’s current purchases of exchange-traded funds.

The Primary Market and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities were established with the approval of the Treasury Secretary and with $75 billion in equity provided by the Treasury Department from the CARES Act.”

The SMCCF supports market liquidity by purchasing in the secondary market corporate bonds issued by investment grade U.S. companies or certain U.S. companies that were investment grade as of March 22, 2020, as well as U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds.

Feds bailout Wall Street firms

The SMCCF’s purchases of corporate bonds will create a portfolio that tracks a broad, diversified market index of U.S. corporate bonds.

The Treasury, using funds appropriated to the ESF through the CARES Act, will make an equity investment in an SPV established by the Federal Reserve for the SMCCF and the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility.

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Feds inject more money into the economy

Federal Reserve to provide up to $2.3T in loans to support economy

The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy.

“Our country’s highest priority must be to address this public health crisis, providing care for the ill and limiting the further spread of the virus,” said Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell. “

Powell puts more money into the economy. Stockwinners

The Fed’s role is to provide as much relief and stability as we can during this period of constrained economic activity, and our actions today will help ensure that the eventual recovery is as vigorous as possible.”

The actions the Federal Reserve is taking today to support employers of all sizes and communities across the country will: Bolster the effectiveness of the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP, by supplying liquidity to participating financial institutions through term financing backed by PPP loans to small businesses.

Cash is infused into the economy at a record rate, Stockwinners

The PPP provides loans to small businesses so that they can keep their workers on the payroll.

The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, or PPPLF, will extend credit to eligible financial institutions that originate PPP loans, taking the loans as collateral at face value; Ensure credit flows to small and mid-sized businesses with the purchase of up to $600 billion in loans through the Main Street Lending Program.

Feds put more money in PPP

The Department of the Treasury, using funding from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act, will provide $75 billion in equity to the facility; Increase the flow of credit to households and businesses through capital markets, by expanding the size and scope of the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities, or PMCCF and SMCCF, as well as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF.

These three programs will now support up to $850 billion in credit backed by $85 billion in credit protection provided by the Treasury; and help state and local governments manage cash flow stresses caused by the coronavirus pandemic by establishing a Municipal Liquidity Facility that will offer up to $500 billion in lending to states and municipalities.

The Treasury will provide $35 billion of credit protection to the Federal Reserve for the Municipal Liquidity Facility using funds appropriated by the CARES Act.

The Main Street Lending Program will enhance support for small and mid-sized businesses that were in good financial standing before the crisis by offering 4-year loans to companies employing up to 10,000 workers or with revenues of less than $2.5 billion.

Principal and interest payments will be deferred for one year.

Eligible banks may originate new Main Street loans or use Main Street loans to increase the size of existing loans to businesses.

Banks will retain a 5 percent share, selling the remaining 95 percent to the Main Street facility, which will purchase up to $600 billion of loans.

Firms seeking Main Street loans must commit to make reasonable efforts to maintain payroll and retain workers. Borrowers must also follow compensation, stock repurchase, and dividend restrictions that apply to direct loan programs under the CARES Act.

Firms that have taken advantage of the PPP may also take out Main Street loans.

“The Federal Reserve and the Treasury recognize that businesses vary widely in their financing needs, particularly at this time, and, as the program is being finalized, will continue to seek input from lenders, borrowers, and other stakeholders to make sure the program supports the economy as effectively and efficiently as possible while also safeguarding taxpayer funds. Comments may be sent to the feedback form until April 16,” the central bank said.

To support further credit flow to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will broaden the range of assets that are eligible collateral for TALF.

As detailed in an updated term sheet, TALF-eligible collateral will now include the triple-A rated tranches of both outstanding commercial mortgage-backed securities and newly issued collateralized loan obligations.

The size of the facility will remain $100 billion, and TALF will continue to support the issuance of asset-backed securities that fund a wide range of lending, including student loans, auto loans, and credit card loans.

