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Splunk sold for $28 billion

Cisco to acquire Splunk for $157 per share in cash, or $28B EV

Cisco (CSCO) and Splunk (SPLK) announced a definitive agreement under which Cisco intends to acquire Splunk for $157 per share in cash, representing approximately $28B in equity value.

Upon close of the acquisition, Splunk President and CEO Gary Steele will join Cisco’s Executive Leadership Team reporting to Chair and CEO Chuck Robbins.

The transaction is expected to be cash flow positive and gross margin accretive in the first fiscal year post close, and non-GAAP EPS accretive in year two.

Additionally, it will accelerate Cisco’s revenue growth and gross margin expansion.

The transaction will not impact Cisco’s previously announced share buyback program or dividend program.

The acquisition has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both Cisco and Splunk. It is expected to close by the end of the third quarter of calendar year 2024, subject to regulatory approval and other customary closing conditions including approval by Splunk shareholders.

Splunk Inc, develops and markets cloud services and licensed software solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers unified security and observability platform, including Splunk Security that helps security leaders fortify their organization’s digital resilience by mitigating cyber risk and meeting compliance requirements; and Splunk Observability, which provides visibility across the full stack of infrastructure, applications, and the digital customer experience.

SPLK is up 21% to $144.74. CSCO is down 4% to $53.25.

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Burford Capital Shares Soar on it’s Court Victory

Argentina ordered to pay at least $8.4B in YPF suit with claims owned by Burford

Argentina was ordered to pay at least $8.4B in damages in a U.S. lawsuit over its 2012 re-nationalization of state oil company YPF SA (YPF) in an order issued by U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

The judge awarded the amount to entities backed by litigation funder Burford Capital (BUR), which acquired the right to pursue the claims for $16.6M in 2015.

The decision states in addition: “The Court also rejects the Republic’s effort to inject Burford Capital into these proceedings. This remains a case brought by plaintiffs against a defendant for its wrongful conduct towards them, and the relevant question is what the Republic owes Plaintiffs to compensate them for the loss of the use of their money, not what Plaintiffs have done or will do with what they are owed. The Republic owes no more or less because of Burford Capital’s involvement.”

Judge Loretta Preska

“Argentina has already pledged to appeal, which will likely delay payment for months or even years, but could also complicate its efforts to return to global debt markets,” according to Bloomberg’s reporting on the decision that was posted to the court’s website.

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Capital Provision, and Asset Management and Other Provision. The Capital Provision segment provides capital to the legal industry or in connection with legal matters directly and through investment in private funds. The Asset Management and Other Services segment provides services to the legal industry, including litigation insurance.

YPF Sociedad Anรณnima engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. Its upstream operations include the exploration, exploitation, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. The company’s downstream operations include the refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and petroleum products.

YPF is up 1% to $13.28. BUR is up 20% to $16.70.

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Reata Pharmaceuticals sold for $7.3B

Biogen to acquire Reata Pharmaceuticals for $172.50 per share in cash

Biogen Inc. (BIIB) and Reata Pharmaceuticals (RETA) announced the companies have entered into a definitive agreement under which Biogen has agreed to acquire Reata for $172.50 per share in cash, reflecting an enterprise value of approximately $7.3B.

Reata has made significant advancements developing therapeutics that regulate cellular metabolism and inflammation in serious neurologic diseases.

Biogen sharply higher on data, Stockwinners

Reata’s FDA-approved SKYCLARYS is the first and only approved treatment for Friedreich’s Ataxia in the United States, with a commercial launch underway, and European regulatory review ongoing.

Ataxia is a degenerative disease of the nervous system. Many symptoms of Ataxia mimic those of being drunk, such as slurred speech, stumbling, falling, and incoordination. These symptoms are caused by damage to the cerebellum, the part of the brain that is responsible for coordinating movement. Ataxia treatment involves a combination of medication to treat symptoms and  therapy to improve quality of life.

