Government forecasts steady energy prices in 2020 and 21

EIA says U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3M b/d in 2020

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices will average $65 per barrel in 2020 and $68/b in 2021, compared with an average of $64/b in 2019.

Domestic productions to rise in 2020, Stockwinners

EIA expects West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude oil prices will average about $5.50/b lower than Brent prices through 2020 and 2021, compared with an average WTI discount of about $7.35/b in 2019.

Global liquid fuels inventories were mostly unchanged in 2019, and EIA expects they will grow by 0.3 million b/d in 2020 and then decline by 0.2 million b/d in 2021.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Production in all regions to rise in 2020, Stockwinners

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.2 million b/d in 2019, up 1.3 million b/d from 2018.

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million b/d in 2020 and 13.7 million b/d in 2021.

  • On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) enacted Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Convention), which lowers the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used in ocean-going vessels from 3.5% of weight to 0.5%.
  • EIA expects this regulation will encourage global refiners to increase refinery runs and maximize upgrading of high-sulfur heavy fuel oil into low-sulfur distillate fuel to create compliant bunker fuels.
  • EIA forecasts that U.S. refinery runs will rise by 3% from 2019 to a record level of 17.5 million b/d in 2020, resulting in refinery utilization rates that average 93% in 2020.
  • EIA expects one of the most significant effects of the regulation will be on diesel wholesale margins, which will rise from an average of 43 cents per gallon (gal) in 2019 to a forecast peak of 53 cents/gal in March 2020 and an annual average of 50 cents/gal in 2020. EIA expects diesel margins to decline to 49 cents/gal in 2021.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.60/gal in 2019, and EIA forecasts that they will average $2.63/gal in both 2020 and 2021.
Oil Rigs, See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read the latest on oil and rig count
Production to continue at record high, Stockwinners

Most of the production growth in the forecast occurs in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

Publicly traded companies in the space include BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and Total (TOT). 

Ocean Rig sold for $2.7B, Stockwinners
Consolidations should continue in the industry, Stockwinners


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Rig counts decline

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 15 to 781 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 15 rigs from last week to 781, with oil rigs down 11 to 659, gas rigs down 4 to 119, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 3.

 The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 21, Stockwinners
The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 21, Stockwinners

The U.S. Rig Count is down 294 rigs from last year’s count of 1,075, with oil rigs down 214, gas rigs down 83, and miscellaneous rigs up 3 to 3.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 21 unchanged year-over-year.

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Rig Counts Decline- See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read more

The Canada Rig Count is up 118 rigs from last week to 203, with oil rigs up 93 to 120 and gas rigs up 25 to 83.

The Canada Rig Count is up 19 rigs from last year’s count of 184, with oil rigs up 17 and gas rigs up 2.

Crude oil is down 30 cents to $59.25 per barrel. Brent is down 15 cents to $65.22.

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Carrizo Oil & Gas sold for $3.2 billion

Callon Petroleum to acquire Carrizo Oil & Gas in all-stock deal valued at $3.2B

Carrizo sold for $3.2 billion, Stockwinners

Callon Petroleum (CPE) and Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) announced that their Boards of Directors have unanimously approved a definitive agreement under which Callon will acquire Carrizo in an all-stock transaction valued at $3.2B.

This highly complementary combination will create a leading oil and gas company with scaled development operations across a portfolio of core oil-weighted assets in both the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale.

Callon Petroleum buys Carrizo for $3.2B, Stockwinners

Under the terms of the agreement, Carrizo shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 2.05 Callon shares for each share of Carrizo common stock they own.

This represents $13.12 per Carrizo share based on Callon’s closing common stock price on July 12 and a premium of 18% to Carrizo’s trailing 60-day volume weighted average price.

Following the close of the transaction, Callon shareholders will own approximately 54% of the combined company, and Carrizo shareholders will own approximately 46%, on a fully diluted basis.

The all-stock transaction is intended to be tax-free to Carrizo shareholders.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors at both Callon and Carrizo.

In addition, each of the Carrizo directors has committed to vote his or her shares in favor of the transaction.

Upon closing, the Board of Directors of the combined company will consist of 11 members, including Callon’s eight current Board members and three to be appointed from the Board of Carrizo.

The combined company will be led by Callon’s executive management team and will remain headquartered in Houston, Texas.

The transaction, which is expected to close during the fourth quarter, is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, including the approval of shareholders of both companies.