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Truck sales decline in November

Classes 5-8 truck orders soften in November amid trade and tariff worries

Truck sales downturn could be canary in the coal mine

There are eight classes of commercial motor vehicles in the United States, and they’re divided into three, more general categories: light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty. Commercial motor vehicles or trucks that operate on U.S. highways can be classified based on their gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR).

ACT Research said in an earlier report:

“Preliminary November data show that Classes 5-8 net order volumes were uniformly soft. Combined NA Classes 5-8 intake fell 15% m/m and 38% y/y in November on a nominal basis. Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data show the industry booked 17,500 units in November, down 20% from October, while Classes 5-7 orders fell 8% m/m, to 15,300 units.

Complete industry data for November, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-December.

Various Classes of Vehicles, Stockwinners

ACT’s State of the Industry:

Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales.

Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs.

This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package.

A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.

“Preliminary November data show that Class 8 net orders failed to sustain October’s encouraging start to the order season,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst.

He continued, “The freight market downturn worsened in the past month and uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers’ psyches. With rising pressure on carrier profits from the combined impact of lower rates and the recent, rather sudden jump in insurance premia, recent events have not developed in the industry’s favor.” Denoyer concluded,

“While private fleets continue to add capacity on the retail end, the market is increasingly heeding for-hire price signals and the stage is being set to right-size the fleet, bringing it closer to equilibrium with the work to be done.”

Historically, Dow Jones Transports have sold off prior to the rest of the market. The .djt has turned bearish as is shown above.

Publicly traded companies in the space include ArcBest (ARCB), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Knight-Swift (KNX), Old Dominion (ODFL), Swift Transportation (SWFT), Werner (WERN), Paccar (PCAR), Navistar (NAV)and Cummins (CMI).

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Liberty Property Trust sold for about $61 per share

Prologis to acquire Liberty Property for $12.6B

Prologis (PLD) and Liberty Property Trust (LPT) announced that the two companies have entered into a definitive merger agreement by which Prologis will acquire Liberty in an all-stock transaction, valued at approximately $12.6B, including the assumption of debt.

Prologis buys Liberty Property Trust, Stockwinners

The board of Prologis and the board of trustees of Liberty have each unanimously approved the transaction.

Warehouses and logistics facilities — Liberty’s specialty — have become a hot part of the real estate market as more shopping moves online and demand for the space increases. 

The acquisition gives Prologis a portfolio of 107 million square feet of logistics properties that’s owned or managed, as well as buildings under construction and land for future development. It also includes 4.9 million square feet of office space.

Prologis plans to dispose of approximately $3.5B of assets on a pro rata share basis. This includes $2.8B of non-strategic logistics properties and $700M of office properties.

This transaction is anticipated to create immediate cost synergies of approximately $120M from corporate general and administrative cost savings, operating leverage, lower interest expense and lease adjustments.

Initially, this transaction is expected to increase annual core funds from operations per share by 10c-12c. Upon stabilization of the acquired development assets, completion of the planned non-strategic asset sales and redeployment of the related proceeds, annual stabilized core FFO per share is forecasted to increase by an additional 4c per share for a total of 14c-16c.

Liberty holds mostly class A properties, Stockwinners

Further, there are future synergies with the potential to generate approximately $60M in annual savings, including $10M from revenue synergies and $50M from incremental development value creation.

“Liberty’s logistics assets are highly complementary to our U.S. portfolio, and this acquisition increases our holdings and growth potential in several key markets,” Prologis Chairman and Chief Executive Hamid R. Moghadam said in the statement.

Under the terms of the agreement, Liberty shareholders will receive 0.675x of a Prologis share for each Liberty share they own.

The transaction, which is currently expected to close in Q1 of 2020, is subject to the approval of Liberty shareholders and other customary closing conditions.

Liberty shares have risen 21% this year, compared with the 55% jump in Prologis shares. 

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility

LVMH offers to buy Tiffany for $120 per share or $14.5B

Tiffany is expected to reject the offer

According to several sources including Bloomberg, Financial Times and Reuters, Louis Vuitton owner LVMH has approached Tiffany & Co (TIF) with a $14.5 billion acquisition offer, people familiar with the matter said, at a time when the U.S. luxury jeweler grapples with the impact of tariffs on its exports to China.