People affected by Ataxia may experience problems with using their fingers and hands, arms, legs, walking, speaking or moving their eyes. Ataxia affects people of all ages. Age of symptom-onset can vary widely, from childhood to late-adulthood. Complications from the disease are serious and oftentimes debilitating. 

In addition, Reata is developing a portfolio of innovative products for a range of neurological diseases.

The transaction, which was approved by the boards of directors of both companies, is currently anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Biogen expects this acquisition to be accounted for as a business combination.

The acquisition of Reata is expected to be slightly dilutive to Biogen’s Non-GAAP diluted Earnings Per Share in 2023, roughly neutral in 2024, and significantly accretive beginning in 2025, inclusive of associated transaction costs.

Biogen plans to update its Full Year 2023 Financial Guidance in conjunction with its third quarter 2023 earnings release.

Biogen expects to finance the acquisition with cash on hand, supplemented by the issuance of long term debt.

The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Reata stockholders and the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals.

Biogen has entered into voting and support agreements with certain stockholders of Reata representing approximately 36% of the voting power of Reata’s common stock.

RETA is up 52% or $56.90 to $165.37. BIIB is up 1% to $265.58.

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Adenza sold for $10.5 billion

Nasdaq to acquire Adenza from Thoma Bravo for $10.5B in cash and stock

Nasdaq (NDAQ) announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Adenza, a provider of mission-critical risk management and regulatory software to the financial services industry, from Thoma Bravo for $10.5B in cash and shares of common stock.

The acquisition accelerates Nasdaq’s strategic vision to become the trusted fabric of the world’s financial system.

Upon the closing of the transaction, Holden Spaht, a Managing Partner at Thoma Bravo, is expected to be appointed to Nasdaq’s Board of Directors, which will be expanded to twelve members.

Adenza brings an attractive financial profile, with approximately $590M of 2023E revenue, organic revenue growth of approximately 15%, annual recurring revenue growth of 18%, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 58%.

The company has a loyal and growing client base, with 98% gross retention, 115% net retention, and a durable mix of approximately 80% recurring revenue.

The addition of Adenza is projected to enhance Nasdaq’s already strong financial profile by growing Solutions Businesses revenue from 71% of total revenue today to 77% in 2023E, increasing adjusted EBITDA margin to 57%, and adding approximately $300M of annual unlevered pre-tax cash flow.

Nasdaq is acquiring Adenza for $10.5B, comprised of $5.75B in cash and 85.6M shares of Nasdaq common stock, based on the volume-weighted average price per share over 15 consecutive trading days prior to signing.

Nasdaq has obtained fully committed bridge financing for the cash portion of the consideration and plans to issue approximately $5.9B of debt between signing and closing and use the proceeds to replace the bridge commitment.

At the closing of the transaction, Nasdaq will issue the shares to the owners of Adenza, which is a company controlled by Thoma Bravo, representing approximately 14.9% of the outstanding shares of Nasdaq.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions and is expected to close within six to nine months.

NDAQ is down 11% to $51.30.

Following the Adenza transaction, Nasdaq expects leverage of approximately 4.7x and investment grade ratings of BBB/Baa2 Stable.

Nasdaq is committed to reducing leverage to 4.0x in 18 months and to approximately 3.3x in 36 months. Nasdaq intends to pursue its existing capital deployment plan, including steadily increasing its dividend per share and dividend payout ratio to achieve 35%-38% within three to four years.

The company intends to repurchase shares over time to partially offset dilution from the transaction in addition to continuing to offset employee share-based compensation.

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PGA TOUR and LIV Golf to Merge, Ending Lawsuits

PGA TOUR confirms deal to merge with LIV Golf

The PGA TOUR, DP World Tour (formerly known as the European Tour) and the Public Investment Fund announced a landmark agreement to unify the game of golf, on a global basis.

The proposed merger comes after the PGA Tour and LIV Golf have been embroiled in lawsuits regarding antitrust claims.

The deal would end all pending litigation.

The parties have signed an agreement that combines PIF’s golf-related commercial businesses and rights — including LIV Golf — with the commercial businesses and rights of the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour into a new, collectively owned, for-profit entity to ensure that all stakeholders benefit from a model that delivers maximum excitement and competition among the game’s best players.