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Rig Counts Declined Last Week!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 4 to 983 rigs

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Rig Counts Declined in the U.S. and Canada, Stockwinners

Baker Hughes (BHGE) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 4 rigs from last week to 983, with oil rigs down 5 to 797, gas rigs up 1 to 186, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

The U.S. Rig Count is down 76 rigs from last year’s count of 1,059, with oil rigs down 62, gas rigs down 12, and miscellaneous rigs down 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is unchanged at 22 and up 3 rigs year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is up 15 rigs from last week to 78, with oil rigs up 16 to 38 and gas rigs down 1 to 40.

The Canada Rig Count is down 3 rigs from last year’s count of 81, with oil rigs up 3 and gas rigs down 6.

The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.

Crude oil is up 40 cents to $58.30 per barrel. Brent crude is up 57 cents to $68.33 per barrel.

Note that crude oil is rebounding from its 100-day moving average. The Commodity topped around $66 per barrel in the Spring.

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Rig counts declined by three

  • Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 3 to 1,022 rigs last week
  • The U.S. Rig Count is up 14 rigs from last year’s count of 1,008
Oil Rigs, See Stockwinners.com Market Radar to read the latest on oil and rig count
Rig counts declined by three, See Stockwinners.com

Baker Hughes (BHGE) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 3 rigs from last week to 1,022, with oil rigs up 2 to 833, gas rigs down 5 to 189, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0.

The U.S. Rig Count is up 14 rigs from last year’s count of 1,008, with oil rigs up 18 to 833, gas rigs down 3 to 189, and miscellaneous rigs down 1.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is up 1 rig to 23 and up 7 rigs year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is down 2 rigs from last week to 66, with oil rigs down 4 to 18 and gas rigs up 2 to 48.

The Canada Rig Count is down 36 rigs from last year’s count of 102, with oil rigs down 23 and gas rigs down 13.

Crude oil (WTI) is up 66 cents to $64.25 per barrel. Brent crude is up 95 cents to $64.27 per barrel.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners
Oil is higher on the new, Stockwinners

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Anadarko Petroleum sold for $50 billion

Chevron to acquire Anadarko for $65 per share or $33B


Anadarko sold for $50 billion, Stockwinners

Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Anadarko Petroleum (APC) to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Anadarko in a stock and cash transaction valued at $33B, or $65 per share.

Based on Chevron’s closing price on April 11, and under the terms of the agreement, Anadarko shareholders will receive 0.3869 shares of Chevron and $16.25 in cash for each Anadarko share.

Chevron sees synergies of $2 billion, Stockwinners

The total enterprise value of the transaction is $50B.

“The acquisition of Anadarko will significantly enhance Chevron’s already advantaged Upstream portfolio and further strengthen its leading positions in large, attractive shale, deepwater and natural gas resource basins.

Furthermore, Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES) is a successful midstream company whose assets are well aligned with the combined companies’ upstream positions, which should further enhance their economics and execution capabilities.”

Chevron’s Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth said, “This transaction builds strength on strength for Chevron. The combination of Anadarko’s premier, high-quality assets with our advantaged portfolio strengthens our leading position in the Permian, builds on our deepwater Gulf of Mexico capabilities and will grow our LNG business.

It creates attractive growth opportunities in areas that play to Chevron’s operational strengths and underscores our commitment to short-cycle, higher-return investments.

This transaction will unlock significant value for shareholders, generating anticipated annual run-rate synergies of approximately $2 billion, and will be accretive to free cash flow and earnings one year after close,” Wirth concluded.

“The strategic combination of Chevron and Anadarko will form a stronger and better company with world-class assets, people and opportunities,” said Anadarko Chairman and CEO Al Walker.

“I have tremendous respect for Mike and his leadership team and believe Chevron’s strategy, scale and operational capabilities will further accelerate the value of Anadarko’s assets.”

The acquisition consideration is structured as 75% stock and 25% cash, providing an overall value of $65 per share based on the closing price of Chevron (CVX) stock on April 11.

In aggregate, upon closing of the transaction, Chevron will issue approximately 200M shares of stock and pay approximately $8B in cash. Chevron will also assume estimated net debt of $15B.

Total enterprise value of $50B includes the assumption of net debt and book value of non-controlling interest.

The transaction has been approved by the boards of both companies and is expected to close in the second half of the year. The acquisition is subject to Anadarko (APC) shareholder approval. It is also subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.

Upon closing, the company will continue be led by Michael Wirth as chairman and CEO. Chevron will remain headquartered in San Ramon, California.

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