LVMH, which has for years been looking for ways to expand in the U.S. market, submitted a preliminary, non-binding offer to Tiffany earlier this month, one of the sources said.

LVMH is looking to boost U.S. sales, Stockwinners

LVMH’s offer valued Tiffany at about $120 per share, another of the sources added. Tiffany shares ended trading on Friday at $98.55.

Tiffany is expected to reject the $14.5B offer, Stockwinners

Financial Times reports that Tiffany is expected to rebuff the takeover approach from French luxury group LVMH, with the US jeweller believing the offer undervalues the company, according to people familiar with the matter. Tiffany’s advisers were on Sunday still assessing the surprise indicative offer from LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group by sales, with the board set to consider the next move. 

LVMH, which is behind brands such as Fendi, Christian Dior and Givenchy, as well as Veuve Cliquot champagne, has stood out for several years as one of the top performers in the upscale retail sector in China.

Tiffany, on the other hand, has not been as resilient. Beyond the tariffs that have been triggered by the trade war between the United States and China, a lower Chinese domestic sales tax has also contributed to double-digit decreases in its sales to Chinese tourists in the United States and in other destinations.

High-end brands have also long relied on Hong Kong as a major shopping hub drawing visitors from mainland China in particular, and four months of pro-democracy demonstrations are starting to take their toll.

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Feds Cut Rates on All Instruments!

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds target rate by 25 basis points

The Federal Reserve said in today’s statement, “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.

Powell, FOMC Chair, Stockwinners
Fed Chief Powell. Stockwinners.com

Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft.

On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.

In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.

As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

Long Term Rates

The Federal Reserve also said in today’s statement, “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.

This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.”

Bernanke came up with “Quantitative Easing” in 2008, Stockwinners

If you have no idea what the above paragraph means, this may help. Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke, then the Fed Chair, came up with a clever idea! Since the rates at the time where near zero. He needed a way to lower the rates, he started buying long term government bonds. The added demand for bonds caused bond prices to rise thus pushing the rates lower. In the past few quarters, the Feds have been selling these bonds, pushing prices lower, thus higher long term rates. Today’s announcement basically says Feds are ending the bond sales two months earlier, long term rates (mortgage prices) will now go lower.

Powell Comments

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the easing was to ensure against downside risks, as he begins his press conference.

He acknowledged the shift in the policy stance since December’s pivot. Fed has seen both positive and negative developments since the June meeting, including a stronger job market, but weaker manufacturing and disappointing foreign growth, while contacts continue to cite ongoing trade uncertainties are giving companies pause.

The Committee has gradually lowered the assessments of growth and that led to the easing today. On whether a 25 bp cut will prop up inflation, he noted one has to look at the Committee’s actions over the year as it’s moved to a more accommodative stance.

The Committee is thinking of today’s action as a mid-cycle adjustment to policy, designed to provide support for the economy, ensure against downside risks, and support inflation. Chair Powell continued to appeal to downside risks and below target inflation as the main threats to the favorable outlook.

He added, the Fed will monitor the evolution of trade uncertainty, which do seem to be having significant effect on the economy. He thinks trade is a new factor that the FOMC will have to assess “in a new way.”

The chair again said it’s not appropriate to just look at the quarter point easing, but rather the evolution of the Fed’s stance from tightening to easing, with the economy picking up since the end of 2018, which suggests monetary policy is working (though he declined to take full credit for the economy’s gains).

10-year yields fall, Stockwinners
Ten year yields approach 2.00 percent, Stockwinners

Market Action

The Fed repeated it will “monitor” incoming information and will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” not really suggesting the path ahead. The long end of the Treasury market is leading the way with the benchmark 10-year 4.4 bps lower to test 2.00, versus 2.023% just ahead of the announcement. The 2-year is down 1.4 bps to 1.83% versus 1.81% earlier. Hence, the curve has flattened to 17 bps from around 20 bps previously.

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