In addition, PIF will make a capital investment into the new entity to facilitate its growth and success.

The new entity will implement a plan to grow these combined commercial businesses, drive greater fan engagement and accelerate growth initiatives already underway.

This announcement will be followed by a mutually agreed end to all pending litigation between the participating parties, the companies said.

Further, the three organizations will work cooperatively and in good faith to establish a fair and objective process for any players who desire to re-apply for membership with the PGA TOUR or the DP World Tour following the completion of the 2023 season and for determining fair criteria and terms of re-admission, consistent with each Tour’s policies.

Furthermore, the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia has been involved in promoting golf through its support for the Saudi International tournament, which is part of the European Tour. The PIF has been investing in various sectors, including sports and entertainment, as part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan to diversify the country’s economy.

“We are pleased to move forward, in step with LIV and PIF’s world-class investing experience, and I applaud PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan for his vision and collaborative and forward-thinking approach that is not just a solution to the rift in our game, but also a commitment to taking it to new heights.

This will engender a new era in global golf, for the better.” Under the terms of the agreement, the Board of Directors of the new entity will oversee and direct all the new entity’s golf-related commercial operations, businesses and investments.

Did you know PGA Tour is a non-profit, tax exempt entity?

Separately, PGA TOUR Inc. will remain in place as a 501(c)(6) tax exempt organization and retains administrative oversight of events for those assets contributed by the PGA TOUR, including the sanctioning of events, the administration of the competition and rules, as well as all other “inside the ropes” responsibilities, with Jay Monahan as Commissioner and Ed Herlihy as PGA TOUR Policy Board Chairman.

Companies that offer golf products include Acushnet Holdings (GOLF) and Topgolf Callaway (MODG).

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Rig Counts declined last week!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 9 to 711 rigs.

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 9 from last week to 711 with oil rigs down 5 to 570, gas rigs down 4 to 137 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

The U.S. Rig Count is down 16 rigs from last year’s count of 727 with oil rigs down 4, gas rigs down 14 and miscellaneous up 2.

The international offshore rig count for April 2018 was 194. Stockwinners

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 20, up 4 year-over-year.

The Canada Rig Count is up 2 from last week to 87, with oil rigs up 3 to 42, gas rigs down 1 to 45.

The Canada Rig Count is down 16 rigs from last year’s count of 103 with oil down 13, gas rigs down 3.

The Baker Hughes rig counts are counts of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the U.S., Canada and international markets.

The Company has issued the rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of the U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. The monthly international rig count was initiated in 1975.

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West Texas Intermediateย (WTI) is up $1.08 to $72.86ย per barrel (52 weeks high of $122.10). Brent crude is up $1.07 to $77.12 per barre (52 weeks high of $123.58).ย Gasoline last traded at $2.702ย per gallon (52 weeks high of $4.31 per gallon).

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility.

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Japan’s Mizuho Financial buys Greenhill

Mizuho Financial Group to acquire Greenhill & Co. for $15 per share in cash

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) and Greenhill & Co., Inc. (GHL) announced a definitive agreement for Mizuho to acquire Greenhill in an all-cash transaction at $15 per share, reflecting an enterprise value of approximately $550M, including assumed debt.

Greenhill & Co., Inc.provides financial and strategic advisory services to corporations, partnerships, institutional investors, and governments worldwide. The company offers advisory services related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings, financings, private capital raising, and other similar transactions.

Through this transaction, Mizuho will accelerate its investment banking growth strategy, building on Greenhill’s 27-year history of advising important clients on significant mergers & acquisitions, restructurings and capital raising transactions.

Following completion of the transaction, Greenhill will operate globally from its 15 locations around the world as the M&A and restructuring advisory business of Mizuho.

That business will maintain the Greenhill brand, and the existing Greenhill leadership team will remain in place. Greenhill Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Scott Bok will become Chairman of the M&A and restructuring advisory business.

Current Greenhill Co-Presidents Kevin Costantino and David Wyles will become Co-Heads of the business.

The Greenhill business will sit within Mizuho’s banking division, led by Michal Katz, Head of Banking in the Americas.

With this transaction, Mizuho will welcome Greenhill’s 370 employees, as well as the valued client relationships they have built around the world.

Both management teams are committed to a seamless transition for all clients and employees.

The transaction is expected to close by year end and is subject to approval by Greenhill stockholders, as well as required regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.

GHL gained $7.88 to close at $14.66.

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility.

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Krystal Biotech shares jump as FDA approves Vyjuvek

Vyjuvek is designed to treat the genetic root cause of DEB

Krystal Biotech (KRYS) announced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Vyjuvek for the treatment of patients six months of age or older with dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa, or DEB.

DEB is a rare disease that appears at birth or during the first few years of life, and lasts a lifetime. Prognosis is variable, but tends to be serious. Life expectancy isย 50 years, and the disease brings with it complications related to infections, nutrition and neoplastic complications.

“Vyjuvek is designed to address the genetic root cause of DEB by delivering functional copies of the human COL7A1 gene to provide wound healing and sustained functional COL7 protein expression with redosing.

Vyjuvek is the first-ever redosable gene therapy and the first and only medicine approved by the FDA for the treatment of DEB, both recessive and dominant, that can be administered by a healthcare professional in either a healthcare professional setting or in the home,” the company stated.

With this approval, the FDA issued the Company a Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher, or PRV, which confers priority review to a subsequent drug application that would not otherwise qualify for priority review, the company noted.

“Vyjuvek is expected to be available in the United States in the third quarter of 2023, and the company will begin the promotion of Vyjuvek immediately.

Outside of the US, the European Medicines Agency has granted Vyjuvek orphan drug designation and PRIME – PRIority MEdicines – eligibility for the treatment of DEB.

The Company anticipates starting the official Marketing Authorization Application procedure in the second half of 2023 with a potential approval in 2024.

The Company is also working with the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency in Japan to study Vyjuvek and seek approval for potential launch in 2025,” the company added.

KRYS is up 8.7% to $95.00 per share on heavy trading volume.

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Eli Lilly Shares Higher on Alzheimer’s Drug!

Eli Lilly TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 met primary endpoint, all secondary endpoint

Eli Lilly (LLY) announced results of the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 Phase 3 study showing that donanemab significantly slowed cognitive and functional decline in people with early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease.

Eli Lilly announces Alimta label expanded by FDA, Stockwinners

Donanemab met the primary endpoint of change from baseline until 18 months on the integrated Alzheimer’s Disease Rating Scale, or iADRS.

The primary endpoint of iADRS measures cognition and activities of daily living such as managing finances, driving, engaging in hobbies, and conversing about current events.

All secondary endpoints of cognitive and functional decline were also met and showed highly statistically significant clinical benefits with similar magnitude.

Based on these results, Lilly will proceed with global regulatory submissions as quickly as possible and anticipates making a submission to the FDA yet this quarter.

Lilly will work with the FDA and other global regulators to achieve the fastest path to traditional approvals.

TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, evaluated the safety and efficacy of donanemab, an investigational amyloid plaque targeting therapy.

The study enrolled people with early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease, or AD, which includes mild cognitive impairment, or MCI, and the mild dementia stage of disease, with the confirmed presence of AD neuropathology, and participants completed their course of treatment with donanemab once they reached a prespecified level of amyloid plaque clearance.

Biogen sharply higher on data, Stockwinners

Participants in TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 were stratified by their level of the brain protein tau, a predictive biomarker for Alzheimer’s disease progression. The primary analysis population for which the study was powered was comprised of people with an intermediate level of tau and clinical symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease.

In this population, the primary endpoint (iADRS) showed 35% slowing of decline, and an important key secondary endpoint showed 36% slowing of decline over 18 months.

Additional pre-specified secondary analyses showed: 47% of participants on donanemab showed no decline on CDR-SB, a key measure of disease severity at 1 year. 52% of participants completed their course of treatment by 1 year and 72% completed by 18 months as a result of achieving plaque clearance.

Participants on donanemab had 40% less decline in ability to perform activities of daily living at 18 months. Participants on donanemab experienced a 39% lower risk of progressing to the next stage of disease compared to placebo.

The study also enrolled a smaller number of people with high levels of tau at baseline, representing a later stage of disease progression.

Because these participants were predicted to progress more quickly and be less responsive to therapy, the target population for the study was the intermediate tau population. The high tau participants were combined with the intermediate tau population in an additional primary analysis of all participants enrolled. In this combined population, donanemab also demonstrated meaningful positive results across all clinical endpoints, with CDR-SB and iADRS showing 29% and 22% slowing of decline, respectively. The incidence of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities was consistent with the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ Phase 2 study.

Infusion-related reactions occurred in 8.7% of participants with most cases mild to moderate in severity. In addition to slowing cognitive and functional decline in TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2, donanemab produced significant reductions in brain amyloid plaque levels as early as 6 months after initiating treatment, as observed using amyloid positron emission tomography brain scan, with many patients reaching amyloid levels considered negative for pathology1.

Alzheimer’s disease is a progressive brain disorder that affects memory, thinking, and behavior. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), around 50 million people worldwide have dementia, and the most common cause of dementia is Alzheimer’s disease.

In the United States, it is estimated that around 6 million people have Alzheimer’s disease. This number is expected to increase as the population ages.

The economic effect of Alzheimer’s disease is significant. According to the Alzheimer’s Association, in 2021, the total cost of caring for people with Alzheimer’s and other dementias in the United States is projected to reach $355 billion. This includes the cost of medical care, long-term care, and lost wages for family caregivers. By 2050, these costs are projected to increase to $1.1 trillion.

The economic impact is not just limited to the United States. Alzheimer’s disease has a global economic impact, with estimated costs of around $1 trillion in 2018. As the population ages, the economic impact is expected to increase.

LLY shares are up $25 to $429.15 or 6% on the day. Shares of Biogen (BIIB) which has a competing drug are down $5 to $310.03.

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What is an Inverted Bond?

Bond market predicts a recession ahead

Inverted bond chart, also known as the yield curve inversion, is a powerful economic indicator that has garnered significant attention in recent years. In simple terms, an inverted bond chart is when the yield on short-term bonds exceeds the yield on long-term bonds. This event is considered a warning sign of an impending economic recession. In this article, we will explore what an inverted bond chart is, how it works, and what it means for investors.

What is an Inverted Bond Chart?

A bond is essentially an IOU issued by a borrower, such as a company or a government, to an investor. The bond pays interest to the investor at a certain rate, also known as the yield. The yield on a bond is determined by the prevailing interest rates in the economy and the creditworthiness of the borrower. Generally, the longer the maturity of the bond, the higher the yield investors demand. This is because investors demand a premium for lending their money for a longer period, as there is more risk involved.

An inverted bond chart is when the yield on short-term bonds exceeds the yield on long-term bonds. This is a rare occurrence and happens when investors lose confidence in the economy’s future prospects. Normally, investors expect to receive a higher yield on long-term bonds because they are taking a greater risk by lending their money for a longer period. However, when investors are worried about the economy’s prospects, they demand higher yields on short-term bonds as they are more concerned about the immediate future. This demand for short-term bonds drives down their yields and causes the yield curve to invert.

How Does an Inverted Bond Chart Work?

An inverted bond chart works by reflecting the market’s expectations of future economic growth and inflation. When investors are optimistic about the economy’s future prospects, they demand lower yields on short-term bonds as they believe that interest rates will remain low in the future. This optimism drives up the yields on long-term bonds as investors are willing to lend their money for a longer period.

Conversely, when investors are pessimistic about the economy’s future prospects, they demand higher yields on short-term bonds as they believe that interest rates will rise in the future. This pessimism drives down the yields on long-term bonds as investors are less willing to lend their money for a longer period. This creates an inverted bond chart as the yields on short-term bonds exceed those on long-term bonds.

What Does an Inverted Bond Chart Mean for Investors?

An inverted bond chart is a warning sign of an impending economic recession. Historically, every recession in the United States since 1950 has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. This is because an inverted bond chart signals that investors are worried about the future prospects of the economy and are demanding higher yields on short-term bonds. This demand for short-term bonds drives down their yields and causes the yield curve to invert.

Investors should take an inverted bond chart seriously, as it indicates that the economy is likely to experience a slowdown in the near future. This can have significant implications for their investment portfolios. During a recession, the stock market tends to perform poorly, and investors may experience significant losses if they are not properly diversified. Additionally, companies may cut dividends, leading to a decrease in income for investors who rely on dividends for income.

Investors should consider adjusting their portfolios in response to an inverted bond chart. This may involve reducing exposure to stocks and increasing exposure to bonds, particularly those with short maturities. Short-term bonds are less affected by changes in interest rates and are less volatile than long-term bonds, making them a good option for investors during a recession. Investors may also consider investing in defensive stocks, such as utilities and consumer staples, as these tend to perform well during economic downturns.

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility.

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Shares of Block lower on short seller report!

Block intends to explore legal action against Hindenburg Research

#Hindenburg Research has published a short report on Block (SQ), formerly known as Square, stating that the firm’s “2-year investigation has concluded that Block has systematically taken advantage of the demographics it claims to be helping.

The “magic” behind Block’s business has not been disruptive innovation, but rather the company’s willingness to facilitate fraud against consumers and the government, avoid regulation, dress up predatory loans and fees as revolutionary technology, and mislead investors with inflated metrics.”

The firm, which discloses that it has taken a short position in shares of Block, contends that the company “has misled investors on key metrics, and embraced predatory offerings and compliance worst-practices in order to fuel growth and profit from facilitation of fraud against consumers and the government.”

In addition, it believes “Jack Dorsey has built an empire-and amassed a $5 billion personal fortune-professing to care deeply about the demographics he is taking advantage of. With Dorsey and top executives already having sold over $1 billion in equity on Block’s meteoric pandemic run higher, they have ensured they will be fine, regardless of the outcome for everyone else.”

Block Responds

Block said in a statement: “We intend to work with the SEC and explore legal action against #Hindenburg Research for the factually inaccurate and misleading report they shared about our Cash App business today.

Hindenburg is known for these types of attacks, which are designed solely to allow short sellers to profit from a declined stock price. We have reviewed the full report in the context of our own data and believe it’s designed to deceive and confuse investors. We are a highly regulated public company with regular disclosures, and are confident in our products, reporting, compliance programs, and controls. We will not be distracted by typical short seller tactics.”

Robert Baird

Baird analyst David #Koning comments on a short report that is significantly weighing on Block shares in pre-market trading, noting that the report implies that the company’s CashApp is reasonably easy, or relatively easier than other banking services, for criminals to use and claims that CashApp is somewhat complicit in allowing this type of behavior.

However, the firm believes Block helps many underbanked access the financial markets and “like any organization probably has some clients that are criminals.” The firm views the stock as good value, but is concerned with the prevalence of any criminal activity and how this could impact investor sentiment, estimating that “in a pretty dire case” shedding 20% of accounts could impact about 8% of total gross profit. Baird has an Outperform rating and $92 price target on Block shares, which are down about 20% to $58.07 in early trading following Hindenburg Research’s short report.

KeyBanc

KeyBanc analyst Josh #Beck sees “no merit to the disparaging claims” made against Block by a “smaller outfit” that published a short report and rather views the report as “observations from a relatively novice industry outsider who is not familiar with standard operating practices and principles within the FinTech industry.”

The firm, which said Block is subject to numerous laws and regulations as a financial services provider, believes Block “fully complies with applicable regulations and laws and prevents the maximal amount of fraud possible within a business that is inherently subject to, while not immune to, any instances of fraud.” KeyBanc has an Overweight rating and $100 price target on Block shares,ย 

Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Dan #Dolev says Hindenburg Research’s short report “makes valid arguments,” such as the slowdown in inflows and sustainability of the instant deposit fees.

While this might increase regulatory scrutiny, other claims and risks around high, unregulated interchange fees and definition of monthly users are well known to investors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says other aspects of the report, like adding back stock based compensation after Block publicly shifted focus to include non-cash expenses in operating income, “may hold less water.”

Mizuho says the near-term bull case on Blok remains reaching better than expected profits helped by cost control. The long-term bull case remains creating a “unique” closed-loop payments network by connecting merchants and consumers, the firm adds. It has a Buy rating on the stock with a $93 price target.

Raymond James

Raymond James contends that this morning’s short report on Block issued by Hindenburg Research doesn’t include a lot of “new” news or a “bombshell” and argues that the biggest risk is potentially drawing scrutiny from regulators and politicians, which could create an overhang on the stock.

However, given the situation concerning SVB Financial (SIVB) and the current banking fallout, the firm would guess “this is way down the list of priorities” for financial regulators at this time.

The firm, which adds that “while being accused of overstating users certainly isn’t positive,” notes that there are no accusations of fraudulent accounting and the “revenue is real.” Raymond James has a Market Perform rating on Block shares.

RBC Capital

RBC Capital analyst Daniel Perlin made no change to the firm’s Outperform rating or $95 price target on shares of Block. The firm says the short report that was released today focuses on Block’s “underbanked” user base, as being a series of bad actors, enabling the overstatement of its users metrics, as well as BNPL via its acquisition of Afterpay, systematically embracing predatory pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

RBC Capital’s view of the stock is unchanged, but thinks the negative overhang can persist for some time.

Shares of Block are down 20% to $58.10.

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North American rail traffic declined 3.4% last week

North American rail traffic down 3.4% for the week ending February 25

The Association of American Railroads, AAR reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending February 25, as well as volumes for February 2023.

U.S. railroads originated 905,744 carloads in February 2023, down 1.6% or 15,101 carloads, from February 2022.

U.S. railroads also originated 943,979 containers and trailers in February 2023, down 8.4%, or 86,351 units, from the same month last year.

Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in February 2023 were 1,849,723, down 5.2%, or 101,452 carloads and intermodal units from February 2022.

“Coal, chemicals, and grain together account for more than half of all non-intermodal U.S. rail volume.

When all three are down, like they were in February, it’s very hard for total carloads not to be down too,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray.

“On the positive side, several commodities including crushed stone and sand, petroleum products, steel products, grain mill and food products showed very strong performances.”

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 459,233 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.9% compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending February 25 were 226,435 carloads, up 0.1% compared with the same week in 2022, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 232,798 containers and trailers, down 11.1% compared to 2022.

North American rail volume for the week ending February 25 on 12 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 327,221 carloads, up 2.9% compared with the same week last year, and 308,029 intermodal units, down 9.3% compared with last year.

Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 635,250 carloads and intermodal units, down 3.4%.

Publicly traded companies in the space include CSX (CSX), Canadian National (CNI), Canadian Pacific (CP), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Union Pacific (UNP), Greenbrier (GBX), Trinity Industries (TRN), FreightCar America (RAIL) and Wabtec (WAB).

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Netflix Outlines Methods to Stop Credential Sharing

Netflix provides update on sharing guidelines as 100M households share accounts

In an “update on sharing,” Netflix (NFLX) said that,

“Today, over 100 million households are sharing accounts – impacting our ability to invest in great new TV and films.

So over the last year, we’ve been exploring different approaches to address this issue in Latin America, and we’re now ready to roll them out more broadly in the coming months, starting today in Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain.

Our focus has been on giving members greater control over who can access their account.

Set primary location: We’ll help members set this up, ensuring that anyone who lives in their household can use their Netflix account.

Manage account access and devices: Members can now easily manage who has access to their account from our new Manage Access and Devices page.

Transfer profile: People using an account can now easily transfer a profile to a new account, which they pay for – keeping their personalized recommendations, viewing history, My List, saved games and more.

Netflix Spain raises prices

Watch while you travel: Members can still easily watch Netflix on their personal devices or log into a new TV, like at a hotel or holiday rental.

Netflix Canada raises prices

Buy an extra member: Members on our Standard or Premium plan in many countries (including Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain) can add an extra member sub account for up to two people they don’t live with – each with a profile, personalized recommendations, login and password – for an extra CAD$7.99 a month per person in Canada, NZD$7.99 in New Zealand, Euro 3.99 in Portugal, and Euro 5.99 in Spain.”

NFLX is up $1.26 to $364.15.

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Rig Counts Declined last week!

Baker Hughes reports U.S. rig count down 12 to 759 rigs

Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. rig count is down 12 from last week to 759 with oil rigs down 10 to 599, gas rigs down 2 to 158 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2.

The U.S. Rig Count is up 146 rigs from last year’s count of 613 with oil rigs up 102, gas rigs up 42 and miscellaneous up 2.

The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is down 1 to 12, down 4 year-over-year. The Canada Rig Count is up 2 from last week to 249, with oil rigs up 2 to 159, gas rigs unchanged at 90.

The Canada Rig Count is up 31 rigs from last year’s count of 218 with oil rigs up 23, gas rigs up 8.

The Baker Hughes rig counts are counts of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the U.S., Canada and international markets.

The Company has issued the rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of the U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. The monthly international rig count was initiated in 1975.

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West Texas Intermediateย (WTI) is down $2.05 to $73.81ย per barrel (down from a high of $123.70). Brent crude is down $2.06 to $80.19 per barre (down from a high of $127.98).ย Gasoline last traded at $2.349ย per gallon (down from a high of $4.31 per gallon).

To read timely stories similar to this, along with money making trade ideas, sign up for a membership to Stockwinners.

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Stockwinners Portfolio returns 22.8% in 2022

S&P 500 declined 19.6% during the same period

The bear market of 2022 cost most investors dearly whereas Stockwinners readers were able to register double digit returns. Our experience in the past 24 years has taught us how to avoid pitfall of following crowds and Wall Street gurus. In fact, we stayed away from story stocks such Tesla (TSLA), Paypal Holdings (PYPL) and Meta Platform (META). We concentrated on small to medium cap stocks. These stocks typically do not have any exposure to overseas markets and are traded on their own fundamentals.

Russian invasion of Ukraine created unique trading opportunities for investors. The vicious invasion of Ukraine caused energy and commodity prices skyrocket thus offering opportunities in that space. In fact, one of our better performers on the year was EPAM System (EPAM). This software company has about 25 percent of its workforce located in the eastern European country. Those who bought the stock based on our recommendations were rewarded with a 23% return in two days.

Energy stocks were awakened with the invasion. Crude oil shot up to $106.50 from $70 per barrel. This price increase buoyed energy stocks. Amongst our better performers were shares of Par Pacific Holdings (PARR). The refiner shares gained fifteen percent following our recommendations.

Other commodity stocks that were featured in our portfolio included those involved in precious and rare minerals mining. Livent Corporation (LTHM) was one such name. The lithium miner was featured several times with solid returns. The returns were 14%, 12% and 18%. Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML) was another name in the sector. It gained 14% following our recommendations.

Sierra Wireless, Inc. (SWIR) was another stock that came to our attention. The company provides device-to-cloud Internet of Things (IoT) solutions. Shares were featured in August with success. Stock gained 18 percents in two weeks.

We featured put options (shorting the stock) on several names. One of the names featured was Open Text Corporation (OTEX). Put option on the name returned 325% in 17 days. The put was featured at $1.50 and it was closed 17 days later at $6.40. Another name that was featured several times was Carvana (CVNA). Shares of the used car retailer have fallen from $300 to $3.55.

A strong employment market created opportunity in placement companies. Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. (CCRN) was such name. The company places medical staff. Shares were featured in August and gained 18% in less than two weeks.

Our portfolio can be downloaded here. Additionally, one may download our selections for the past 18 years in a spreadsheet format.

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